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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

snku_024h.us_ma.png

I wonder what the difference is that wxbell sees? thats weird. 

gfs_snow_Ku_acc_charlotte_27.png

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1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

It uses the JB calculation. 

:lol:

Bufkit showed 3.8 for RDU. 13:1 ratios to start, increasing to 18:1. 

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Yea its ratios. Rare we see it working in the favorable direction from 10:1 base. Id be ecstatic with a 2-3 inch fluffer followed by several days of temps ruining 10 or more BN. 

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It is absolutely pouring outside. Has been all morning. My low temp came at 12:05am and was 57.8°. Currently sitting at 62.4° under heavy, and I mean heavy, rain. Wouldn’t surprise me to hear a few rumbles of thunder out of this.


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Good news with the indices today:

PNA - Now looks to stay positive into the LR **last couple of days it was showing negative

AO - Continues to show strongly negative

NAO - Continues to show positive **but what's new 

I'll take a +PNA and -AO combo any day. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

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Light band of precip moving through ATM. Snow flurries mixing in with light rain. 

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Another thing to keep in mind are soil temps.  ( I know, I know....)

Highs will be in the 50s next week...  nightly lows will help.  I just don't like rain changing to snow situations...  Ground gets all wet and saturated and snow has a hard time sticking.

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Had snowflakes for a few moments in Acworth, GA. Thankfully it stopped... didn't restock my bread and beer supply.

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  • Haha 2

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I had a mini monsoon (TS force winds that sounded like my roof was going to blow off combined with a blinding rain) last night that gave me 2.6" of rain... Nkw only if that 2.6" was with the temp below freezing:cry:

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I had a mini monsoon (TS force winds that sounded like my roof was going to blow off combined with a blinding rain) last night that gave me 2.6" of rain... Nkw only if that 2.6" was with the temp below freezing:cry:

I’ve had 2.05” since midnight with winds gusting to 20 knots.

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The GFS has a high of 19 degrees for RDU next Thursday. The all time record low max is 17. 

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Just now, Queencitywx said:

Next thursday might be the coldest day of the year. 

if the 12z gfs is right with highs in the teens up your way, it would be impressive if it wasn't the coldest day lol. Even the downslope screwzone might stay below freezing. 

for several runs now the gfs has been showing dewpoints that if came to pass would surely be some of the lowest we have ever seen.....and to see it over such a large area is even more impressive. Although WAA commences after this, Have to believe the gfs is  too warm though with morning lows the next day with high pressure becoming situated  directly over head in the carolinas thursday night/friday morning with dewpoints still in the negative teens. 

gfs_Td2m_seus_30.png

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1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

GFS not quite as good this run with fropa snowfall in NC next week

Nope, and the Canadian went down as well. 

But on the positive side, the Canadian does have a nice storm showing in the 8/9 day range............................................................................. 

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4 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Nope, and the Canadian went down as well. 

But on the positive side, the Canadian does have a nice storm showing in the 8/9 day range............................................................................. 

:facepalm:

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17 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Nope, and the Canadian went down as well. 

But on the positive side, the Canadian does have a nice storm showing in the 8/9 day range............................................................................. 

The 0z EURO Control had something similar to the CMC around that time frame...

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20 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Nope, and the Canadian went down as well. 

But on the positive side, the Canadian does have a nice storm showing in the 8/9 day range............................................................................. 

always 8-10 days away, at least its something to follow.

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Just now, Tacoma said:

always 8-10 days away, at least its something to follow.

Yeah, I guess it's better than having nothing. You would think that one of these 8-10 day storms will eventually work out. 

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l

10 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The 0z EURO Control had something similar to the CMC around that time frame...

Let's see if it's still there when the 12z rolls out

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The QPF is still there for the post frontal stuff, the timing just oscillated 6 hours faster.

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1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

Yeah, I guess it's better than having nothing. You would think that one of these 8-10 day storms will eventually work out. 

I keep hoping every time I see that a storm is showing I keep thinking and hoping that will be the storm that holds but here lately things fall apart before they get started good, :axe:

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I just don't get all the talk about the threats that seem to evaporate.  To be honest, we haven't had a legit board wide threat yet.  One model showing a board wide storm to me does not make a threat. It's interesting and something to watch that gives some hope, but its not a threat in my eyes.  Give me three major models showing it 3 runs straight and we have a legit threat.  Except for the ice a couple of weeks ago, there hasn't been a legit threat for NC east of the mountains since the early December storm.  Any one run flashes of a decent storm shown by the models have all been quickly dropped and rightfully so......... for obvious reasons.

I remember winter of '93.  There was a lot of hype about how great the pattern seemed to be, but nothing ever worked out or materialized of any consequence Jan-early March.  Then, well you know.  I'm kind of thinking we'll get something similar this year.  We'll have to wait to near the end and then it will happen and then we'll flip to spring.  I'm okay with that.

TW

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4 hours ago, tramadoc said:

It is absolutely pouring outside. Has been all morning. My low temp came at 12:05am and was 57.8°. Currently sitting at 62.4° under heavy, and I mean heavy, rain. Wouldn’t surprise me to hear a few rumbles of thunder out of this.


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Heard some thunder in Kitty Hawk this morning. Probably around 10:30 to 11:00.

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I'll always be skeptical about rain to snow scenarios following a cold front. In our neck of the woods we tend to run out of precip before sufficiently cold air arrives. The Arctic front a couple of days ago was supposed to be rain-snow but precip ended before we even got to 40. 

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