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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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25 minutes ago, griteater said:

GFS track for Monday Low is Bay of Campeche > Western Cuba > Bahamas  :arrowhead:

That's perfect for us coastal guys. We have plenty of room for nw shifts lol

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The more I look at these model runs the more frustrating it gets.... 1-2" rainfalls, the dry and cold several days, then it warms up enough to give us another rain. Then it gets cold and dry again... a "Rinse & Repeat" pattern

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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

The more I look at these model runs the more frustrating it gets.... 1-2" rainfalls, the dry and cold several days, then it warms up enough to give us another rain. Then it gets cold and dry again... a "Rinse & Repeat" pattern

Something has to shake this up. Hopefully it real soon. 

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7 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Something has to shake this up. Hopefully it real soon. 

Don’t worry, the pacific jet will shake things up plenty.... :(

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Canadian and fv3 look really good for next Tuesday into wednesday and more on their heels for latter in the week. 7 day mark. See if the models can hang onto this and get inside 5 days. Not depending on a pv lobe for cold. Nice 1040 hp. Pure snow sounding in most of carolinas. Canadian consolidates energy alot better at h5. Cant use the crapfest ole gfs. Does another northern call cutoff . What a pathetic model. 

7 days isnt what anyone wants to hear. But it all, including this weekends wide right miss, fits the bill of what has been advertised. Post jan 25th pattern change to a great look. So it has legs, lets see if it can play it out or throw egg in our face.

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2 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

We have the ICON/EURO/GFS all agreeing on arctic front snow at day 7. 

Check out 18z canadian and fv3 for next Tues/Wed. Lot more easier to do than this tightrope phase we where hoping to pull off and still could enc espeacilly. But even there high odds still.

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3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Check out 18z canadian and fv3 for next Tues/Wed. Lot more easier to do than this tightrope phase we where hoping to pull off and still could enc espeacilly. But even there high odds still.

18z FV3 looks good for next week... can u post image of 18z Canadian??

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59 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The more I look at these model runs the more frustrating it gets.... 1-2" rainfalls, the dry and cold several days, then it warms up enough to give us another rain. Then it gets cold and dry again... a "Rinse & Repeat" pattern

same here can cause a man to pull his hair out, soaking rains then dry and cold, soaking rains then dry and cold.  Odds are the moisture and the cold are going to meet up but boy are the odds against us.  :weep:

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1 minute ago, WeathermanTy said:

Can someone anyone post the 18z CMC for nxt Tue and Wed? I want to compare the 12z and 18z. 

Its 12z canadian and 18z fv3. 12z canadian is a beaut at h5. My typo mistake

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1 hour ago, JoshM said:

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_33.png

That’s odd. Looks eerily similar to the last dud we tracked at this range. Definitely feels like we’re stuck but it can’t not snow forever

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Just now, WarmNose said:

That’s odd. Looks eerily similar to the last dud we tracked at this range. Definitely feels like we’re stuck but it can’t not snow forever

The setups are completely different at H5 and this setup verbatim would have a nice cold high to the north 

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19 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

That’s odd. Looks eerily similar to the last dud we tracked at this range. Definitely feels like we’re stuck but it can’t not snow forever

Mother nature:  challenge accepted

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5 minutes ago, gearhead302 said:

Start the thread already....

Hell no, got burned by the 28th, NOT doing it again! If it is still there in a few days I might

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47 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Its 12z canadian and 18z fv3. 12z canadian is a beaut at h5. My typo mistake

Looks pretty good. I would like to see a low that overruns from the west or sw, like the one the Canadian showed yesterday. This one on the Fv3 18z shows another low sagging down from the NW and trying to go through the mtns. Invariably  it will cause a down sloping lee side min for the foothills and upstate. Is there no way to get a southern slider when it's cold enough for snow?

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36 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Looks pretty good. I would like to see a low that overruns from the west or sw, like the one the Canadian showed yesterday. This one on the Fv3 18z shows another low sagging down from the NW and trying to go through the mtns. Invariably  it will cause a down sloping lee side min for the foothills and upstate. Is there no way to get a southern slider when it's cold enough for snow?

Quite honestly, the early December setup / 500mb configuration was excellent (southern slider w/ NE confluence and sfc high)....we (Greenville to Charlotte) need the early Dec configuration to go with the current cold air masses we have to our north/northwest.  The 500mb configuration right now (Hudson Bay vortex) isn't the best, but can work. 

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This may be somewhat off topic.. feel free to move it elsewhere, mods. But I honestly feel like our “winter winter” shortcomings in our region would make for a great episode for the new ‘Twilight Zone.’ In all honesty, it’s been rather difficult to watch these models back off from what looked to be a glorious system for must of us. A lot of you lucked out there past two winters, I unfortunately haven’t been as fortunate. But I hope by March we can all say, for once, that we “lucked out.” We’re so overdue for the big one. Thank you for all the information that you all provide. I have learned so much as a amateur.

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31 minutes ago, griteater said:

Quite honestly, the early December setup / 500mb configuration was excellent (southern slider w/ NE confluence and sfc high)....we (Greenville to Charlotte) need the early Dec configuration to go with the current cold air masses we have to our north/northwest.  The 500mb configuration right now (Hudson Bay vortex) isn't the best, but can work. 

And therein lies the problem with this area. 

Sure, the maybe storm Tue/Wed would be easier than a phase etc...but phases and coastal bombs are how we get the big snow here. 

Id rather have cold air here and hope for the gulf sliders going up the east coast.  Anything in between is extra and helps it feel like winter. 

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 Nam shoves energy futher east on h5 for begining of weekend storm. Interested to see this thing by friday as its getting sampled. Feel like we havnt heard the last from it.

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16 minutes ago, SouthCentralWakeCo said:

0z RGEM for tomorrow morning

B5C7E1E9-2515-4EAB-8655-7316AD09513D.gif

I'm gonna lay my money on too dry to have significant impact but enough for a 2 hour school delay.  It is bone dry outside.

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Well 0z GFS is rolling.  Wonder if it will pick anything up this time around.  Maybe see what GEM and Euro are spottily seeing.  It's been notta past few runs 

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