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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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12 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Man the end if that FV3 run was brutal... A 24hr ice storm for South Carolina

Models are struggling inside 7 days now so I look at nothing they say as credible beyond that and take anything inside 7 days with the biggest grain of salt possible.

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3 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Models are struggling inside 7 days now so I look at nothing they say as credible beyond that and take anything inside 7 days with the biggest grain of salt possible.

Oh I am, but still, that would be a total nightmare if that verified...

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Euro has arctic front snow(light) for most of NC and SC then another major arctic push day 9 with heavy snow through Tennessee/North Alabama/North Georgia with the snow line probably about to crash through the NC foothills and piedmont.

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2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Euro has arctic front snow(light) for most of NC and SC then another major arctic push day 9 with heavy snow through Tennessee/North Alabama/North Georgia with the snow line probably about to crash through the NC foothills and piedmont.

Make that extreme NW Ga

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5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Make that extreme NW Ga

Wasn't the euro showing something in he 216hr yesterday as well.  Any pics? 

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After looking over 12z , still not settled and all options on the table. Several days away from getting a real clear picture.  My feelings right now is still a last second phaser and it rides right up the se coast or barely off shore. Well see.

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Just now, NCSNOW said:

After looking over 12z , still not settled and all options on the table. Several days away from getting a real clear picture.  My feelings right now is still a last second phaser and it rides right up the se coast or barely off shore. Well see.

My gut agrees with yours.... 

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49 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Wasn't the euro showing something in he 216hr yesterday as well.  Any pics? 

Roundabout, yeah. 

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1 minute ago, Southern Track said:

He really knows his stuff.  The PAC Jet mention going into February doesn’t sound too promising.

I was thinking the same thing. GRROOOAN. I miss the early 2000's. The years between 2000-2004 were epic times. Tracking storms left and right, a couple of sizeable snowstorms between being nickeled and dimed. SIGH...LOL

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From RAH for tonight's event:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 PM Tuesday... Clear skies will give way to developing overcast skies tonight from the S and W, as the cold surface high shifts E off the Mid Atlantic coast. This will induce an increasingly moist low level flow, profound warming at 925-850 mb, and deepening upglide focusing on the southern then western forecast area, as the cold dry surface air gradually moistens with lowering cloud bases overnight. This is a somewhat challenging forecast, as the initial surface wet bulb temps, especially across the Piedmont, will be well below zero. While these readings will be trending upward from SE to NW late, in lockstep with the arrival of spotty precip, these readings are still likely to be near or below freezing over the far NW Piedmont through daybreak. Given the dry air above 700 mb (and above -10C) and subsequent lack of ice in the clouds, precip should be mostly in the form of drizzle or freezing drizzle. As the expectations are for very spotty light precip with the shallow lift, it`s difficult to say with much confidence how much coverage we`ll see. But all it will take is a trace of freezing drizzle to produce enough glazing for travel problems, especially with the recent cold air and observed 4" soil temps already down in the low-mid 30s over the Piedmont. Based on multiple models including convection-allowing models, the far W Triad region will see the greatest chance for an overlap of substantial low level ascent with the still-sub-freezing wet bulbs, so have left the winter weather advisory in place for a chance of light glazing. Models suggest that southern sections will see wet bulbs recovering just above freezing late, reducing the risk of icing there. But I would not be at all surprised to see a light but impactful ice accrual further E and SE outside of the advisory area, even into W portions of the Triangle and down toward Albemarle and Southern Pines, within the battle zone of the encroaching precip and slowly rising temps. Will continue to mention this potential in the hazardous weather outlook, and will monitor the evolution of precip to our S and SE through the evening to determine if an expansion in the advisory will be required. Expect early lows in the mid 20s to around 30, with temps rising overnight. -GIH

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Looking at the individual euro panels from, it seems like you either get cold or you get a winter storm day 8ish. Silly to talk about ptypes but definitely ducks on the pond.

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Alrighty we've reached the daytime max. Sitting here 37/3 at 4;30 pm. Clear skies, so in 90 minutes its full on radiational cooling. We see the biggest/fastest drop the first 2-3 ours post sunset. So if we stay pretty clear to 9pm this evening , gonna be easily sitting in the mid 20's pre -clouds, along with single digit DPs. Then its just a race to get in moisture . Have to say this is a recipe for some super icy road conditions in the morning if the drizzle or moisture make it in here by 6 am. Again Raleigh nws has nada. Must have a lot of faith in models. 

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Just now, NCSNOW said:

Alrighty we've reached the daytime max. Sitting here 37/3 at 4;30 pm. Clear skies, so in 90 minutes its full on radiational cooling. We see the biggest/fastest drop the first 2-3 ours post sunset. So if we stay pretty clear to 9pm this evening , gonna be easily sitting in the mid 20's pre -clouds, along with single digit DPs. Then its just a race to get in moisture . Have to say this is a recipe for some super icy road conditions in the morning if the drizzle or moisture make it in here by 6 am. Again Raleigh nws has nada. Must have a lot of faith in models. 

I bet they extend WWA towards you way before the night is over.

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Just now, CentralNC said:

I bet they extend WWA towards you way before the night is over.

Oh there masters at playing catch-up after it starts unfolding. Moisture is building fast off to our west and return flow will set up shop no doubt. But even way off to my east, its gonna be even colder, clouds delayed. so if moisture is in here early enough its gonna be a big mess in the morning commute down I40 toward triangle.

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8 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

The can attest that the models are having trouble. Forecast high of 39° today. Only reached 34°.

Swing and miss down my way too good buddy... High was 55°, only got up to 47°

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16 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

From RAH for tonight's event:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 PM Tuesday... Clear skies will give way to developing overcast skies tonight from the S and W, as the cold surface high shifts E off the Mid Atlantic coast. This will induce an increasingly moist low level flow, profound warming at 925-850 mb, and deepening upglide focusing on the southern then western forecast area, as the cold dry surface air gradually moistens with lowering cloud bases overnight. This is a somewhat challenging forecast, as the initial surface wet bulb temps, especially across the Piedmont, will be well below zero. While these readings will be trending upward from SE to NW late, in lockstep with the arrival of spotty precip, these readings are still likely to be near or below freezing over the far NW Piedmont through daybreak. Given the dry air above 700 mb (and above -10C) and subsequent lack of ice in the clouds, precip should be mostly in the form of drizzle or freezing drizzle. As the expectations are for very spotty light precip with the shallow lift, it`s difficult to say with much confidence how much coverage we`ll see. But all it will take is a trace of freezing drizzle to produce enough glazing for travel problems, especially with the recent cold air and observed 4" soil temps already down in the low-mid 30s over the Piedmont. Based on multiple models including convection-allowing models, the far W Triad region will see the greatest chance for an overlap of substantial low level ascent with the still-sub-freezing wet bulbs, so have left the winter weather advisory in place for a chance of light glazing. Models suggest that southern sections will see wet bulbs recovering just above freezing late, reducing the risk of icing there. But I would not be at all surprised to see a light but impactful ice accrual further E and SE outside of the advisory area, even into W portions of the Triangle and down toward Albemarle and Southern Pines, within the battle zone of the encroaching precip and slowly rising temps. Will continue to mention this potential in the hazardous weather outlook, and will monitor the evolution of precip to our S and SE through the evening to determine if an expansion in the advisory will be required. Expect early lows in the mid 20s to around 30, with temps rising overnight. -GIH

Guarantee your house if its out in the country especially toward Rocky Mount Wilson airport will be mid 20's by 9pm. Watch RWI, They are the masters at radiating.

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Same story here in NE GA. Forecast high of 40, only got to 35. Still at 35 with dewpoint just in last 30 minutes going from 0 to 3.

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