Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,393
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NW_of_GYX
    Newest Member
    NW_of_GYX
    Joined
Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Personally I think what screwed us most was the ENSO at the start of winter... went from a forecasted modiki/weak Nino to a weak moderate.  

If you go by the CPC classification we are not in an El Niño at all.  They’ve basically had it as neutral for 6 weeks now 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Each 7-8 day threat is going poof or rain! Then the 8-10 day storm, poofs or rains, there’s a pattern, and it sucks for snowlovers!

This. All. Day. Long.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^^I agree this has sucked. We just need to get one of these storms to stayed modeled within 5 days. In the past it was 7 days; heck we created threads 7/8 days out. But with how the models have been performing lately, it's 5 days max. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If you go by the CPC classification we are not in an El Niño at all.  They’ve basically had it as neutral for 6 weeks now 

Just wait til the El Niño kicks in and our storms really get juiced/wet.  

TW

  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

Yep same old same old it's 7 or 8 days for snow then it's another 7or 8 days for snow then another, we're going to run out of winter if something doesn't pop soon.  I can't believe we've gone the whole month of January and not had a decent storm to follow, or I should say we've had a couple to follow but they go poof.  I would have bet money we would have a good snow storm at least one in January and now it's looking like thru February 8 is not looking good.

Don't worry, the mountain folks will get their snow in April :ee:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The NAM continues to show an ice potential for areas in NE Ga, up state,  and western NC. Even has some light ice at RDU.   

Most likely there will only be Advisors, but this could become very significant because of the cold road surfaces. .15" of freezing rain with the current cold temps would be much worse the .25 (or even higher) with warmer ground temps (like our last event).  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, calculus1 said:

Both, 12Z RGEM and 3KNAM both show freezing rain breaking out around midnight and lasting through 16Z in the immediate lee of the Apps.

Has higher totals there as well. Honestly if I was the NWS I would consider Winter Storm Watches. Cold surfaces with below freezing temps and occurring overnight. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3K NAM high resolution forecast.  Looks like 0.15 at the most.  I'm not sure that qualifies for Winter Storm Watches, but the accretion should happen rather easily tonight due to the conditions you mentioned, Falls.

nQ5m7wM.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, calculus1 said:

3K NAM high resolution forecast.  Looks like 0.15 at the most.  I'm not sure that qualifies for Winter Storm Watches, but the accretion should happen rather easily tonight due to the conditions you mentioned, Falls.

nQ5m7wM.png

Right at the base of the mountains there's > .25". Even down into SC there's spots of .20". The above map would be bad for the morning commute. Again, I think this could be a perfectly timed event that puts out minimal precip but causes maximum affect.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

WWA for here in the morning. Could be our best shot at frozen precip in this awesome pattern....lol

Yep so much for this awesome pattern, all we can get is a little ice, mercy.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Grasping at straws here, but the 12z GFS looked a little better for the 28th...

Thought it did too.  Curious what the FV3 shows.  Evidently it’s irrelevant from what I’ve read until the energy gets through the dumpster fire of the Pacific(Rex Block).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Still  think models are having problems. 

Look at this ice issue for tonight and tomorrow am. Not a word about it until last evening. 

Because it is really hard to trust the NAM...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Southern Track said:

Thought it did too.  Curious what the FV3 shows.  Evidently it’s irrelevant from what I’ve read until the energy gets through the dumpster fire of the Pacific(Rex Block).

Right now it is only out to hr36, but that HP near Montana is a tick south and 1mb stronger compared to 6z

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Still  think models are having problems. 

Look at this ice issue for tonight and tomorrow am. Not a word about it until last evening. 

That's why you wait 2-3 days to get excited about anything now days! Yea, its fun to track 7-10 days in advance...only to be disappointed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’ve only been doing this for 5-6 years but I swear, seeing a low suppressed to Miami while we stay warm is one of the weirdest things I’ve ever seen...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would rather the models be wishy washy with the storms etc, 9/10 times if the models consistently run a storm for MBY for days and days in a row especially in the 5-10 day range once we get inside 2-3 days it goes to hell......but if they don't pick up on it good till inside 5 days they tend to actually pan out much better.....I am pretty confident there will be several legit threats for many places in the SE after mid next week......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, SnowDawg said:

I’ve only been doing this for 5-6 years but I swear, seeing a low suppressed to Miami while we stay warm is one of the weirdest things I’ve ever seen...

Look at the HP placement on the FV3. Savannah is not good for us

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

I would rather the models be wishy washy with the storms etc, 9/10 times if the models consistently run a storm for MBY for days and days in a row especially in the 5-10 day range once we get inside 2-3 days it goes to hell......but if they don't pick up on it good till inside 5 days they tend to actually pan out much better.....I am pretty confident there will be several legit threats for many places in the SE after mid next week......

I agree the models has been doing horrible with this pattern change. The data changes more frequently with abnormal patterns 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×