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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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12 minutes ago, Thor said:

Haha Snow seems to follow you around this year. For us SE of Raleigh and the coastal plains we would love to see the suppression continue for about another 3 days. GEFS seems to be tightening some today

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_fh150_trend.gif

If we actually get the cold the models have been advertising, I think suppression will happen and eastern snow will occur. Again, it's been some time since the Coastal Plain folks (especial south of Rocky Mount) have scored anything.  

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31 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Yeah definitely not the classic case of a late bloomer. Just for all intensive purposes, at the surface it behaved like one.

If the storm forms which is likely but not certain, and it's as strong as some models indicate in the Gulf I'd say the nw trend is inevitable. Maybe not much, but enough to put is in the game.

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5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Btw 18z GEFS was mountains only for this weekend...

It’s favored the mountains from the beginning, although means have been on a steady downward trend for them as well, but that’s what has made the multitude of eastern solutions from the OP’s more puzzling. I’d expect to at least see an eastern bullseye as well, depicting the potential for that solution.

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57 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

If the storm forms which is likely but not certain, and it's as strong as some models indicate in the Gulf I'd say the nw trend is inevitable. Maybe not much, but enough to put is in the game.

As an average, you want to be about 250 miles MW of a "miller A" track. if it hugs the coast and is amped up, there will be a swath of heavy snow around that distance. That's just from all the winter storms I have witnessed in the past. In some of the the colder storms, I have seen the snow line much closer to the LP center. That's just a good rule of thumb.

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No way that temp chart verifies.  22 degree difference between Greensboro and Winston-Salem?  No way

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1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

As an average, you want to be about 250 miles MW of a "miller A" track. if it hugs the coast and is amped up, there will be a swath of heavy snow around that distance. That's just from all the winter storms I have witnessed in the past. In some of the the colder storms, I have seen the snow line much closer to the LP center. That's just a good rule of thumb.

RAH put out a good map that shows what kind of low and track do well for NC.....

qpfconcept.gif.6c640b689f0aea2ca097b3e65638715f.gif

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Regardless of what end result ends up being, GFS continues to trend further west with our piece of energy as it begins to dive into lower 48. 1619254827_gfs_z500_vort_us_fh84_trend(1).thumb.gif.aa975ac6c2950f0e8c8d24fca7354b63.gif

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5 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Regardless of what end result ends up being, GFS continues to trend further west with our piece of energy as it begins to dive into lower 48. 1619254827_gfs_z500_vort_us_fh84_trend(1).thumb.gif.aa975ac6c2950f0e8c8d24fca7354b63.gif

Its flat as hell in the gulf. Won't amount to much this go either.

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1 minute ago, SnowDawg said:

Resulted in too much stream separation. Wave gets strung out and left behind in the SW.

I remember going through this the first half of last January. It's a lot to ask relying on a s/w entering in Canada and wanting it to drop in and produce.

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3 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

I remember going through this the first half of last January. It's a lot to ask relying on a s/w entering in Canada and wanting it to drop in and produce.

Yep. Seems like heights fall in the west at the worst possible time, when we need the ridge to pop.

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1 hour ago, CaryWx said:

No way that temp chart verifies.  22 degree difference between Greensboro and Winston-Salem?  No way

I've seen stranger things in Person County.

If you think it's impossible think again.

Hard fetch. I see two important details.

There is a CAD although warm. And that's the artic front.

 

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Winter Wx Advisory for parts of the area

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
347 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT MAY CAUSE TRAVEL ISSUES FOR SOME
AREAS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 85...

.As a warm front develops tonight above cold air sitting over the
Carolinas and northeast Georgia, precipitation will develop. In
the parts of our area where surface temperatures fall below
freezing tonight, this precipitation will occur as freezing rain.
A light accumulation of ice may cause treacherous road conditions
overnight into Wednesday morning.

NCZ035>037-056-057-063>065-068>070-501>510-SCZ001>003-222100-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0004.190123T0500Z-190123T1700Z/
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville,
Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville,
Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Hickory, Newton,
St. Stephens, Salisbury, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard,
Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana,
East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Shelby, Kings Mountain,
Lincolnton, Crouse, Gastonia, Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir,
Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove,
Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo,
Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Forest City, Rutherfordton,
Spindale, Saluda, Tryon, Columbus, Mill Spring, Mountain Rest,
Walhalla, Pumpkintown, Tigerville, Gowensville, and Cleveland
347 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Though less than a tenth of an
  inch of ice will accumulate, this will be enough to cause some
  roadways and sidewalks to become slick, creating hazardous
  travel conditions.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Upstate South Carolina and the
  foothills and Piedmont of North Carolina, in areas generally
  northwest of I-85.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon EST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The hazardous conditions could impact the
  morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

Please report snow and ice accumulations by calling the National
Weather Service toll free at...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. Leave a
message with your observation and the specific location where it
occurred. You can also post your report to National Weather
Service Greenville Spartanburg Facebook or tweet your report
using hashtag nwsgsp.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$
Wimberley

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GSP is being way too conservative with the freezing rain threat for tonight/wed morning. Not sure what models they are looking at. WWA should be extended down in the upstate. Roads along I85 are going to be a mess and they don't have that included in the advisory.

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Good news!-It looks to dry out some after this weeks deluge! 

Bad news- Snow threat looks minimal through the end of the month. 

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I would still take the 6z FV3 at face value. It has a small event (1-2") at day 7/8 and then a more significant event at the end of the run. 

Point is, these models don't have a clue. We're seeing big swings in the medium and LR, not just in the finer details but the overall pattern depiction.  

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35 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I would still take the 6z FV3 at face value. It has a small event (1-2") at day 7/8 and then a more significant event at the end of the run. 

Point is, these models don't have a clue. We're seeing big swings in the medium and LR, not just in the finer details but the overall pattern depiction.  

Each 7-8 day threat is going poof or rain! Then the 8-10 day storm, poofs or rains, there’s a pattern, and it sucks for snowlovers!

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19, dp 1 @ 930 am. See where we end up at 530 and if its clear enough  to radiate back down before clouds roll in tonight. Raleigh nws has nada for my county. If it stays dry before 9 or 10 am wednesday  good call, if not then watch out. Raleigh has a forecasted high of 52 tommorow at Greensboro. If it stays rainy all day, ill be shocked to see greensboro crack 40 mark,let alone 52 with insitu wedge. Taking the under on tommorows 52. 

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

I'm struck by how the 500mb pattern manages to be super suppressive with the backside waves diving into the trough, yet not overly cold at the same time

Just proves we really can always find new and improved ways to fail.

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41 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I would still take the 6z FV3 at face value. It has a small event (1-2") at day 7/8 and then a more significant event at the end of the run. 

Point is, these models don't have a clue. We're seeing big swings in the medium and LR, not just in the finer details but the overall pattern depiction.  

Yep same old same old it's 7 or 8 days for snow then it's another 7or 8 days for snow then another, we're going to run out of winter if something doesn't pop soon.  I can't believe we've gone the whole month of January and not had a decent storm to follow, or I should say we've had a couple to follow but they go poof.  I would have bet money we would have a good snow storm at least one in January and now it's looking like thru February 8 is not looking good.

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Today will mark the 10th day out of the last 13 Greensboro has been at or below normal. Big shift since January 9th. With the massive torch first 9 days of Jan, weve cut it down to +3 for january so far. Be pretty impresive if it ends up average or only +1 for month. 

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2 hours ago, burrel2 said:

GSP is being way too conservative with the freezing rain threat for tonight/wed morning. Not sure what models they are looking at. WWA should be extended down in the upstate. Roads along I85 are going to be a mess and they don't have that included in the advisory.

I don’t know about your backyard, but down here, we are forecast to hit 43 or so today, and GSP says clouds roll in before dark, so almost no radiational cooling will be nil! With light rates, temp won’t wetbulb much, even with DPs in the teens

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