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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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I’m perfectly fine with the amount of cold we’re getting. Extreme cold would only lead to extreme suppression.

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LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A slow moving frontal boundary will push through region Wednesday
into Thursday with periods of rain. Another Arctic high pressure
system dives into the Central U.S. Friday into next weekend with an
associated deep upper trough over the Eastern U.S. Much below
normal temperatures are forecast and will need to watch for
disturbances rotating around the base of the trough which could
bring light wintry precipitation to central South Carolina and
east central Georgia.

&&

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UKMet on left / Euro on right at hr144 (at end of UKMet run).  Largely similar for a day 6 map.  Euro is a little more relaxed with the height field along the east coast, allowing the wave to get to neutral and spin up a good storm after this point.

0nAICHf.gif

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Since the Midlands discussion was posted, I thought I’d share GSP.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 227 PM EST Sunday: The rest of the fcst just looks like good
old-fashioned winter across the western Carolinas...as a broad
long-wave upper trof grips the eastern half of North America. It
seems likely that we will have to deal with at least some wintry
precip next weekend, given the fairly good confidence that temps
will remain below normal for the period. The main question will
be...one system or two? Or, perhaps, more succinctly, will we
see any effect from a clipper-type low passing by to the north
Thursday night and Friday morning? The GFS says yes...there will
be enough low level moisture far enough south to wring out snow
showers near the TN border thru most of Friday...but the new
ECMWF says no...the moisture will stay well to the north. Have
split the difference, which keeps the precip chances down in the
slight chance range for the time being. The bigger issue will be
the second system diving down into the upper trof Saturday and
lingering into Sunday. Model guidance has been all over the place
with little run-to-run consistency. Will it be another fast-moving
clipper like the GFS indicates, or will the short wave dive farther
south, close off a small upper low, induce cyclogenesis along the
southeast coast, and precipitate a potential winter storm for parts
of the Carolinas next Sunday? The forecast remains conservative
at this time, with nearly climo 30/20 precip prob and a mountain
snow/Piedmont rain arrangement. Perhaps this is something of a
cop-out, but we need better run-to-run consistency before we get
carried away. Stay tuned.


.

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Just now, UpstateSCGamecock said:

Since the Midlands discussion was posted, I thought I’d share GSP.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 227 PM EST Sunday: The rest of the fcst just looks like good
old-fashioned winter across the western Carolinas...as a broad
long-wave upper trof grips the eastern half of North America. It
seems likely that we will have to deal with at least some wintry
precip next weekend, given the fairly good confidence that temps
will remain below normal for the period. The main question will
be...one system or two? Or, perhaps, more succinctly, will we
see any effect from a clipper-type low passing by to the north
Thursday night and Friday morning? The GFS says yes...there will
be enough low level moisture far enough south to wring out snow
showers near the TN border thru most of Friday...but the new
ECMWF says no...the moisture will stay well to the north. Have
split the difference, which keeps the precip chances down in the
slight chance range for the time being. The bigger issue will be
the second system diving down into the upper trof Saturday and
lingering into Sunday. Model guidance has been all over the place
with little run-to-run consistency. Will it be another fast-moving
clipper like the GFS indicates, or will the short wave dive farther
south, close off a small upper low, induce cyclogenesis along the
southeast coast, and precipitate a potential winter storm for parts
of the Carolinas next Sunday? The forecast remains conservative
at this time, with nearly climo 30/20 precip prob and a mountain
snow/Piedmont rain arrangement. Perhaps this is something of a
cop-out, but we need better run-to-run consistency before we get
carried away. Stay tuned.


.

That is extremely bullish...

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Just now, UpstateSCGamecock said:


I actually felt your areas discussion sounded more bullish than Upstate’s discussion.


.

Because of the track of the low?

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Because of the track of the low?


“Light wintry precipitation across the midlands” vs “rain in the piedmont”.

Lots of time for GSP to watch models. Just feels good having a potential board wide storm to track. Upstate counties south of 85 have basically faired the same way of Columbia, lately.


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51 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

This would infer to me that there is little to no ensemble support.

8A595105-7B9E-47D1-97E4-D3A797882604.png

Still a clear signal for coastal transfer but wouldn’t look like what the operational was showing. It’s pretty clear where this thing wants to deepen right now? 

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Lots of big time totals starting to show up on GEFS members in N GA, others are generally light with no in between. For now at least, looks like the timing of getting neutral/negative is driving the forecast. 

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All good things...the chances of a wintery wonderland are increasing for a lot of us.  Another board member around me was mentioning next weekend looks like a promising deal for north GA.  Could be the same for NC.  Guess we will see! 

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4 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

All good things...the chances of a wintery wonderland are increasing for a lot of us.  Another board member around me was mentioning next weekend looks like a promising deal for north GA.  Could be the same for NC.  Guess we will see! 

Remember what I said this morning... I'm waiting on all the 18z models 

 

 

However, the clear skies tonight are perfect to view the eclipse!

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35 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Remember what I said this morning... I'm waiting on all the 18z models 

 

 

However, the clear skies tonight are perfect to view the eclipse!

You don't have to worry about starting a thread based on the 18z GFS.

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1 minute ago, Waiting on snow said:

You don't have to worry about starting a thread based on the 18z GFS.

Congrats, Bermuda? 

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18z much closer than 6z or 12z. Height of the western ridge will be key on getting the wave to dive quickly and be able to get neutral in time.

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1 minute ago, SnowDawg said:

18z much closer than 6z or 12z. Height of the western ridge will be key on getting the wave to dive quickly and be able to get neutral in time.

Yeah but we still missed

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Just now, SnowDawg said:

So? Its one run of an OP 7 days out. 

More the lack of run to run continuity with the ops and ensemble support 7 days out, while in no way unusual lets still be real, it's a unicorn at this very early stage. 

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12 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

18z much closer than 6z or 12z. Height of the western ridge will be key on getting the wave to dive quickly and be able to get neutral in time.

Agree it was a better run on the GFS.  18z FV3 looks pretty good at h5 with the wave, but it struggles to throw precip inland.  It was a good run for RDU area, though sfc temps may be sketchy.

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8 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

More the lack of run to run continuity with the ops and ensemble support 7 days out, while in no way unusual lets still be real, it's a unicorn at this very early stage. 

No one should expect run to run continuity 7 days out on a storm that is going to be this close. Very small differences in the ridge/trough are resulting in the big differences seen at the surface, from run to run at this range that will change wildly. I have 11 out of 20 GEFS members over 4 inches and all showing 1 inch or more for my area. I couldn't ask for more support at a 7 day lead time. 

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14 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

No one should expect run to run continuity 7 days out on a storm that is going to be this close. Very small differences in the ridge/trough are resulting in the big differences seen at the surface, from run to run at this range that will change wildly. I have 11 out of 20 GEFS members over 4 inches and all showing 1 inch or more for my area. I couldn't ask for more support at a 7 day lead time. 

where do you see the GEFS ensembles ? is it behind a paywall ?

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Just now, shahroz98 said:

where do you see the GEFS ensembles ? is it behind a paywall ?

Yeah. I use weathermodels.com

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