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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

Check out MA forum--PAC jet issues

I don't see a Pac Jet on the GFS.

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3 minutes ago, Wow said:

Yes, for our parts,  this is one where we will need some good phasing to pull it negative.  This is Jan '96 style with a wave diving south from MT all the way to the GOM.

This is gonna be a push all your chips in for us. Go big or go home. Mtns will win off ns by itself and coastal sections can salvage a late phase. In the middle its gotta bomb in the sweet spot or we want have a seat at the table. Im fine and ok with taking our chance like this. Nice when your playing with house money.

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2 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Ukie has a 1011 low in far south Texas at day 6,pretty low heights across the southeast.

Wave is digging nicely into Texas.  It would struggle to round the bend with that look, but I prefer the south/suppressed look at this juncture

YxFXM1s.gif

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9 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

I don't see a Pac Jet on the GFS.

Not a PAC jet per se but issues in the pacific not cooperating to provide best set up scenario for eastern conus

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Usually when the MA is concerned, it’s good for us!? :)

What I was thinking---when they 'dry out' cold we have increased chances usually

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11 minutes ago, griteater said:

Wave is digging nicely into Texas.  It would struggle to round the bend with that look, but I prefer the south/suppressed look at this juncture

YxFXM1s.gif

Agree I'll take that look at day 6 on the Ukie.These heights usually bump north with time and the trajectory of them are more southwest-northeast at day 6 then day 5.

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48 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Also looks like Lookout eye for wed morning mischief, freezing drizzle, light zr has some legs on the models now. Good catch yesterday.

I'm watching close..has had it since yesterday and hasnt backed down for ne ga and nw sc

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37 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Not a PAC jet per se but issues in the pacific not cooperating to provide best set up scenario for eastern conus

The concern is coming from the ensembles breaking the pattern down starting Feb. A trend that started yesterday on the ensembles and the night before on the ops. The MJO is now forecasted stronger in warm phases and loop around in phase 5 just like before and the Pac goes to s**t again. Most probably won't care if we can reel in next weekend or the possible 30-31st threat. But if we screw those up the other thread may get real busy quickly as the epic pattern doesn't look so epic anymore long range.

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2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

CMC is onboard! Game on

I don't ever remember seeing Mack positively excited. Although I'll admit to being around only about 2 yrs. 

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4 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

The concern is coming from the ensembles breaking the pattern down starting Feb. A trend that started yesterday on the ensembles and the night before on the ops. The MJO is now forecasted stronger in warm phases and loop around in phase 5 just like before and the Pac goes to s**t again. Most probably won't care if we can reel in next weekend or the possible 30-31st threat. But if we screw those up the other thread may get real busy quickly as the epic pattern doesn't look so epic anymore long range.

The 12z continues the trend at hr 282 and downhill from there. Ridge over the Aleutians and low north of Hawaii.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_48.png

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5 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

The concern is coming from the ensembles breaking the pattern down starting Feb. A trend that started yesterday on the ensembles and the night before on the ops. The MJO is now forecasted stronger in warm phases and loop around in phase 5 just like before and the Pac goes to s**t again. Most probably won't care if we can reel in next weekend or the possible 30-31st threat. But if we screw those up the other thread may get real busy quickly as the epic pattern doesn't look so epic anymore long range. 

The models have vaccilated over that recently. They actually seem to have moved back to keeping the pattern in place. As for the MJO, it's pretty disappointing. The Euro is more aggressive in moving it eastward, so maybe it'll hit 7/8 by February and then we will have a favorable pattern for the month. GFS always sends it into the COD too early.

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12z Fv3 continues good look.A little later phase than 0z. Snows light ENC,then scrapes NE coast and does big cities right. Actually looks identical h5 from 12z epic run, just a hair and i mean a hair latter with phase. Shows the tight rope. But also fits alot of traditional tracks from years past that had good size NC snow storms.

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Just now, WidreMann said:

The models have vaccilated over that recently. They actually seem to have moved back to keeping the pattern in place. As for the MJO, it's pretty disappointing. The Euro is more aggressive in moving it eastward, so maybe it'll hit 7/8 by February and then we will have a favorable pattern for the month. GFS always sends it into the COD too early.

We'll see how it all pans out I guess. For now I'll just focus on the potential of next weekend and hope for the best afterwards.

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Just now, WidreMann said:

The models have vaccilated over that recently. They actually seem to have moved back to keeping the pattern in place. As for the MJO, it's pretty disappointing. The Euro is more aggressive in moving it eastward, so maybe it'll hit 7/8 by February and then we will have a favorable pattern for the month. GFS always sends it into the COD too early.

I read webber say where this mjo through warm phase want have really any effect on our pattern, unlike the last fiasco we just went through and it camped out for 2 weeks. Says they all are different in their effect. Somtimes mjo drives pattern and sometimes its just one of multiple factors that gets skewed, weighted out when amongst all the other teleconnections. 

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1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

I read webber say where this mjo through warm phase want have really any effect on our pattern, unlike the last fiasco we just went through and it camped out for 2 weeks. Says they all are different in their effect. Somtimes mjo drives pattern and sometimes its just one of multiple factors that gets skewed, weighted out when amongst all the other teleconnections. 

He very well may be right. I'm wondering if the MJO is the reason the modeling is wanting to breakdown the Pac though?

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12z Euro Op: hr 96 Ridge is building nice on west coast. See if it can send our energy diving.

Also Gefs looks awesome with lp signal clustering se coast next monday. Lets hope eps does same this afternoon.

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19 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

The models have vaccilated over that recently. They actually seem to have moved back to keeping the pattern in place. As for the MJO, it's pretty disappointing. The Euro is more aggressive in moving it eastward, so maybe it'll hit 7/8 by February and then we will have a favorable pattern for the month. GFS always sends it into the COD too early.

Yeah pretty much.  There’s been quite a bit of run to run flipping.  The earlier GFS, for instance had a big time -NAO.  This one, not so much.  I’m not sure the pattern is going to turn favorable and then break down immediately, especially if we can get the mjo into the better phases.

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Hr 120 pac ridge is a little closer to west coast and ns energy coming into Dakotas as oppossed to Montana state line. See where she goes.gut says if we get it to dig n phase it will miss se coast by a hair like fv3 just did.

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Gonna need a strong PNA ridge to build to force that wave to dig that far south.  This isn't like a weak STJ wave rolling through.

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Just now, griteater said:

Yeah Euro is in the ICON/FV3/UKMet camp digging the wave nicely.  Closes off the wave in the gulf south of Pensacola at 174.  Warm in E NC though

Yeah, just looking at the 168 frame, it would send it over the coastal plain and only the mountains would likely see any wintry precip.

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