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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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The GFS is moving towards showing a split PV, with the weaker lobe in SE Canada (approximately). GEFS ensemble mean has dropped 10mb zonal mean wind at 60 N for the past few runs. Euro has wavered the last 4 days, but still shows a minimal split of some sort. We are having an SSW of some sort, but whether it will be big enough and propagate downward enough to give us a cold January and February remains to be seen.

Euro and GFS LR are seasonable, which in these very warm years, is probably pretty good.

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1 minute ago, NC_hailstorm said:

All the models are scoring very poorly the last 5 days,anything 5 days and beyond should not be trusted at all until things shake out.

We're pretty much on point here for the 26th based on what was modeled back on the 19th I believe.

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15 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

All the models are scoring very poorly the last 5 days,anything 5 days and beyond should not be trusted at all until things shake out.

I was under the impression that you shouldn't really trust the operational models past 5 days in general. 

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2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I was under the impression that you shouldn't really trust the operational models past 5 days in general. 

Depends on what parameter. I wouldn't trust them on exactly how much rain/snow will fall or the exact temperature, but they've actually improved enough over the past decades that they're not usually too far off even in the 6-10 day range. Remember how the models had the December 9th storm more than a week out?

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1 hour ago, WidreMann said:

Depends on what parameter. I wouldn't trust them on exactly how much rain/snow will fall or the exact temperature, but they've actually improved enough over the past decades that they're not usually too far off even in the 6-10 day range. Remember how the models had the December 9th storm more than a week out?

Yes they did have that storm pegged early, but from reading others post it seemed like that was unexpectedly good performance.

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Model performance on the Dec 9th event was an anomaly.  Having said that, I think there are some patterns where the models can be fairly accurate fairly far out, and other patterns they are not.  Due to the consensus across most all of the models from a week out, we were in one of those patterns where most of the models could get it right. 

It concerns me just a bit that the cold and pattern flip to glory still appear to be nowhere in site.  Having said that, if the flip took place around 1/15 and lasted about 4 weeks, I'd be good with that.

TW

 

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For GSP going back to 1960 looking at Decembers that received 1 inch or more of snow, only twice did January follow with an inch or more. 10-11 and 17-18. If any month produced after a December snow it was usually Feb. Just food for thought. I have no idea how the pattern shapes up but if history is a predictor of the future snow will be hard to come by in January. At least at GSP.

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Give the models a few days and Im willing to bet by Jan 1st the LR picture want be as foggy and well be able to nail down the next window of opportunity. The firehose of moisture isnt going to shut off and its just a matter of getting a trough on the east coast to hang out 3 to 5 days and well time out another amped up synoptic event. Once the models see the ssw propogate down and the MJO finally decides to get into phase 7 it should be game on.  In laymens terms we just need the pac ridge to blow up and drive canadian air down into a east coast trough. These big wets come along every 5 days, thats how theyve been spacing out. Whats impressive is their duration. Just like the early December big dog, this next flood event is gonna get going this afternoon, hit us hard Friday and leave hangover moisture for several day afterwards.

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20 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Give the models a few days and Im willing to bet by Jan 1st the LR picture want be as foggy and well be able to nail down the next window of opportunity. The firehose of moisture isnt going to shut off and its just a matter of getting a trough on the east coast to hang out 3 to 5 days and well time out another amped up synoptic event. Once the models see the ssw propogate down and the MJO finally decides to get into phase 7 it should be game on.  In laymens terms we just need the pac ridge to blow up and drive canadian air down into a east coast trough. These big wets come along every 5 days, thats how theyve been spacing out. Whats impressive is their duration. Just like the early December big dog, this next flood event is gonna get going this afternoon, hit us hard Friday and leave hangover moisture for several day afterwards.

Yeah, it’ll be clear by January 1st, this winter will suck like the last 5 or so. Unicorn SSW and perfect looking long range patterns, are going by the wayside. Somebody start the 2019 hurricane thread! Put this craptastic to bed

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25 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah, it’ll be clear by January 1st, this winter will suck like the last 5 or so. Unicorn SSW and perfect looking long range patterns, are going by the wayside. Somebody start the 2019 hurricane thread! Put this craptastic to bed

Lol. You, we got a shot late next week to score some novelty event stuff. Not a long shot and not a slamdunk eitheir. Hope is fv3  is 1 for 1 on sniffing out an event from 7 days out this winter. Maybe 12z it goes 2 for 2. Red flag is  confluence over NE isnt what we normally like to see. But its all we got to look at right now till the mjo gets out of 6.

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50 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Lol. You, we got a shot late next week to score some novelty event stuff. Not a long shot and not a slamdunk eitheir. Hope is fv3  is 1 for 1 on sniffing out an event from 7 days out this winter. Maybe 12z it goes 2 for 2. Red flag is  confluence over NE isnt what we normally like to see. But its all we got to look at right now till the mjo gets out of 6.

Just a thought but since the polar vortex spilt do you think the models are having a hard time trying to figure out what’s going to happen?

I know the NAO ,AO andthe PNA are going  favorable for the SE. 

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1 hour ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Just a thought but since the polar vortex spilt do you think the models are having a hard time trying to figure out what’s going to happen?

I know the NAO ,AO andthe PNA are going  favorable for the SE. 

Yes, ssw in early stages, plus just because youget a pv split doesnt gurantee anything, its where those lobes set up shop after the split. Does the ssw effect the mjo and drive it into phase 7 and espeacilly 8 or is whats happening up top of the globe an effect of the mjo? Lot to learn about what triggers the causes and effects of the pattern drivers.

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Anyways at first glance on the Euro it looks like the strongest/coldest piece of the PV goes into Scandinavia at day 6.North America gets a smaller piece in Eastern Canada somewhere with decent blocking up over the top.

First guess and subject to change on the SSW talk.

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6 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yeah, it’ll be clear by January 1st, this winter will suck like the last 5 or so. Unicorn SSW and perfect looking long range patterns, are going by the wayside. Somebody start the 2019 hurricane thread! Put this craptastic to bed

I think that's at least at least the third time you've used the phrase "unicorn SSW".  This puzzles me because we had a SSW which impacted the sensible weather earlier this year, in March 2018.  Unfortunately, it was too late to help us in February when it really could have made some difference, but March featured notable NAO blocking which lead to a cool stormy month.

It looks like the fact of the SSW is high probability.  The real question is whether or not it will be "downward propagating".  There is significant discussion about that point in the MA forum.  There is a poster named Isotherm, whom other appear to respect, who believes that it will.  Others are less confident.        

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8 hours ago, griteater said:

Well the ensembles look kind of 'meh' right now.  Nothing terrible, but nothing spectacular either

Yea the ensembles look very blah and seasonal at best. I'm waiting for all these great things to happen and hoping it doesnt push all the way to February before it flips.

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29 minutes ago, The Alchemist said:


I don’t know man, a 46 day euro clown map... just seems to be clutching at straws to me...


.

You could try the 0z fv3 or new GFS I should say for next week. 

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Next week doesn't interest me all that much. I'd say at best some of us might be able to see a brief period of wet snow--token flakes probably. But what lies beyond into the LR is intriguing, and perhaps we are just now beginning to see the effects of the SSW in that period. Day 10 EC puts part of the PV near Hudson Bay with higher pressure in the NW Territories. The 6Z GFS follows with this look at day 16. All of this to simply say that at the very least, the modeling is tracking in the overall direction of many of the winter outlooks that called for a back-loaded winter. Time will tell of course, but for now there is still plenty of reason to be optimistic. 

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_53.png

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42 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Next week doesn't interest me all that much. I'd say at best some of us might be able to see a brief period of wet snow--token flakes probably. But what lies beyond into the LR is intriguing, and perhaps we are just now beginning to see the effects of the SSW in that period. Day 10 EC puts part of the PV near Hudson Bay with higher pressure in the NW Territories. The 6Z GFS follows with this look at day 16. All of this to simply say that at the very least, the modeling is tracking in the overall direction of many of the winter outlooks that called for a back-loaded winter. Time will tell of course, but for now there is still plenty of reason to be optimistic. 

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_53.png

Back loaded winters are more fun for me because you get so many kows on the heels for each other. Sure, the temp profiles aren't as good, but that is just part if the fun "am I good or am I torched"

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1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Back loaded winters are more fun for me because you get so many kows on the heels for each other. Sure, the temp profiles aren't as good, but that is just part if the fun "am I good or am I torched"

Maybe, but waiting for winter to start is hard.  It sucks wasting half of the winter.  At least we’re not torching.  It’s just unfortunate that there is no cold air anywhere nearby.

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7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Maybe, but waiting for winter to start is hard.  It sucks wasting half of the winter.  At least we’re not torching.  It’s just unfortunate that there is no cold air anywhere nearby.

MJO says "I am the ruler right now" "Winter starts when I say so."

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27 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Maybe, but waiting for winter to start is hard.  It sucks wasting half of the winter.  At least we’re not torching.  It’s just unfortunate that there is no cold air anywhere nearby.

Don't forget, today is only the 7th day of winter. Lots of opportunities still to come.

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36 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Maybe, but waiting for winter to start is hard.  It sucks wasting half of the winter.  At least we’re not torching.  It’s just unfortunate that there is no cold air anywhere nearby.

I have already had a foot of snow.  If we get 70's from here on out this was a great year! 

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