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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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1 hour ago, Billypg70 said:

Mack you obviously didn't see John Cesarich's forecast tonight between 4-6:30

He mentions the pattern change starting Sunday.

With arctic air over the entire SE next week.

With a BAJA low entering SOCAL early next week & rolling along the Gulf Coast.

Setting the stage for a MAJOR WINTER STORM next Thursday into the weekend.

Reminds me of how Charlie Gertz called that 88 storm 2 weeks out......

Something big is on the way...

The signals are all there !

Ol’ Charlie Gertz! Drink a 5th of Vodka and nail a long range forecast live on the air

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1 hour ago, Billypg70 said:

Mack you obviously didn't see John Cesarich's forecast tonight between 4-6:30

He mentions the pattern change starting Sunday.

With arctic air over the entire SE next week.

With a BAJA low entering SOCAL early next week & rolling along the Gulf Coast.

Setting the stage for a MAJOR WINTER STORM next Thursday into the weekend.

Reminds me of how Charlie Gertz called that 88 storm 2 weeks out......

Something big is on the way...

The signals are all there !

That setup above reminds me of some of the great snowstorms/Nor'Easters we used to get on the Outer Banks in the 70's and 80's.

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17 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Ol’ Charlie Gertz! Drink a 5th of Vodka and nail a long range forecast live on the air

"Charlie Said it Would!" 

https://www.legacy.com/obituaries/greenvilleonline/obituary.aspx?pid=140778527

https://serhasacomplaint.com/2011/12/12/charlie-said-it-would/

 

Well too bad the 18z GFS is just fantasy, or it might be worthy of one of his forecasts! Loving the trends though. My biggest concern all along (other than the pattern change not happening at all :lol:) is that the cold and snow may stay west of the Apps, and I still think that is a distinct possibility. If so, it could be an incredible pattern for I-75 West, and I-40 North, but leave the rest of us out in the rain. That would stink out loud, so hope it doesn't happen. Hard to ask for more than a cold outlook with multiple disturbances for the 7-28 day outlook though. 

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That setup above reminds me of some of the great snowstorms/Nor'Easters we used to get on the Outer Banks in the 70's and 80's.

I will see your 1970’s and 1980’s on the OBX and raise you March 2 & 3, 1980. We had 28” in southern Camden County, NC. I had just turned 10 and that was the most epic winter I remember. The whole of February was endless snow it seemed.


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30 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Grit you should be making pixr movies. Nice job and wow. If weeklies where barking last week. Thats howl at the moon stuff tonight. Hopefully we dont find a way to train wreck it over the next few weeks.

I asked Anthony (HM) about him seemingly predicting the upcoming polar blocking.  Obviously, the Euro Weeklies and other weeklies are showing it, but it's nice to see that he feels there are legit physical mechanisms for the blocking.  So when he says momentum loss, my interpretation is that he is referring to typical strong westerly flow in the upper atmosphere and stratosphere slowing down (post-SSW effect and other processes I'm sure), which opens the door for waviness in the flow and blocking.  Also, he mentions typical Nino trough/ridge positioning to go along with the blocked flow (western ridge / eastern trough).

m3lp30w.png

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22 minutes ago, tramadoc said:


I will see your 1970’s and 1980’s on the OBX and raise you March 2 & 3, 1980. We had 28” in southern Camden County, NC. I had just turned 10 and that was the most epic winter I remember. The whole of February was endless snow it seemed.

 

I remember that year like it was yesterday. I lived in Virginia beach and we ended up with 18" with 6 foot drifts. I also remember getting over 40" that season. Most epic snow year ever. broke all kinds of records.

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27 minutes ago, yotaman said:

I remember that year like it was yesterday. I lived in Virginia beach and we ended up with 18" with 6 foot drifts. I also remember getting over 40" that season. Most epic snow year ever. broke all kinds of records.

70’s were pretty cold and snowy. 

Of course we only had 3channels,12 2 and 8, to watch to see if and when winter weather was coming. 12 and 2 always went on the low side  so I would go with channel 8 and hope for he was right.  12 and 2 would say 1-3. And channel 8 would say 2-4. 

Loved it when they came out and bumped the totals up.

Frank Deal was on channel 8 and he was great at forecasting winter storm.

 

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30 minutes ago, tramadoc said:


I will see your 1970’s and 1980’s on the OBX and raise you March 2 & 3, 1980. We had 28” in southern Camden County, NC. I had just turned 10 and that was the most epic winter I remember. The whole of February was endless snow it seemed.


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Yeah, I was 15 years old at the time. Didn't know that I would never see a snowy winter like that again. Same applies to 1977 for the cold. This up coming pattern may just have another piece of history with it.

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1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Yeah, I was 15 years old at the time. Didn't know that I would never see a snowy winter like that again. Same applies to 1977 for the cold. This up coming pattern may just have another piece of history with it.

Speaking of cold, what would be the chances of ever seeing a cold outbreak like the one almost 34 years ago this coming weekend. http://www.markvoganweather.com/2015/12/06/a-look-back-super-arctic-outbreak-january-1985/

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9 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Speaking of cold, what would be the chances of ever seeing a cold outbreak like the one almost 34 years ago this coming weekend. http://www.markvoganweather.com/2015/12/06/a-look-back-super-arctic-outbreak-january-1985/

Florida’s citrus industry suffered $1.2 billion in losses ($2.3 billion in 2009 dollars) as a result of the inclement weather, which killed nearly every citrus tree in central Florida, and forced the industry permanently into southern Florida

 

That’s a fun little factoid 

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1 hour ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

70’s were pretty cold and snowy. 

Of course we only had 3channels,12 2 and 8, to watch to see if and when winter weather was coming. 12 and 2 always went on the low side  so I would go with channel 8 and hope for he was right.  12 and 2 would say 1-3. And channel 8 would say 2-4. 

Loved it when they came out and bumped the totals up.

Frank Deal was on channel 8 and he was great at forecasting winter storm.

 

Frank Deal was one of the greats. I loved his enthusiasm for weather, and I felt like he really influenced the other young mets that worked for him in the late 80's/early 90's. One of those was Van Denton, who obviously took over after he retired. The other was a young Eric Chilton, who went on to become the head met at WFMY.

I'm not sure if WGHP was just as good as WFMY was back in those days--despite what the ratings might have been.

Also, RIP Frank Deal.

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6 hours ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

Frank Deal was one of the greats. I loved his enthusiasm for weather, and I felt like he really influenced the other young mets that worked for him in the late 80's/early 90's. One of those was Van Denton, who obviously took over after he retired. The other was a young Eric Chilton, who went on to become the head met at WFMY.

I'm not sure if WGHP was just as good as WFMY was back in those days--despite what the ratings might have been.

Also, RIP Frank Deal.

Frank Deal was the best.  His jokes were so corny, but he was such a likable guy and loved winter weather.  Couldn’t wait till the weather came on.  Randy Jackson wasn’t nearly as enjoyable to watch, IMO, but I’m sure he was pretty good.

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Looking at the last two days of model runs. I am struck by the way we have a steady diet of very close near misses in the long range. No way that timing works out as modeled. If the runs were modeling major fantasy snow we would all be sure it would change as it gets closer and it would. We are going to get snowed on folks. 

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2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

0z GFS might have had the coldest arctic blast I've ever seen modeled here. 

Vodka served on dry ice!  Surely anything making it down to the gulf would stay surpressed in this scenario.  But with the right timing we can catch LPs riding underneath the retreating PV.  We just dont get snow here when it is that cold.

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9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The biggest threat in the next 10 days is flooding. GFS and Euro show over 4 inches for escarpment areas. Lots of SE flow ahead of the low pressures pumping in the moisture to an already saturated area. 

where is the cold air when we need it, warm and rain or cold and sunny.  

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