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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

I'm currently arguing with a weanie in NY on a Discord server about the track of that low... He thinks it will plow into those 1045s to give him that fantasy 15"

Good luck with that... lol

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Next weekend has my interest for the MA, to a point where tentative PTO for 1/21 was submitted yesterday and the current chase envelope includes PA.  I am not driving that far for 16-20" though, need a solid 2' hatch with guidance painting 30"+ lollipops.  At H5 its not far off, just need that PV lobe in Quebec to keep distance.  Big dogs often come at the bookends of a pattern change.

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12 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Anyone been paying attention to the radar for Washington DC?

it started snowing yesterday and it’s still snowing. I’m happy for them but a I’m ready to see that for us in the SE too. 

They really needed it.  I have been hanging around in their forum a lot lately since ours kind of fell asleep in the afterglow of the early December storm and the subsequent boring pattern.  It was getting ugly in there.  Still great analysis, though.

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My Local NWS calling for Snow Showers on the 21st, (Monday next week) this is what the GFSFV3 is showing.. What is to be believed ?? 

 

sameday.JPG

snowshowers.JPG

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14 minutes ago, SENC said:

My Local NWS calling for Snow Showers on the 21st, (Monday next week) this is what the GFSFV3 is showing.. What is to be believed ??

I'm gonna laugh if it snows down here on the coast again...

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Just now, NCSNOW said:

Big uptick 18z gefs for NC 7 days out

Figured that might happen with the op showing some stream separation. 

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One thing is for sure..... we will have plenty of snow cover to the north. So, any cold air that tries to get this far down will be unabated. 

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10 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Two things we know are coming. Plenty of Cold and Plenty of Moisture. What we dont know is how theyll time out.

I think you know how it will work!? Rain, cold front, bitter cold for two days, warm up, rain repeat!

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12 minutes ago, Looking to the skies said:

Maybe it is just because i want it to be so--  But it seems like the GFS is just too warm in the long range outlook.  The temps and the systems don't quite match up, or am i again wish casting?

No, you’re right.  That’s what the GFS shows.

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53 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I think you know how it will work!? Rain, cold front, bitter cold for two days, warm up, rain repeat!

Right now there is no HL blocking so warm/wet and cold/dry is the favored outcome.  It is still possible (in NC at least) to get them to both match up, as we saw in 2013-14 and 2014-15 where we had no Atlantic support but were kept from torching by the EPO, and eventually a lot of us moderately scored.  But that is a low probability occurance.

For sure, if we want serious chances of scoring a significant snowfall, we are going to need the Atlantic to cooperate.  There are encouraging signs that it might start to do just that the last week of January and into February, but we all know how that can go.

I like cold for its own sake so for the present, I am going to sit back, enjoy the cold shots, and hope the long-range guidance comes to fruition.

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1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Right now there is no HL blocking so warm/wet and cold/dry is the favored outcome.  It is still possible (in NC at least) to get them to both match up, as we saw in 2013-14 and 2014-15 where we had no Atlantic support but were kept from torching by the EPO, and eventually a lot of us moderately scored.  But that is a low probability occurance.

For sure, if we want serious chances of scoring a significant snowfall, we are going to need the Atlantic to cooperate.  There are encouraging signs that it might start to do just that the last week of January and into February, but we all know how that can go.

I like cold for its own sake so for the present, I am going to sit back, enjoy the cold shots, and hope the long-range guidance comes to fruition.

In reality there is no perfect pattern for the Carolinas outside the mountains. Sure we had no shot for the last month. But I'd say our chances going forward are equal with a good Pac and no Atlantic help, or with Atlantic help. The NAO can be a double edged sword. It can slow things down just enough for the wave to amplify and go negative sooner which almost always ends bad for us. The exception is very strong blocking to keep an amped wave suppressed. But that is the exception rather than the rule. I understand all models look show the block developing. But strength to be determined. 

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4 hours ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Anyone been paying attention to the radar for Washington DC?

it started snowing yesterday and it’s still snowing. I’m happy for them but a I’m ready to see that for us in the SE too. 

Moved to Winston from NW DC in summer 2017. Been watching LWX feed all day. Beautiful spin with UL swinging through MA. Nice dendrites too. 

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See if the euro or ukmet can throw us a bone for next weekend. Euro is getting close along with the gefs. I havent checked eps from today. Maybe we can pull a rabit out of the hat.

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Just a bit more suppression again with the 20th system. Maybe someway we can keep this trend going for another 350-400 miles lol

1842309338_gfs_z500_mslp_us_fh132_trend(1).thumb.gif.847c65429cc17e3115252ef81b7480a9.gif

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Looks like 3 chances at winter weather just between the 20th and the 28th. Might miss on all 3 but scoring just 1 could make the winter for those that missed the December event. And that's just the first week in the pattern that should last a couple weeks at least, if not more if the Greenland block is actually real this time.

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1 hour ago, NCSNOW said:

12z GEFS improves once again.

Cold AF starting next Mon? :whistle::shiver: Ocean Effect Snow Showers here along the beaches? 

coldAF21.JPG

92521.JPG

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6 hours ago, SnowDawg said:

Just a bit more suppression again with the 20th system. Maybe someway we can keep this trend going for another 350-400 miles lol

1842309338_gfs_z500_mslp_us_fh132_trend(1).thumb.gif.847c65429cc17e3115252ef81b7480a9.gif

6z ticked just a hair north due to the HP being 1mb weaker... But the overall trend I like cause I get a few snow showers imby

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So the next thing for us to look at is late next weekend. The GFS would have a rain changing to snow situation; which we know usually doesn't work out. Looking out in the LR, there's really nothing that pops out except the for availability of cold. But nothing seems to be lined up and we tend to get cold air / warm ups / rain / cold air. The models have been showing this look for the last couple of days, but the way they've shown it has changed with each run. I think we still have a shot of something occurring during the next couple of weeks. As SnowDawg posted above, we could get one of these (modeled) app/lake cutters to get suppressed and we'll be in business.

Here's RAH's write up on this weekend:

There will be a gap in the rain Friday night and through much of Saturday before attention turns to a second low pressure system spurred on by a longwave trough diving down through the central CONUS. Models differ on low track with ECMWF decidedly north of the area and GFS more directly overhead. GFS also remains faster with the onset and exit of the precipitation as well. That being said, rain should begin Saturday night or early Sunday morning and last through Sunday night or early Monday morning. At this time all precipitation is expected to be liquid. Depending on if enough moisture remains after cold air moves in behind the system, there could be a brief period of snow showers or freezing rain but it is much too early to work out those details. Will keep the forecast dry at this time for early Monday morning.

 

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44 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

So the next thing for us to look at is late next weekend. The GFS would have a rain changing to snow situation; which we know usually doesn't work out. Looking out in the LR, there's really nothing that pops out except the for availability of cold. But nothing seems to be lined up and we tend to get cold air / warm ups / rain / cold air. The models have been showing this look for the last couple of days, but the way they've shown it has changed with each run. I think we still have a shot of something occurring during the next couple of weeks. As SnowDawg posted above, we could get one of these (modeled) app/lake cutters to get suppressed and we'll be in business.

Here's RAH's write up on this weekend:

There will be a gap in the rain Friday night and through much of Saturday before attention turns to a second low pressure system spurred on by a longwave trough diving down through the central CONUS. Models differ on low track with ECMWF decidedly north of the area and GFS more directly overhead. GFS also remains faster with the onset and exit of the precipitation as well. That being said, rain should begin Saturday night or early Sunday morning and last through Sunday night or early Monday morning. At this time all precipitation is expected to be liquid. Depending on if enough moisture remains after cold air moves in behind the system, there could be a brief period of snow showers or freezing rain but it is much too early to work out those details. Will keep the forecast dry at this time for early Monday morning.

 

You are correct with rain changing to snow history. But this situation is different and isn't a cold chasing Rain. As QC stated yesterday, you have/hoping a wave develops on an artic front. Hopefully we can get the trough to get neutral and deep enough to allow this to occur for our backyard. So its very rare on this side of apps to see cold catch moisture in time, but this scenerio is a little different, plus this isn't a run of the mill front that's gonna be sweeping through.

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2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

You are correct with rain changing to snow history. But this situation is different and isn't a cold chasing Rain. As QC stated yesterday, you have/hoping a wave develops on an artic front. Hopefully we can get the trough to get neutral and deep enough to allow this to occur for our backyard. So its very rare on this side of apps to see cold catch moisture in time, but this scenerio is a little different, plus this isn't a run of the mill front that's gonna be sweeping through.

That would be nice. The good thing about having all this cold air around, is eventually we'll score something; in the form of a low developing on a front (above) or just by a clipper that's not currently modeled in the LR.  

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