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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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2 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

Basically zero EPS support for that solution or any snowstorm where the OP has it painted.

EPS average has some snow depth, but less than half an inch in Raleigh. I think it's too early for this to happen.

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1 hour ago, WidreMann said:

EPS average has some snow depth, but less than half an inch in Raleigh. I think it's too early for this to happen.

Agreed. I think two weeks too soon. 

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I'll be able chasing snow if I have to sit at my home just 1 MILE NE of Charlotte Motor speedway and be 5miles as the crow flies from all snow.

The constant 85 transition line is just wearing me out! I'm not getting any younger and I love to park at 2500ft and watch the transition as I climb a nice 5000+ hill. 

I got the mountain snow fever living in the shadow of Brasstown Bald Mt in Georgia. It just amazed me that a 3hr hike, and an Elevation change from 2400ft where I parked, to 4800ft at the obs deck at the top was like being in different world's. Nothing like sitting up top in clouds and 40mph winds with snow swirling all around me!

I need that adventure back, but somewhere in NC. 

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Looks like one more chance to add to/break more yearly total amounts late week.

 Still some model divergence in terms of
precipitation arrival and accumulation amounts (which looks to once
again be in the 1 to 3 inch range), with the ECMWF remaining roughly
12 hours slower compared to the GFS/CMC.

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22 hours ago, shaggy said:

Well it snowed the day me and my wife went to the hospital to induce her labor for my son to be born. Both his 1st and 2nd birthday parties were affected by snowstorms and had to be moved up a day early and his 3rd birthday is Jan 5th. If the trend keeps up then we should see some snow that weekend. Totally non-scientific but hey a trend is a trend!

Same boat as me.. my daughter was born the 9th of january in 2016! 

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23 hours ago, shaggy said:

Well it snowed the day me and my wife went to the hospital to induce her labor for my son to be born. Both his 1st and 2nd birthday parties were affected by snowstorms and had to be moved up a day early and his 3rd birthday is Jan 5th. If the trend keeps up then we should see some snow that weekend. Totally non-scientific but hey a trend is a trend!

No way it happens but the gfs is trying to pull through for us 4 yrs in a row.

 

Screenshot_20181223-100507_Samsung Internet.jpg

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6 minutes ago, shaggy said:

No way it happens but the gfs is trying to pull through for us 4 yrs in a row.

 

Screenshot_20181223-100507_Samsung Internet.jpg

The FV3 GFS is showing some potential at and after News Years. The LR models keep flipping around (more than normal) during that period, which could mean they're having issues seeing the (possible) pattern change. 

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Indices look ok to good today:

PNA - Goes strongly positive in the medium range and stays positive in the LR (good/great)

AO - Goes neutral and then averages neutral in the LR (but has some wide spread of positive and negative runs (not sure)

NAO - Stays neutral in the medium range but then averages negative in the LR (maybe good)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

 

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15 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Indices look ok to good today:

PNA - Goes strongly positive in the medium range and stays positive in the LR (good/great)

AO - Goes neutral and then averages neutral in the LR (but has some wide spread of positive and negative runs (not sure)

NAO - Stays neutral in the medium range but then averages negative in the LR (maybe good)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

 

SSW unicorn or not, I still think mid to late January is going to start a really nice several week period where we at least have a +PNA/-EPO with an active southern jet.  Take these next 2 weeks to rest up because I think after the new year the long range is going to look pretty good and we start to get storm potential hits on the models. 

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2 hours ago, SnowNiner said:

SSW unicorn or not, I still think mid to late January is going to start a really nice several week period where we at least have a +PNA/-EPO with an active southern jet.  Take these next 2 weeks to rest up because I think after the new year the long range is going to look pretty good and we start to get storm potential hits on the models. 

I hate its mid to late January, why can't it be early January til March for a change, for once at least.  wish it was as easy to get cold and snow as it is to get cold and warm and rain.  

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3 hours ago, Tacoma said:

I hate its mid to late January, why can't it be early January til March for a change, for once at least.  wish it was as easy to get cold and snow as it is to get cold and warm and rain.  

Patience....so far this winter mother nature is making it look easy.  I just had 14" of snow for Frosty's sake!

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7 hours ago, Tacoma said:

I hate its mid to late January, why can't it be early January til March for a change, for once at least.  wish it was as easy to get cold and snow as it is to get cold and warm and rain.  

We live in the south. Wall-to-wall cold has never been the norm.

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Starting to see some improving looks on the extended range ensembles.  On the VP MJO phase chart, the MJO is currently in phase 5 and will move into phase 7 by early January.  Phases 7-8-1-2 are El Nino-like and favor western ridging (+PNA/-EPO) so the ensemble improvements make sense. 

XzwYW5f.gif

The last 5 12z runs of the Euro have shown an official SSWarming on Dec 30th, albeit the runs have become a little weaker with it, and it may get delayed or possibly even not make the SSW wind reversal.  Regardless, the Strat PV will be severely weakened at a time when it should be at max strength.  What effect this has is highly debatable as it's unclear of the effects the weakened SPV will have on the pattern, but a weakened SPV is certainly more preferred for eastern U.S. cold over a super strong one.

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OH MY, If the GFSFV3 comes to Fruition..that is some pipebusting cold, even down to ILM... after the 3rd..

Plenty of chances at wintery fun down here! 

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Here's the GEFS for days 10-15.  It's out there in range, but it looks really good out west at the end with the strongest anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere contained in the Aleutian Low / W Canada & Alaska ridge couplet.  The Aleutian Low anomaly is displaced to the south and would seed storm waves at a lower latitude (into California/Baja), and the W Canada / AK ridge would deliver January-level cold east of the Rockies.

Y9rOwBC.gif

qMtK6iX.gif

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46 minutes ago, griteater said:

Here's the GEFS for days 10-15.  It's out there in range, but it looks really good out west at the end with the strongest anomalies over the Northern Hemisphere contained in the Aleutian Low / W Canada & Alaska ridge couplet.  The Aleutian Low anomaly is displaced to the south and would seed storm waves at a lower latitude (into California/Baja), and the W Canada / AK ridge would deliver January-level cold east of the Rockies.

Y9rOwBC.gif

qMtK6iX.gif

This is the most optimistic about winter our area has had in a while. 

Enjoy seeing your post. I’m not a meteorologist but I know what we need in this area for snow and cold and this map looks good. Probably will Be colder than what maps are showing. 

Have you seen any snow maps lately?  Most call them clown maps. 

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Found a woolly worm just chillin in my garage.  He was black, brown, black.   Tried to post a photo but it was too big to upload. 

 

Who hop can decipher this folklore?  Cold, warm, cold?

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cold & cool & cold? 

depends on the length of the Bands of color..

Quote

If the rusty band is wide, then it will be a mild winter. The more black there is, the more severe the winter.

from the trusty Farmers Alamac

Full story here..

https://www.almanac.com/content/woolly-bear-caterpillars-and-weather-prediction#

Keep your picture for Posterity, see what happens.. It would really be a cool thing to Discuss! As to upcoming weather!  

@LithiaWx take your pic,,,, open it in paint, go too "resize" use 50 X 50 until it's "fits" into the forum limits..  (I hope I could help).. 

 

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examples.. On the "extremes".. What have you got @LithiaWx??

Cold as a Witches...… T**Ts ,, First picture 

Or.. Secondly..  

second Warm winter.. And Bikinis  ;) 

coldaf.jpg

warmasf.jpg

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1 hour ago, SENC said:

examples.. On the "extremes".. What have you got @LithiaWx??

Cold as a Witches...… T**Ts ,, First picture 

Or.. Secondly..  

second Warm winter.. And Bikinis  ;) 

coldaf.jpg

warmasf.jpg

All I have observed up here have been solid black to little or no brown, like the first photo.

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25 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Some tantalizing possibilities showing up, yet not a creature is stirring here....

Well, we've all just got finished watching "Charlie Brown Christmas", and are reminded that there is a Lucy,.... and her attendant football........

That's why some folks aren't jumping on the long-range-cold bandwagon yet, although the indices seem favorable.

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Too much variability in model runs , because of the major pattern changes. People can’t get excited about 1 run that shows snow, and 6 hours later it shows 60s! And we are holding our breath hoping the unicorn SSW will help us have a blockbuster winter

Not that im an expert. But if youll do like Im doing and start learning H5 and look at the pattern forecast and evoloution, youll see with confidence that table is setting up nicely to get the cold back in here. Been seasonal, but SE you always need a nudge BN. Cold is coming. As JB says use metorology not modelology. That pac ridge coming is gonna be a beaut and just what we need to send the canadian air down this way, espeacilly up at the 850 level. The unicorn want be ssw but keeping the stj going like it has and supply the moisture,time up right. The pv split is already happeneing and  the dominoes are begining to fall in place. Be of good cheer for the new snow white year thats coming.

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2 hours ago, Shack said:

Well, we've all just got finished watching "Charlie Brown Christmas", and are reminded that there is a Lucy,.... and her attendant football........

Southeast tracking in a nutshell

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