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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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44 minutes ago, griteater said:

Just don't have enough well-entrenched cold air to the south.  We want to see both Tennessee and North Carolina full of cold air prior to the storm as opposed to cold air retreating in TN and hanging on via cold air damming in NC as the storm approaches.  Cold air damming is great to have, just need it cold in TN prior to the storm as well for more snow.

Honestly, it always makes me nervous for a mostly snow storm if it isnt snowing in Nashville. 

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Interested to see how the STJ upcoming split flow times out these southern sliding pieces of energy. Now that we have a pattern to work in that's conducive to being cold enough for frozen. These HP sliding across and not being interfered with by GL on top of the fire hose that want shut off underneath us, tells me we are fixing to get a belly full of winter threats. I'm betting by mid-late next week will be in another storm thread , Jan 17-19.

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On 1/8/2019 at 12:36 PM, NCSNOW said:

Interested to see how the STJ upcoming split flow times out these southern sliding pieces of energy. Now that we have a pattern to work in that's conducive to being cold enough for frozen. These HP sliding across and not being interfered with by GL on top of the fire hose that want shut off underneath us, tells me we are fixing to get a belly full of winter threats. I'm betting by mid-late next week will be in another storm thread , Jan 17-19.

Doesn’t matter about the firehose, we can’t get the cold down here!

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One thing bothering me, even into the long range on the GFS is the storm track seems absolutely locked in on bringing lows through central AL & GA instead of along the gulf. Need some suppression, but I’m scared to even ask for it cause then you end up with last January with the Deep South along the coast getting snow while it’s sunny and in the 20’s here lol.

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32 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Yep need some of that blocking neg nao that was advertised and sst mjo bs

Good luck with that! It’s been “ happening “ , since mid-late December, and I just got 5 days in a row of 60s, in the coldest part of winter

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4 hours ago, SnowDawg said:

One thing bothering me, even into the long range on the GFS is the storm track seems absolutely locked in on bringing lows through central AL & GA instead of along the gulf. Need some suppression, but I’m scared to even ask for it cause then you end up with last January with the Deep South along the coast getting snow while it’s sunny and in the 20’s here lol.

Storms do not track through southern GA, southern SC, or northern FL in winter anymore.  The will track through the southern part of any other state in the US but not those three.

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45 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

That was a nice LR run for the midlands and coastal SC on the GFS. 

I saw a big SC run, think it was yesterday or day before around this time frame on one of the globals. Talk about a place long overdo in the SE, Thats the one. Although I think a few years back stormsfurry and Charleston did score a couple. Anyway Next weekend is powerball, Woof.    Deal where you go big or go home

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11 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

I saw a big SC run, think it was yesterday or day before around this time frame on one of the globals. Talk about a place long overdo in the SE, Thats the one. Although I think a few years back stormsfurry and Charleston did score a couple. Anyway Next weekend is powerball, Woof.    Deal where you go big or go home

January 3, 2018 - Charleston and much of the SC Coast (inland in GA).  Not sure they have too many years where back to back years produces, but it looks like a possibility.

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The big dog "Joe Bastardi" is beating the drum that brutal cold will begin effecting the east coast for a 7 week period starting later this month into March.... Claims this was his forecast from last August....We shall see if he is correct or a bust....

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16 minutes ago, NorthernUpstateSC said:

The big dog "Joe Bastardi" is beating the drum that brutal cold will begin effecting the east coast for a 7 week period starting later this month into March.... Claims this was his forecast from last August....We shall see if he is correct or a bust....

Yeah he says all players are on the field  

He did make forecast back in August about a cold and snowy winter.

 

 

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Anthony Masiello tweets:

"Stage 1 is complete (poleward, fast, less split jet stream with lots of Tropical Heat). Stage 2 has started (an increase in wave activity, loss of momentum and continued splitting of mean NH jet). Stage 3 is enhanced STJ/westerly AAM phase (think November)."

"What is coming ahead is analogous to getting favorable intraseasonal oscillations at peak tropical season in early Sep. Predicting hurricanes in early Sep is kinda meh. Well, late Jan into early Feb will have favorable intraseasonal state for winter in E-C US/UK."

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9 minutes ago, griteater said:

Anthony Masiello tweets:

"Stage 1 is complete (poleward, fast, less split jet stream with lots of Tropical Heat). Stage 2 has started (an increase in wave activity, loss of momentum and continued splitting of mean NH jet). Stage 3 is enhanced STJ/westerly AAM phase (think November)."

"What is coming ahead is analogous to getting favorable intraseasonal oscillations at peak tropical season in early Sep. Predicting hurricanes in early Sep is kinda meh. Well, late Jan into early Feb will have favorable intraseasonal state for winter in E-C US/UK."

I understood only 5% of either of those tweets, just the very last sentence. February winter good right? No idea why he says it though. Lol.

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GFS seems pretty locked on a cold pattern starting next week. Euro is less bullish as it's got a lot of garbage in the Pacific. I think despite the failure of the SSW to cause a full split and reversal of the zonal mean winds, it has weakened all that substantially and that may be enough to give us a wintry pattern for a while. I have no idea what the MJO will contribute since it's about to go into the COD and then maybe loop back (we can hope).

I'm appreciating that this cool down we're having now has been more robust than it looked last week. I was not expecting lower 20s any time soon.

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

Here's the WSI version of the Euro weeklies.  Week 4 looks fantastic

casbvUD.png

WF7n4aQ.png

Been quite a while since we've seen Jan-Feb blocking, and telleconnection alignment like THAT.

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11 hours ago, tnweathernut said:

January 3, 2018 - Charleston and much of the SC Coast (inland in GA).  Not sure they have too many years where back to back years produces, but it looks like a possibility.

I got a nice fluffy 5" here in the Burg, time before that was 8.5" in 2010, before that 89 and 73....

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1 hour ago, 33rd Street said:

Been quite a while since we've seen Jan-Feb blocking, and telleconnection alignment like THAT.

Holy hell... WHAT CAN GO WRONG?!?!

 

(A LOT)

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9 hours ago, WidreMann said:

GFS seems pretty locked on a cold pattern starting next week. Euro is less bullish as it's got a lot of garbage in the Pacific. I think despite the failure of the SSW to cause a full split and reversal of the zonal mean winds, it has weakened all that substantially and that may be enough to give us a wintry pattern for a while. I have no idea what the MJO will contribute since it's about to go into the COD and then maybe loop back (we can hope).

I'm appreciating that this cool down we're having now has been more robust than it looked last week. I was not expecting lower 20s any time soon.

My understanding the SSW split the heck out of and destroyed the PV and reversal of the zonal mean winds was close to a record duration.  They still are probably reversed now, have been since January 1.  Did I miss something on that? 

image.png.d5738b361c107aea0fa1297ae5954b42.png

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2 hours ago, SnowNiner said:

My understanding the SSW split the heck out of and destroyed the PV and reversal of the zonal mean winds was close to a record duration.  They still are probably reversed now, have been since January 1.  Did I miss something on that? 

image.png.d5738b361c107aea0fa1297ae5954b42.png

No you’re right. I believe it just peaked yesterday and is now set for a slow recovery. 

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3 hours ago, SnowNiner said:

My understanding the SSW split the heck out of and destroyed the PV and reversal of the zonal mean winds was close to a record duration.  They still are probably reversed now, have been since January 1.  Did I miss something on that? 

Yes, it was an official SSW with zonal winds reversing from westerly (+) to easterly (-) at 10mb in the stratosphere averaged over the globe at 60N, and also occurring at a time when the strat PV should be at its strongest of the winter. The wind reversal has lasted 10-11 days now and may end in a week or so (pending).  The red/purple/orange line is this year.  The blue line is last year, where the SSW wind reversal lasted 17 days in February. 

gyBikPk.png

 

I don't know of the exact definition of an SSW split vs. displacement, but I would think this one qualifies as a split just based on the 10mb height images.  However, it wasn't a violent split like we saw last year and in other years where there is strong heat flux that comes up from the troposphere in conjunction with heat flux in the stratosphere.  With this one, the heat flux that weakened the strat PV was focused in the stratosphere alone - note the focused orange colors above 100mb in the stratosphere near Christmas. 

xX3ozD3.png

 

As far as the SSW's effect on the AO, we see that the effects have been hard to come by so far.  "Northern Annular Mode" here is essentially the AO, so the blue coloring shows that the AO has turned negative in the stratosphere, and is trying to work its way down into the troposphere on the right side of the image, but it remains to be seen how forceful it will propagate downward.

NF1rqii.png

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We can get all the Atlantic Blocking, PV spliting, Daughter Vorticities etc.  BUt we have to have the pna + or we will never benefit from the AO and NAO tanking. Lot of chatter for good reason about the HOLY GRAIL Pattern coming up. But we in the SE have to have the pacific cooperate to maximize things

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12 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

We can get all the Atlantic Blocking, PV spliting, Daughter Vorticities etc.  BUt we have to have the pna + or we will never benefit from the AO and NAO tanking. Lot of chatter for good reason about the HOLY GRAIL Pattern coming up. But we in the SE have to have the pacific cooperate to maximize things

The +PNA/-EPO is going to come regardless, as it does every year.  I'm hoping the SSW will create a true -NAO in February like week 4 of the weeklies (lose the WAR).  Get the PV in SE Canada with blocking over top and we crush.  It not, we Miller B crap like this weekend IMO. 

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