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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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21 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Nice little thump on 0z euro.2-4  i40 Nc From mtns to Raleigh area. Continues to not wind up the low, sheared energy.

6z GFS improved over 0z... Colder, low off coast, and better CAD. Baby steps :)

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GFS turned into a southern slider.. looks like mainly driven by the jetstream flattening out and good confluence up north. Hopefully not a blip and trends continue for NC/SC

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1 minute ago, ajr said:

GFS turned into a southern slider.. looks like mainly driven by the jetstream flattening out and good confluence up north. Hopefully not a blip and trends continue for NC/SC

GFS caving to the Euro.... what a surprise.

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Another snow event for the South ?

Incredible

With cold air already in place, I think CAD will come in a little stronger in upcoming runs and ice may be the bigger story; especially for folks in S. NC into the upstate / NE Ga.  

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Just now, FallsLake said:

With cold air already in place, I think CAD will come in a little stronger in upcoming runs and ice may be the bigger story; especially for folks in S. NC into the upstate / NE Ga.  

Happy for the South but some of us in the northeast are starving lol

Enjoy if this ends up being squashed =)

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19 hours ago, jjwxman said:

It's now the "old" GFS.  Let's see what the FV3 has to offer.  Out with the old in with the new right? Heh... :yikes:

Suru Saha, a union steward at the Environmental Modeling Center in College Park, Md., said the main impact has been on the National Weather Service’s new global forecast model, which was scheduled to go live in February but will surely be delayed because of the shutdown.

But in the meantime, the current Global Forecast System — or the GFS — the United States' premier weather model, is running poorly, and there’s no one on duty to fix it. “ -Angela Fritz

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/07/national-weather-service-is-open-your-forecast-is-worse-because-shutdown/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.8e077a25ee84

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31 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Worried about stale cold, slightly!? If this cold front comes through Wed, an the storm came later Saturday, then might be hard to hold on to cold that long?

As long as we can keep that feed of cold air down from the north (in CAD), we should be fine. Cut that source off and we end up rain. 

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We still have some model wars: 

The euro, Ukie, icon, and now the GFS have a more suppressed look; which gives many more folks (like me ha ha) a chance of wintery precip.

The CMC and the FV3 are stronger and farther north with the low; which gives DC a big hit. NW NC & S. VA would still get a decent hit of ice.   

 

Edit: added Ukie

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55 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Worried about stale cold, slightly!? If this cold front comes through Wed, an the storm came later Saturday, then might be hard to hold on to cold that long?

I fully understand where your coming from. This will be different than one of our normal worries you alluded to. We will have NE flow the whole time at the surface. For mby Id say my biggest concern is to end up getting northern fringed due to suppression, which would be good news for you upstate folks. Still think from your area back into NE GA will score  frozen. Precip should start before sunrise Sat for yall if my timing is right reading models. Dont hold me to it, but thats another posotive.

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Looked good for Asheville, Marion, Morganton, Hickory, Wilkesboro, Winston, and other points north and west.

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

06Z GFS keeps all these same cities in the game and expands the impacrs to Greensboro, Burlington, Roxboro, etc. I'm liking our chances...

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Happy for the South but some of us in the northeast are starving lol

Enjoy if this ends up being squashed =)

Its 2009/2010 reversed. Yall couldnt find ways not to jackpot.

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32 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

As long as we can keep that feed of cold air down from the north (in CAD), we should be fine. Cut that source off and we end up rain. 

So far, it looks like a pretty classical CAD setup.  And, the air mass should be colder than December, so I’d expect a bigger deal, if these trends continue.

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How bout the Nam. Is it runing poorly and no govt worker around to fix it as well? Or is runing normal and we can rely on it like we normally do, the caveat having to adjust to all its known biases, faults etc.  Hate to be looking at it Friday and no warm nose showing up, thinking our column is all snow sounding,then waking up saturday to pinging noise.

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3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

How bout the Nam. Is it runing poorly and no govt worker around to fix it as well? Or is runing normal and we can rely on it like we normally do, the caveat having to adjust to all its known biases, faults etc.  Hate to be looking at it Friday and no warm nose showing up, thinking our column is all snow sounding,then waking up saturday to pinging noise.

...we'll have to use the RGEM in its place. 

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RAH sounds really bullish this far out.  Really good discussion.

There remains little to no change in forecast rationale from 24 hrs
ago, with average to above average forecast confidence in the
overall pattern, but below average confidence in details.

The middle Atlantic states will be firmly influenced by cold,
continental polar high pressure extending from the upr Midwest to
the Carolinas through the end of the week. 850 mb temperatures
trailing a pair of polar fronts that will cross cntl NC tonight and
Wednesday are forecast to nadir around minus 11-12 at GSO by 12Z
Thu. Related cold air advection will support a strong nwly breeze,
amidst a deeply mixed boundary layer, even nocturnally Wed night,
with wind chill values in the teens through late morning Thu.
Although the wind will subside by Thu night, the presence of a
"break-off", 1030 mb surface high over the wrn Carolinas Fri morning
will support colder air temperatures - mostly between 20 and 25
degrees. High temperatures will be similarly chilly, in the upr 30s
to mid 40s Thu and perhaps a 2-3 degrees less cold on Fri.

While the aforementioned mid-upr low/trough will lift newd and away
from the nern US through the end of the week, renewed nrn stream
amplification, with a few distinct shortwave troughs embedded
within, is forecast to occur from cntl Canada to the cntl
Appalachians Fri-Mon. At the same time, a srn stream shortwave
trough is forecast to migrate across the srn US, likely immediately
preceding the nrn stream troughs (ie. slightly out of phase),
through Sat-Sat night. None of those features, most borne from the
large, deep cyclone over the ern/e-cntl N. Pacific this morning, are
not forecast to reach the NOAM rawinsonde network until 12Z Thu; and
it will likely be the 00Z Fri NWP runs that provide a marked boost
in model agreement and forecast confidence - after those features
will have been sampled twice by the upr air network (12Z Thu and 00Z
Fri), and previous model run initialization influences been dampened
by hopefully "better" data.

Further complicating the forecast by D6-7 --and possible
continuation of large scale ascent, deformation, precipitation
production over the middle Atlantic states--  will be the degree of
Arctic stream amplification across the sern Canada/Great
Lakes/Northeast vicinity, as well as the ejection of additional srn
stream energy beneath a developing Rex block over the wrn CONUS.

Despite those complexities and details, the overall pattern will be
one supportive of cyclogenesis from the GOM to the middle Atlantic
coast, with a track and intensity close to the preferred GEFS and
EPS means. Specifically, such a solution is unlike the wrn outlier
00Z/8th deterministic GFS track, which favors an inland track
through ern NC and warmer solution for cntl NC; and it is closer to
the 00Z/8th deterministic ECMWF track (ie. more offshore and colder
for cntl NC), and stronger. Additionally strong confluence aloft
over the nrn middle Atlantic states and Northeast, though to varying
degrees given the uncertainties aloft described above, will favor a
well-positioned, and strong, cold high extending across the middle
Atlantic states - one that will provide sufficient cold air to
support measurable snow across parts of the middle Atlantic
Piedmont, including probably the climatologically-favored nrn and
wrn NC Piedmont, from late Sat-early Sun, and potentially
longer.
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Let me know if that runs off the page to the right and I’ll delete it.  Posting from my phone and it was giving me a hard time with selecting the appropriate section.

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9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Let me know if that runs off the page to the right and I’ll delete it.  Posting from my phone and it was giving me a hard time with selecting the appropriate section.

No its fine, and you're right they're bullish.

Might be time for a dedicated thread..... but I know nobody wants to jinx it. 

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Going off what RAH said, the 6z GEFS was even better than the 0z (which RAH was refereeing to). Low slight more south with a better high configuration to the north:

6z:

 

 

aaaa.jpg

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I like that high placement but not so much where the LP is

 

edit:  It's baggy though at 1017 so hopefully not too much WAA in my neck of the woods

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Have to feel pretty good in Greensboro when the official NWS  forecast is:

Saturday
A chance of snow after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday Night
Snow likely, mainly after 8pm. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

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QUE The Brick to start us up a thread. He usually has the mojo. Tell you what this will be the second thread a needle timing event this winter with the Cad HP sliding into perfect position right as we have a southern wave sliding west to east underneath us. Tis our season so far, knock on wood!

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