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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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Crankywxguy’s blog has some helpful info — essentially it’ll all come down to how the waves phase and progress.. the northern pacific is complex right now with multiple waves/interactions. May be best to wait a few days for the pieces to develop before going all-in one way or another.

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3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I think the CMC had some ridiculous ice totals for the Dec event!? It has a tendency to spit out apocalyptic ice totals!

True, and to be fair it has been running too cold on its surface temps.  

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9 minutes ago, griteater said:

From NOAA's Weekly MJO Update

SsHYPZP.png

Sure hope the latter comes to fruition Grit.  The CPC 14 day outlook sucks this afternoon, although the NAO does look to go negative at the end.  Of course, the possibility of a winter storm in the southeast this weekend shows how quickly things can change around here!  Now, if only the Tigers can make a good showing tonight I'll be happy with whatever happens over the next couple of weeks....

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22 minutes ago, griteater said:

From NOAA's Weekly MJO Update

SsHYPZP.png

What a bummer if the convection goes across the COD and back to the Maritime Continent.  Unless nino REALLY couples and takes over the pattern that would probably put the SE out of the game for the foreseeable future.  Hopefully the EURO is wrong, as it has been for the last month or so....

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Nice write-up from NWS GSP.  They acknowledge the potential but remain cautious.

Quote
Cold air in place at precip onset Friday night allows for some
wintry weather potential. Soundings do indicate a warm nose, but
oddly enough for most of our area it looks like even the warm nose
is below freezing (well, for now anyway). Partial thicknesses and
associated nomograms are trending cooler too, which does help
simplify the forecast, but we are still at least 5 days out, so
PLENTY of time for this to get far more complicated. GFS moves the
bulk of the precip through Saturday into Saturday night, but ECMWF
lingers the upper trough a little longer with the attendant moisture
lingering into Sunday night across our area. Have continued
rain/snow wording, not yet introducing any mixed p-types. For now,
although confidence is increasing in a winter weather event,
confidence is quite low on any amounts and most guidance remains on
the lighter side (12z GEFS plumes have decreased with storm total
snow amounts across the mountains vs. the 06z plumes, and generally
below winter storm criteria for most of the area). Plenty of time to
adjust.

 

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Looking at the Euro Ensemble Trends thru today's 12z run, the western U.S. ridging and the amplitude of our storm wave over the Mississippi Valley have increased (at least on its backside)...but the storm wave is trending more positive tilt - so the amplitude/tilt trade off is kind of a wash.  If you increased the amplitude, but kept the wave more neutral tilt, you'd have a farther north/warmer solution (but you can see that the angle of the height lines thru North Carolina really hasn't changed).  The cold air damming signal is increasing as well, as to be expected.  It kind of looks like a central/northern mtns, foothills, NW Piedmont (and north) wintry event at the moment IMO, but plenty of time for it to change.  

jehkmCp.gif

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

New Euro Weeklies

p780WIG.gif

 

 

 

I get the feeling once this colder eastern NA pattern arrives, it is going to want to really crank and stay for a while. 

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14 minutes ago, griteater said:

Yeah GFS bumped south this run - puts more folks in NC in play for wintry precip this run compared to last

Lol, not sure I'm reading this right but it looks like north of the Iredell/Meck county line stays snow or very close to it.  I have little faith in a system that moves that far north before transferring giving MBY much frozen, but I hope somebody in the 40 corridor gets slammed.  I'd rather have a nice amped storm where some of us score rather than a weak sauce event with a bit of frozen. 

image.thumb.png.dbcd04d9f8846e942242c79488488ad0.png

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1 hour ago, SouthCentralWakeCo said:

e18 please!

Death, taxes, and someone claiming there favorite imby e__ 

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I have no idea what that mess was at halftime. Thought models where hard to understand. Time has passed me by. Clemson looking good. Gone be flakes flying at the ticker tate parade. Take pics Mack.

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3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

0z GFS sucked for winter weather, outside the mountains and Wilkes county! MA forum is probably doing backflips now ! :(

Considering the Low was in Tennessee on the GFS earlier, I wouldn't worry too much.

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0z GFS sucked for winter weather, outside the mountains and Wilkes county! MA forum is probably doing backflips now !
Looked good for Asheville, Marion, Morganton, Hickory, Wilkesboro, Winston, and other points north and west.

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

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