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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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On 6/8/2019 at 11:15 AM, griteater said:

The trajectory of the training cells here traveling south to north and NNW, and banking up against the Blue Ridge looks rather ominous for heavy rains and localized to regional flash flooding.  Precipitable water / moisture content is high.  Focus of the heavy rain threat looks to extend thru Sunday night.

This is one time when I wish you had been wrong, grit.

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On 6/5/2019 at 8:04 PM, jpbart said:

 Of course I am going to Brevard this Sunday to fish on the Davidson River, I hope it's not a wash out.  I will fish in the rain so long as its not a thunderstorm.

How are things on the river? :yikes:

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18 hours ago, jburns said:

How are things on the river? :yikes:

Too muddy to fish.  Did get some casting lessons in and grabbed lunch at a nice restaurant so it was a an ok day.  We will try again soon. 

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Some nice temperature days this week (for summer). Ensembles show the ridge building across the southern 1/3 of the country going into the last week of June which would bring more high heat into the picture 

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4 hours ago, griteater said:

Some nice temperature days this week (for summer). Ensembles show the ridge building across the southern 1/3 of the country going into the last week of June which would bring more high heat into the picture 

Maybe the higher soil moisture will keep the brutal heat away!?

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15 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Maybe the higher soil moisture will keep the brutal heat away!?

Yeah it may help early on. Ensembles not showing the late May stuff, but it shows the ridge building to where it would be warmer than normals 

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4 hours ago, shahroz98 said:

Trends on the CFS for Nov-Dec-Jan look nice

I'm too old to look that far out.  I don't even buy green bananas.

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It's gonna be May all over again!

Lows in the 69-73 range,
with highs in the mid to upper 80s NW, and generally 90-93
elsewhere.

Even hotter weather with a bit lesser chances of PM thunderstorms
may develop next weekend, if the upper ridge gets stronger over
portions of the SE states, as some of the latest models suggest.

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3 hours ago, Solak said:

It's gonna be May all over again!

Lows in the 69-73 range,
with highs in the mid to upper 80s NW, and generally 90-93
elsewhere.

Even hotter weather with a bit lesser chances of PM thunderstorms
may develop next weekend, if the upper ridge gets stronger over
portions of the SE states, as some of the latest models suggest.

Patterns tend to repeat, even if they suck! Unless they are cold and snowy, then it’s a 1 and done 3 day stretch per winter! :(

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7 hours ago, Solak said:

It's gonna be May all over again!

Lows in the 69-73 range,
with highs in the mid to upper 80s NW, and generally 90-93
elsewhere.

Even hotter weather with a bit lesser chances of PM thunderstorms
may develop next weekend, if the upper ridge gets stronger over
portions of the SE states, as some of the latest models suggest.

Strengthening ridge over the SE? No way who would have thought that? Models are guaranteed to nail that at long range.

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20 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Patterns tend to repeat, even if they suck! Unless they are cold and snowy, then it’s a 1 and done 3 day stretch per winter! :(

Good.  We'll expect the rainy pattern from last week to repeat over and over this summer!

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3 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

Good.  We'll expect the rainy pattern from last week to repeat over and over this summer!

Doesn't work that way! Only patterns we don't want repeat around here!

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On 6/15/2019 at 8:33 PM, jburns said:

I'm too old to look that far out.  I don't even buy green bananas.

Laugh out loud. In my experience, they'd be brown by the time you got them home anyway. :angry:

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Looking ahead, this upcoming winter is going to be amazing!! Wall to wall cold from Oct-Nov, then torch till late March, then more wall to wall cold until May!


Then I guess we better hope for a November snow storm


.

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19 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Looking ahead, this upcoming winter is going to be amazing!! Wall to wall cold from Oct-Nov, then torch till late March, then more wall to wall cold until May! :)

You can make this happen but you'll have to live in the COSTCO dairy room all winter.

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31 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

This has been one of the nicest Junes we’ve had in forever

I agree, I can not remember my pond at capacity this time of year ever.

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I think my biggest frustration with the "New Normal", so to speak, is that the excessively high dew points every day means that we are nearly 100% of the time above "average" on our lows even when we are near or below normal on our highs.

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Baby steps.  From the RAH forecast discussion.

 

Some notable trends have unfolded in the guidance over the past day
or so, namely a trend toward a more unsettled weather pattern for
especially the first half of the long term, which would in effect
limit the excessive heat potential that we are expecting for the mid-
week period.
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^^RAH back to the doom and gloom for the 4th: 

Thu/Thu night: The potential for both thunderstorms and high heat indices remain the biggest weather concerns for the 4th of July. PW will be anomalously high, nearing or perhaps exceeding the daily record, as the weak surface wind field along the Piedmont trough makes for stagnant air, contributing to the stifling heat. Thicknesses are likely to be 10-15 m above normal with deep mixing. While forecast soundings and the steering flow pattern suggest that there should be considerable mid and high cloudiness, a brief capping near 850 mb Thu morning may initially inhibit cu formation, leading to increased insolation. Highs should be in the low-mid 90s, and with expected dewpoints in the low-mid 70s, a heat index ranging from the upper 90s to lower 100s is reasonable. Those outdoors and not taking breaks in air conditioning will need to be mindful of threats posed by heat illnesses in such conditions. The very weak mid level flow featuring multiple hard-to-track perturbations within a very moist column should result in a high pop but with low timing and spatial predictability. Given the precip variation among large scale models, will cap thunderstorm pops at around 50% late in the day through evening (potentially interfering with holiday activities), with a tapering down to lower chance late overnight. I would not be at all surprised to see all models trending even wetter for the 4th in their later runs. And with weak steering, moderate CAPE, and high PW, heavy downpours could produce pockets of high, flooding totals.

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