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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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FXUS62 KRAH 232337
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
736 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 320 PM Thursday...
Hints of a large scale pattern change begin to
be seen late Wed through Thu, when anomalous low heights over the
Western US appear to finally rise and give way to falling heights
over Canada that should help tamp down the Southeast ridge. This
will allow energy over the Rockies to take on a more southern track
eastward across the Carolinas with strengthening SW 850 mb flow
helping to draw more moisture into NC. 
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2 minutes ago, Midnight Moon said:
FXUS62 KRAH 232337
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
736 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 320 PM Thursday...
Hints of a large scale pattern change begin to
be seen late Wed through Thu, when anomalous low heights over the
Western US appear to finally rise and give way to falling heights
over Canada that should help tamp down the Southeast ridge. This
will allow energy over the Rockies to take on a more southern track
eastward across the Carolinas with strengthening SW 850 mb flow
helping to draw more moisture into NC. 

I was just about to post the same thing.  Keep hope alive.

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On 5/22/2019 at 3:20 PM, Brick Tamland said:

Well, guess we are in the boring part of the year with regards to weather here. Looking forward to going to the beach, lake, and amusement parks this summer. But have to hang out at the midwest forum to get my severe weather fix. 

Yep...not a lot to say when it's hot and dry day after day.

This much heat this early is depressing as hell. The only positive  is that if its going to be hot it might as well be record setting. Although ffc isn't forecasting 100 here, I expect I will. Euro has been showing 100 here for days....last night run is still showing 100 here from sat through Thursday. Ridiculous.

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When is this pattern going to break?!

This is just pure hell for this area.

Normally upper 80- low 90s with afternoon storms.

It's been every bit of 95-97 degrees here, no clouds no seabreeze storms. Just hot dry wind.

I'm afraid setting up for a bad drought for parts of FL, GA, SC, Al 

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Long range models do show the extreme heat being knocked back starting this weekend. Even some dew points in the 40s in the extended. Hopefully that holds....

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3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Long range models do show the extreme heat being knocked back starting this weekend. Even some dew points in the 40s in the extended. Hopefully that holds....

Yep-saw that.  Fingers crossed!  I cant take this thru Labor Day...

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Not a cloud in the sky here today.  Dewpoints / Humidity are down east of the mountains and temperatures are high, and it's breezy....an early summer scorcher.  Some relief is on the way beginning Friday and thru next week.

 

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18 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Long range models do show the extreme heat being knocked back starting this weekend. Even some dew points in the 40s in the extended. Hopefully that holds....

As much as I am rooting for this to be true.  this sounds a lot like our winter discussion of pattern changing snow in the long range kind of thing.  I have given up on my lawn (weed patch) and just trying to keep the gardens from getting baked alive. 

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5 hours ago, jpbart said:

As much as I am rooting for this to be true.  this sounds a lot like our winter discussion of pattern changing snow in the long range kind of thing.  I have given up on my lawn (weed patch) and just trying to keep the gardens from getting baked alive. 

We're at such an extreme that something has to give. Even going to normal or slightly above would be a win right now. **but the 12z models continue to show the cool down starting this weekend. 

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I am going to see Hootie and the Blowfish Friday night at Walnut Creek so of course now there is storms on the Hi-Res for Friday night.....figures the first rain in a month will be the one night I dont want it....

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18 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Perfect.  Early cold flip, then another December Destroyer snow storm, and then.....well, we know what happens next.  I give this prediction a 99.8% chance of verifying.  The .02 leaves room for a Yellowstone eruption.

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Lower heights/trof return tomorrow,death ridge being weakened and pushed back out.Better rain chances begin around day 6 on the Euro,GFS is similar.

 

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019053012_240_480_220.png

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Looks like most of SC misses out on storms today. Sigh. Guess we wait till at least the middle of next week before anymore rain chances. :thumbsdown::fulltilt::weep:

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1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

I "officially" hit 100 back to back on Wednesday and yesterday... Glad that the ridge is weakening 

Me too. We just avoided triple digits here. But a nasty string of 96-98 degree highs. Still very dry.

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Looks like we get more chances for rain starting this Wednesday. Most of the models show ~ 1-2" during the next week.

LR models show the possibility of some cool days here and there (..big variations of when). Any cool days we get this time of year should be treasured.     

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RAH:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...

...Confidence increasing of a multi-day heavy rain threat across the
Southeast Friday through early next week...
 A 4 to 5 day period of anomalously high PWATS of 2.0" or
more(potentially enhanced by tropical remnants of the disturbance in
the Bay of Campeche) during which a stalled frontal zone will bisect
the area followed by increasing cyclonic flow aloft and then the
arrival of strong synoptic lift with the upper level trough and cold
front moving into the area will result in a multi-day heavy rainfall
threat across the region with a cumulative 2-4"  of rain possible.

 

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On 5/31/2019 at 5:35 PM, scwxfan said:

Me too. We just avoided triple digits here. But a nasty string of 96-98 degree highs. Still very dry.

Same here...was generally between 97 to 99 but never 100 so euro was a few degrees too warm....but certainly that was bad enough.  Soooooo glad that hellish pattern finally has changed. Its bone dry here...indeed on the line of moderate drought....seems likely most get enough rain to change the course over the next few weeks...thankfully avoiding conditions getting worse. Hate to think what this summer would be like if we maintained that pattern. 

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1 hour ago, Reedski said:

Heck yeah. Still hasn’t rained at my house in CAE since 5/11. Got dark and windy for a time yesterday but sun was out within 30 mins. Need some rain! 

Had a very light sprinkle for about 5 minutes yesterday in the Blythewood area. Some of our plants are starting to wilt from the very long period of no rain.

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