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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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9 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Or to make more folks happy, expand the coverage. 

True.  There is that option.  I don't think either one is likely, though -- westward trend or expansion of coverage.  I think you stand the best chance of getting something in your backyard if you live to the north and east of Raleigh in this setup.  But, who knows?  We'll keep watching...

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35 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

True.  There is that option.  I don't think either one is likely, though -- westward trend or expansion of coverage.  I think you stand the best chance of getting something in your backyard if you live to the north and east of Raleigh in this setup.  But, who knows?  We'll keep watching...

Yeah it's just fun tracking something. I wont lose sleep if/when this thing disappears.

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Just need that westward trend...

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So says someone who has seen snow this year. Haven’t had any here in eastern NC.

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RAH:

Monday through Wednesday, low confidence as model spread continues. We will carry a good chance of showers late Monday into Tuesday. However the storm track and timing are still in debate, along with the strength. For now, a low pressure track from the TN valley east across SC or far southern NC is favored, with cold high pressure to the north acting as a block from a more northward track. Most likely the temperatures will remain fairly cool, except possibly in the SE zones (if the warm sector can advance into that region). QPF could be significant again (1+ inch), but too early to pin this down. Much more on this potential system in the coming days.

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55 minutes ago, tramadoc said:

So says someone who has seen snow this year. Haven’t had any here in eastern NC.

Oh, come on!  =)

You know everyone pulls for snow in their own backyards.  It doesn't mean I hate people that live in eastern NC or anything.  If you guys get snow out of this, I will enjoy seeing your pictures, just as I did when the posters from Jacksonville, NC, shared a few weeks back.  I also think it's more likely (see earlier post) that you will see snow out of this than I will.

Anyway, I pull for snow IMBY every month of the year -- January - December.  Those of you pulling for spring to prevail now that we are in late March don't march to the beat of the same drum as do I.  The advent of spring only means that summer (and the awful heat and humidity) will shortly be here.  Ugh!

Winter is coming...

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Oh, come on!  =)
You know everyone pulls for snow in their own backyards.  It doesn't mean I hate people that live in eastern NC or anything.  If you guys get snow out of this, I will enjoy seeing your pictures, just as I did when the posters from Jacksonville, NC, shared a few weeks back.  I also think it's more likely (see earlier post) that you will see snow out of this than I will.
Anyway, I pull for snow IMBY every month of the year -- January - December.  Those of you pulling for spring to prevail now that we are in late March don't march to the beat of the same drum as do I.  The advent of spring only means that summer (and the awful heat and humidity) will shortly be here.  Ugh!
Winter is coming...

Can’t we all just get a snow? LOL


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Well c'est la vie..... Our storm is gone. As happened many times this winter, once it got to the day 5 mark the models lose it. You can say the models are now better closer to events; or I think they've become worse in the medium range.  

A lesson (or rule) for next winter; storms have to be modeled less than day 5 before taken seriously.   

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2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

well, as usual, it appears the snow is gone.  bring on spring temps.  

Yeah, we can still track freeze/frost potentials. 

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Hard freeze coming Saturday night:

RAH:

A hard freeze is expected over portions of the Piedmont Saturday night, with a frost and light freeze in the SE zones that have begun the Frost/Freeze program. This will likely lead to Freeze Warnings in these areas. Clear skies, calm winds, and exceptional radiational cooling under the Continental Polar air mass will lead to lows in the 27-30 degree range over the Piedmont, with lower 30s in the SE.

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8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

The Friday morning models aren't far from something for NC...  just need the low more south.

I saw that...We do have a little time for this to trend better. 

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Man, this place is hot!  :)

 

We do have some frost/freezes coming for tomorrow night:

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 PM Monday... 1030-1035 mb continental Polar high pressure will build from the Great Lakes to the nrn middle Atlantic states, while ridging swd in the lee of the Appalachians, Tue-Tue night. This high will be led swd by a secondary surface cold front, analyzed at 19Z from Long Island wwd across nrn NJ and s-cntl PA, forecast to cross cntl NC Tue morning. Related CAA and nely breeze/low level flow will yield unseasonably cool temperatures mainly in the lwr-mid 50s, despite a mostly sunny afternoon that will follow north to south clearing of the preceding post-frontal band of stratocumulus. A shortwave trough will dig from the cntl High Plains this afternoon, sewd and offshore the GA/FL coast by Wed morning, with associated cloudiness that will remain south of cntl NC. Skies will consequently remain clear; and given the presence of the aforementioned strong surface ridge, strong radiational cooling will result. Freezing temperatures are consequently likely throughout cntl NC overnight (26-32 degrees), down a few degrees from previous forecasts. This will likely necessitate a progression of Freeze Watches/Warnings in subsequent forecast issuances where the growing season has officially begun, relative to the climatological median date of the last Spring freeze (ie. the ern Coastal Plain and Sandhills).

 

 

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34 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I'm surprised Orangeburg is not all over this. 

12z FV3 snow depth at hour 168:

 

 

aaaa.jpg

LOL, not gonna happen.

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5 hours ago, JoshM said:

Don't know why it's so quiet. There's still a chance, it's so close! :weenie::bag:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_22.png

It's still too far out.... and I have my doubts about the amount of precip that will fall this far west.

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22 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

06Z GFS super close to something...

06Z FV3 says game on.  (for now, probably gone later)

What is the EURO saying?

Euro is more of a mountains/foothills event. Mack would actually get a little sleet before things shifted northward into the higher elevations of NC and VA. Of course we would like to see the FV3 verify but I would put my bets on the euro. 

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Just now, jpbart said:

After a series of winter storms giving us rounds of -> high hopes ->crushing disappointment -> repeat.  I am not buying into anything more than 100 hours out and hell this time of year 72 hours is still suspect.

I absolutely agree. 

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2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Euro is more of a mountains/foothills event. Mack would actually get a little sleet before things shifted northward into the higher elevations of NC and VA. Of course we would like to see the FV3 verify but I would put my bets on the euro. 

I can’t get snow from last half of December through now, so wouldn’t surprise me to have an April snow! Local mets going with upper 50s Monday and Tuesday, they must not look at models!? After 75 on Sunday, that’ll feel great!:)

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3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

I can’t get snow from last half of December through now, so wouldn’t surprise me to have an April snow! Local mets going with upper 50s Monday and Tuesday, they must not look at models!? After 75 on Sunday, that’ll feel great!:)

The 12z ICON has joined the euro on showing a significant elevation (mountains/foothills) winter storm. It also shows your area getting some snow. The 12z FV3 continues to show a wintery mix for areas farther east; and now the 12z GFS is starting to show something.

Bets still on the euro and now the ICON. Main reason is time of year (climatology). Still very reasonable to get mountain snows; whereas other areas it's very rare.    

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23 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

The 12z ICON has joined the euro on showing a significant elevation (mountains/foothills) winter storm. It also shows your area getting some snow. The 12z FV3 continues to show a wintery mix for areas farther east; and now the 12z GFS is starting to show something.

Bets still on the euro and now the ICON. Main reason is time of year (climatology). Still very reasonable to get mountain snows; whereas other areas it's very rare.    

Yeah, look at the classic LP placement on the 12Z ICON:

c3sCUQ8.png

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Man the 18z GFS is close to something big. Knowing our luck, we'll get the perfect setup but nothing wintery (like the November storm). Just too late in the year. 

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