Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    kgottwald
    Newest Member
    kgottwald
    Joined
Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

Recommended Posts

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

Plenty of time for things to get better or worse with next week's threat, but this is reminding me of how the December storm evolved on the models. We also had a high near 70 here  about a week before that storm, just like today.

We had a much better pattern in December than we do now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

We had a much better pattern in December than we do now.

Not sure we really had a good pattern at all before that storm. It was early December, and 70 degrees here just a week before I got 10 inches of snow. I wouldn't call that a blockbuster patter and time climate wise for a big storm here, but it happened.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Not sure we really had a good pattern at all before that storm. It was early December, and 70 degrees here just a week before I got 10 inches of snow. I wouldn't call that a blockbuster patter and time climate wise for a big storm here, but it happened.

The fact that we had a 70 degree day in early December doesn't really indicate that the pattern for the storm was worse. We had much stronger confluence over SE Canada and the NE US and the HP center was much further south and stayed longer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

At this point I will (personally) lean towards the FV3-GFS over the old GFS. I'm pulling for the old GFS, but the FV3 did very well with the last storm. Not sure if I would tie it with the euro (yet) but there may be the day in the near future where the FV3 is crowned King.   

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

I do remember our December storm some wee calling clown maps but much of the storm verified. 

With as much moisture we are getting lately if you add cold air into the mix and our peak winter time this could be an historic winter coming. 

Funny you say that i was telling my wife the same thing this morning we've had right at 100 inches of precip in Mcdowell county this year all time record all we need is some cold air for some record snow. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

At this point I will (personally) lean towards the FV3-GFS over the old GFS. I'm pulling for the old GFS, but the FV3 did very well with the last storm. Not sure if I would tie it with the euro (yet) but there may be the day in the near future where the FV3 is crowned King.   

This will be a good test for it. Right now (18z) it shows an apps runner while the 12z Euro shows a miller A. Will the Euro cave?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

This will be a good test for it. Right now (18z) it shows an apps runner while the 12z Euro shows a miller A. Will the Euro cave?

Nope. Its all about  the position of the HP up  to our NE. How the timing shakes out effects the press of the flow, and in turn will determine the ns vort, potential for phase etc. Models should get a good handle on 5h here in a cycle or two. Right now euro has more modeling in its corner than fv3. But lets see what euro and eps does at 0z tonight and 12z tommorow.  Watch the position and timing of the HP . Biggest factor to getting frozen verse unfrozen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In the old days, the GFS suite would typically be on the suppressed side with storms in the medium range, and the Euro would be more likely to throw out some amped up model runs.  In recent years, the 2 have flipped with the Euro tending to be more suppressed and the GFS throwing out some amped runs.  Don't know what will happen here in the end, but I'm just saying that the GFS is more likely to throw out amped and north model runs in the medium range compared to the Euro nowadays.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Will the 18Z cave?  Just asking

Were still a week out. May be another December 8th storm. 

Let's all hope the Euro has a better handle on things. If it holds serve over the next 24 hours, I will say that it's solution is believable. Right now, the GFSfv 500mb depiction (trough too far east) would suggest a wedge/damming event, meaning more of a freezing rain/sleet type of event. I would like to see that work itself out in the next several runs. If this is going to be a major snow event, we will more than likely know in the next couple of days. Once we are within 72 hours, the chances of big swings are drastically reduced. Right now we hug the Euro....

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

At this point I will (personally) lean towards the FV3-GFS over the old GFS. I'm pulling for the old GFS, but the FV3 did very well with the last storm. Not sure if I would tie it with the euro (yet) but there may be the day in the near future where the FV3 is crowned King.   

I don't know about that. Apparently it is not doing so well. It nailed the December storm, but overall is worse than the old GFS from reading the Mid Atlantic board.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

I don't know about that. Apparently it is not doing so well. It nailed the December storm, but overall is worse than the old GFS from reading the Mid Atlantic board.

Their opinions are mixed.  I don't think I have seen anyone say it was actually worse.  Some have shown pointed to correlation plots showing little to no improvement.  There is at least one poster (psuhoffman) who really seems to know what he is talking about, who believes that it has shown notable improvement in some aspects, but astill lags the euro.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It definitely won’t be as west as the FV3 for sure. Whether it’s right is another issue. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

It’s possible this is another impressive GFS run. 

I think it’s going to be a snow/ice/snow run but we’ll see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

I think it’s going to be a snow/ice/snow run but we’ll see.

It's a little more suppressive at 500mb, but it's throwing a new, strong vort max / short wave down into the Great Lakes which is disrupting the cold inflow from the sfc high up north (more Ohio Valley low influence)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, griteater said:

It's a little more suppressive at 500mb, but it's throwing a new, strong vort max / short wave down into the Great Lakes which is disrupting the cold inflow from the sfc high up north (more Ohio Valley low influence)

Yup, snow to ice to rain. Nothing on the backside this run. 

Honestly, I’m more concerned with what the UK and EC has than either GFS.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GLL ruins this run.  Hiccup hopefully . Way to early to tell. Noticing more an more qpf every run. Not least bit suprised there and betting the streak, id say .5 -1.0  qpf is easilly doable. Just need our HP positioned right and no GLL.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 0z euro held steady with snow (light mainly) for CLT to RDU and points north and west 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6z GFS is an apps runner still - looks like the northern stream energy drags the whole system north with a big phase over New York into New England

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The overnight runs took a step back. The FV3-GFS did show more ice potential on the 6z run; maybe starting to show more CAD influence. 

Also not sure if this still occurs, but until recently the models would tend to lose (or miss-interpret) storms around the day 5/4 mark (not sure why). Today into tomorrow, look to see if the models jump to another depiction (hopefully back to a snowier solution). 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Like I said above, we're going to have to keep an eye on how this evolves. The FV3 just barrows the low up the Apps. I could see this ending up a miller B (with CAD holding strong) with a transfer to the coast. 

 

aaaa.jpg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, CaryWx said:

LP's coming in too far north. Needs to be hugging the GC.

For a miller B, we just don't want the low to get higher then Tennessee; then transfer SE to the South Carolina coast. We of course need a strong CAD to force this situation.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×