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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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10 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Who will be the first one to Get suckered in by the hour 366 GFS? Wait I just posted so that’s me. I will never learn to stop looking at fantasy snow. It’s the only kind I get 

The GFS has been so off lately, I wouldn't trust any storm unless it was coming tomorrow. Look how bad it's handled this weekends rain.

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1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Hey Grit, what was the set up for the 73 surface map? A CAD, Miller A, or a rare "perfect storm" of conditions?

Feb 1973 - Miller A for sure, with big, sprawling high to the NW.  Not much of CAD signature.  Feb 2010 SC storm was similar, but didn't even have a strong high to the N or NW - just a super suppressed storm track under a big -NAO

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That's a pretty tight rainfall gradient!
Brad Panovich Meteorologist
· There will be some serious rain across the South Carolina into parts of North Carolina over the next few days. The farther south you are the higher the totals. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx
80779274_3398564986882600_3472685585158635520_n.png?_nc_cat=106&_nc_ohc=VaK8dp9ijAYAQmM40iq0jfNZPqVT1HNkIwXNpztCRd_3UWPrNfFeLlEig&_nc_ht=scontent-iad3-1.xx&oh=73be1d89b31149480b2b526cdb1059db&oe=5E7925CF     31
Oh what could have been...

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2 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Oh what could have been...

Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk
 

Just keep the moisture flowing and eventually we’ll score, right? That’s how we did it up in NYC when I lived there...

I know I’m setting myself up for weenie suicide ‘round these parts.

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The question I'm getting from many of my friends/family is what's the weather going to be for Christmas. Last couple of days I've been telling them sunny with a high ~60. I may have to change that; RAH mentioned that a backdoor cold front may get pushed southward into the SE. Right now they're not sure how far south it will get (if it pushes southward). Some of the latest models are also interesting. Looking at RDU -- The GFS is the warmest with temps in the upper 50s at mid day. The euro and Canadian has temps in the low/mid 50s. And finally the NAM has temps in the upper 30s and low 40s through central NC. That would be a surprise change.

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3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

12z NAM continues to show the backdoor cold front for Christmas. The NE to SW approach would put areas in central NC northeastward in the coolest air. RDU would have a high of ~40.  

Most forecasts I'm seeing are for 60s though. Any outlet putting stock in this?

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12z GFS and Canadian have cooled (..backdoor cold front) for highs on Christmas day. Lots of low/mid 50s for highs. But they're still not close to the NAMs 30s/40s for central NC. At this point I would lean towards 50s for highs (goes with RAH thoughts). But it will be interesting to see if the models show cooler temps in the next few runs.  

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1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said:

Why Is anyone looking at any op model at day 7 let alone day 13???? That's why they have ensembles.

I think it would be fascinating to somehow quantify how data access and availability changes our perception about weather. I'm sure if the Euro and other models went out to 384 hrs like the GFS does, it would be just as bad.

At the same time, the fact that OP models are mostly free and easy to access makes it so that more people can see them and more easily take the extremes they may bring seriously, particularly when it comes to the GFS. Tropical Tidbits and similar sites make shiny and fun maps so easy to come by in the long range that it can cloud our perceptions. Pivotal recently made more ECMWF data free, but most data from it and all the ensembles are behind pay walls. 

If it were the other way around and the Euro/the full range of the EPS, GEFS, etc. were free and easily accessed, I would be willing to bet we'd have different conversations on this site.

That's not to criticize the data being behind paywalls, people deserve to make money, but since that's the reality, it limits the conversations most of us can have (aside from screenshots from some generous posters in this thread) to long range GFS OP runs.

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