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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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Not sure about this one. I'll put my hopes on it, but not my money. It's going to take a perfect setup and strength of the low. One nice thing, if it strengthens as the GFS depicts (especially from 0z last night) there would be a good source of cold air to get pulled in. But that's the key, get pulled in; again we'll need this low to be perfectly placed (to our SE) and strong (..bombing off the coast).  

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I keep thinking this is another GFS amped system (similar to the last event). I suppose it good the other models show the storm (..much weaker). As others have said, the euro is close.   

 

RAH:

The forecast for next weekend remains uncertain as there have been inconsistencies from run to run of the ECMWF and GFS as well as their respective ensemble counterparts. GFS and GEFS solutions have been depicting a very deep upper trough and associated surface low moving through the Southeast. EC and ECENS have maintained a similar idea but much less intense. Today`s 00Z ECMWF is depicting an even weaker upper trough than before, but does continue the idea of weak coastal cyclogenesis off the South Carolina coast. This solution would bring some rain to the area Saturday and Sunday but nothing significant. NBM PoPs during this period are near climo and until a more clear consensus can be reached, sticking with its low impact forecast for next weekend with slight chances of rain and above freezing temperatures seems like the best approach.

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GFS with an OK but not great run. The ULL is encouraging. The red flag here was the overall strength of the ULL coming in- about 6dm higher At the ULL core than previous runs. I will continue to bang this drum until we get to mesoscale models- more convective feedback issues here- check out the MCS that goes from Miami to Bermuda in the span of 24 hours. That’s a feature that both impacts the behavior of the entire system and probably won’t happen.

No reason to abandon ship here but some colder runs would be nice.

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12 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Well, GFS up to its old tricks of showing a storm but losing the battle with the UKMET and ECMWF. Fun times. Marginal cold equals rain 99% of the time.

Don't agree with that assessment of GFS vs. UKMET/ ECMWF. 

The GFS continues to be much more robust with the 500mb feature than the Euro. There's just much more vorticity/ energy in the GFS version of the feature than on other models.

The GFS ends up closing that off and tracking it in a slightly different fashion each run, but the theme of the disturbance being much more potent on the GFS continues. 

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8 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

GFS with an OK but not great run. The ULL is encouraging. The red flag here was the overall strength of the ULL coming in- about 6dm higher At the ULL core than previous runs. I will continue to bang this drum until we get to mesoscale models- more convective feedback issues here- check out the MCS that goes from Miami to Bermuda in the span of 24 hours. That’s a feature that both impacts the behavior of the entire system and probably won’t happen.

No reason to abandon ship here but some colder runs would be nice.

Yes I concur with this as well. That is a very odd progression of the way a LP would behave and convective feedback has been an issue with a rapidly deepening storm such as this one. 

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