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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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I don't trust the Euro being bone dry.  Like was said above, the pattern is active.  I know you can still get waves suppressed, but it's like it doesn't have anything there to get suppressed.  The southern stream is strong, and I suspect the energy that will be there will be stronger than the Euro is seeing right now.  OTOH, the GFS's and the CMC's timing is off, the GFS moreso.  Speed the northern stream up on the CMC a bit, and you got something.

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40 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I don't trust the Euro being bone dry.  Like was said above, the pattern is active.  I know you can still get waves suppressed, but it's like it doesn't have anything there to get suppressed.  The southern stream is strong, and I suspect the energy that will be there will be stronger than the Euro is seeing right now.  OTOH, the GFS's and the CMC's timing is off, the GFS moreso.  Speed the northern stream up on the CMC a bit, and you got something.

Some have alluded to the fact that h5 on euro has had some pretty noticeable and significant changes to where some expect fireworks with the euro as the main players move into the right position. I dont believe it either. Do I entrust my faith fully in the GFS? Hell no but within the next 2-3 days we should get a better idea. 

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While the GEFS has backed off a little with it's setup for Dec 20-21, the EPS has gradually improved.  Here at day 8, it has a nice, sprawling, closed 500mb low over SE Canada (1st image) with surface high pressure behind it, north of the Great Lakes (2nd image).  The potential southern stream wave is in W Texas - though it is low amplitude over the southeast due to the suppressed height field along the east coast.  Needs some work, but a decent look here.

The most important piece here is getting the consolidated closed low over SE Canada in place.

oiGu1LL.png

VllLqpa.png

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Suppression is important at this juncture, however, I will take everything with a grain of salt. Up until we are in a 5 day forecast period and have solid agreement amongst models, I just can't buy into anything they are spitting out. Not trying to be a "debbie downer" but there is just so much that can go wrong. We are in the south and rarely do see any big snows before Christmas. Trust me, I want snow as much as anyone on this forum, but I've been screwed far too many times. 

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15 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

this is beautiful.  We need to start seeing some serious clown map action soon.  Come on man!

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_38.png

Nice to see you post man. Honestly a look like that it doesn't get much better. Love the banana highs along with blocking and tanking NAO. Regardless of what surface maps show is irrelevant. This look is going to produce fireworks if it keeps up with an active STJ. The STJ has been ripe all middle to late fall. All we need is the cold and blocking now and someone is going to get whacked. 

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Just now, HKY1894 said:

This map is classic look for an east coast winter storm. Ridge axis out west could move to the west a little maybe.

gfs_z500a_namer_35.png

Definitely  a classic look , I was watching that bowling ball move across the country as the GFS hrs was rolling in... check out that High Pressure position in Canada as well..

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The HP gets all the way up to 1044 on that run! Just the slightest nudge south with the cold is all I'd need. That run brought back terrible memories of last December's storm. 14+ inches just across the line in NC while I sat at home just 15 miles to the SW with a sloppy wet 3 inches that by the time it stopped raining was basically gone. 

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36 minutes ago, JoshM said:

0z Euro is eerily quiet again next week.

There's actually something there this time though. It just gets super suppressed, similar to the CMC, it's halfway to Cuba. It's quite warm on that run though, which is odd given the suppression. Has pretty much the whole continent above normal by day 10.

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