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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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Outside of the occasional 1-2 day cold shot, could it be another Death Ridge for the win??  One more week of nothingburger means we are into January and crossing our fingers we nail something down in the 10 week period to mid March.  The line to the cliff begins now.



Maybe I’m a little late to my response(got busy) but to give up on winter, when technically, it’s not officially winter... is just not something I would ever want to hear any professional met say. It’s like good olé Glenn forecasting a crippling ice storm for Atlanta. It’s premature. 10 weeks is a long time. You yourself have had some decent snow and ice events during these last few years. A lot of us haven’t. Cliff diving isn’t warranted (yet).


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To note for Wow and Grits posts we need the TPV to not elongate along the Canadian border and consolidate the bowling ball of 50/50 blocking up un eastern Canada otherwise it's a torch instead of a HECS. Not asking for a lot but with the law of physics I dont think anyone really knows the answer until we are at least 7 days in as to what H5 may actually look like. 12z GFS really showed us what COULD happen if the stars align while Euro shows what our doom and gloom has been this early in the season for years on end. Both models are about as far as you can get for polar opposites. Euro basically feeds a western trough with east coast ridging and the GFS feeds the TPV into the 50/50 while also having a banana high type structure and producing a textbook miller A for us. 

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15 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

00z RGEM I think has about 10 hours of ZR in my area. Mess or No it's about temps, 28-29 vs 31-32 BIG difference when you talking ZR.

Not saying it's not right , but I've seen the RGEM do this... and it be way off... Personally , I believe the RGEM is to cold with to much ZR

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11 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

GFS still shows "some type of storm" on the 21st...  seems to trend more toward a disorganized mess.  The ECMWF doesn't show anything for that timeframe really.

Very weird evolution where the low is super "jumpy" I still believe it's a threat tho. Need that stout HP to help the storm say suppressed compared to what the storms have been doing lately. 

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9 hours ago, griteater said:

Moving ahead 10 days (lol)....wow at this 00z run of the GFS...just a textbook 500mb evolution and Miller A snowstorm...split flow wave enters the U.S. in Baja and treks due east, wow

Doesn't seem like the GEFS supports it very much though.  Very broad brush statement I know and the pattern is a better read than clown maps, but I'd think for a good pattern you'd see an uptick in the snowfall mean on the ensembles.  

I love seeing that progression though, we haven't seen a nice Miller A storm even modeled for us in I can't remember...

 

snod.conus.png

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Doesn't seem like the GEFS supports it very much though.  Very broad brush statement I know and the pattern is a better read than clown maps, but I'd think for a good pattern you'd see an uptick in the snowfall mean on the ensembles.  
I love seeing that progression though, we haven't seen a nice Miller A storm even modeled for us in I can't remember...
 
snod.conus.png&key=5f916776156d47bbeb1dd960cabc2f89d494fc9b0e026727cf72f24f9dbcca92
I say we need to be in 5 days (Monday) to really have a handle. I mean, last night got colder than BOTH the GFS and EURO had called for (it was 33 at 5am), so we are all in a "wait and see" phase until we can sample. Another factor is the AO/NAO going negative in lockstep... Basically the Browns have a better percentage to make the playoffs this year than the percentage of any one run being good right now due to it flip/flopping

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I like the fact that we are not seeing the prospects of an unending torch or stranded in the wasteland of a bad pattern that takes weeks to get out of.  I'm not too excited for the 21st period right now, but we're in a pattern for the foreseeable future where a storm can pop up quickly.  Timing will be key, as usual.  But with the possibilities of real blocking forming down the line, we might be on the cusp of a really good window for big winter weather near or just after the flip of the calendar.  Sure has a different feel from Decembers in recent memory.

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