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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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Hey look I am in the 44" to 48" range or is that a .01 near the 37?  Not bad for an Apps Runner.  Hope that's a high ratio and not a 6:1 or we are in trouble lol.  
Good thing it includes sleet and ZR, with a 10:1 ratio... If it was 6:1, everybody here will be having New Years in the dark

Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk

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4 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

I think there's a definite shot at seeing some sleet/snow mix in with the end of the precip from Durham west on 40 tomorrow morning.

This just in! Good call on the possibility of some flakes!!!!   Not buying the Up to 1 inch, but maybe some mix!!!

.TONIGHT...Rain. Snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation up
to 1 inch. Lows in the lower 30s. Northwest winds around 10 mph
with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation near
100 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. A chance of snow and rain in the
morning. Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 40s.
Light and variable winds. Gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
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1 hour ago, Wow said:

I think the time period beginning 10-12 days from now has some promise

Nice to see you post. Speaks on the potential. Takes a near perfect track for the northern viewing area. Low tracks from Columbia to Richmond. Near perfect track climitologically speaking for a massive snow storm for I40 north coupled with a HP anchored up around the Toronto area supplying us some fresh cold air from Canadian origins. God I hope that comes to fruition. I always feel like these long range precursors from multiple model suites have some type of legitimacy behind them and signal that some of the biggest storms for the area have a rhyme and reason behind them.

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6 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Hey look I am in the 44" to 48" range or is that a .01 near the 37?  Not bad for an Apps Runner.  Hope that's a high ratio and not a 6:1 or we are in trouble lol.  

LOL. That map is so ridiculous. Not only that, but any time a map shows GSP being the snowfall bullseye FOR THE ENTIRE NATION, you know it's total BS right off the bat! 

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I still like the setup the GFS shows in 9-10 days... 50/50 low and rather robust wave trekking across the south.  Verbatim it's too warm  but if that 50/50 low can trend a bit stronger to build in the HP we'd be in business.  Euro, while not showing this exact storm, does show lower height field off Newfoundland and Greenland blocking.  Getting that upper low there is key to bring down the cold.  The STJ is full throttle so just like last winter, we are not in need of bring in the precip.

Fz6dn4A.png

 

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^ Yeah guys, the GEFS at 500mb shows some nice features here.  Ideally for a colder and more suppressed setup for us, the 'inflection point' or transition between the negative anomalies over SE Canada and the positive anomalies over Greenland and Davis Strait would be closer to the U.S., but it's still pretty good here overall, and it's the type of setup that could trend south and colder over time due to the block (unlike the setup for our storm tomorrow).

3lDy9tO.gif

 

Here's the storm traversing the south with the freezing lines on the ensemble mean draped thru parts of TN and NC

g8IFmjU.gif

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The setup the week of the 20th is certainly intriguing. A lot of moving pieces but I do especially like the blocking showing up, as outlined above, and the NAO going from strongly positive to neutral (or perhaps negative). The southern storm track from the GFS isn't bad, just need cold air transport. I think there is potential.

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Well this forecaster at the CPC certainly is a :grinch:.  We shall see I guess.  

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

"For those celebrating the Christmas holiday, travel conditions should be favorable, with the likelihood of a major winter storm looking minimal for most of the central and eastern U.S and the influx of moisture starting to wane in the west. Those dreaming of a white Christmas are likely to be sorely disappointed; temperatures over the eastern two-thirds of the contiguous U.S. are forecast to be anomalously warm."

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11 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Well this forecaster at the CPC certainly is a :grinch:.  We shall see I guess.  

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

"For those celebrating the Christmas holiday, travel conditions should be favorable, with the likelihood of a major winter storm looking minimal for most of the central and eastern U.S and the influx of moisture starting to wane in the west. Those dreaming of a white Christmas are likely to be sorely disappointed; temperatures over the eastern two-thirds of the contiguous U.S. are forecast to be anomalously warm."

LOL

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The GEFS is trending nicely (including the 18z run).  However, the EPS and CMC Ens aren't dropping all of the closed upper low over North Central Canada down into SE Canada, and not showing nearly as nice of a Davis Strait block & 50/50 low couplet...so that needs to change.  I did see that the EPS Control run was quite suppressed and cold along the east coast.

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