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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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20 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

wow, this isn't like the old days, I keep looking to see what the future may look like from the computers but no one is chiming in with anything, even if its eye candy some discussion is better than none.  :snowing:

:ee:

I think we're all just being cautious and denying ourselves any excitement. "Wolf" has been cried too many times and the models have been too unreliable beyond a couple of days. We pretty much have to wait until cold is happening and snow is falling to have any confidence these days (unless you're over 3000 ft). :lol:

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Going to be a rough weekend on the coast...

A powerful storm system will take shape off the Carolina Coast this weekend, bringing a variety of significant coastal impacts, including major coastal flooding, beach erosion, and strong winds.
https://www.weather.gov/media/mhx/LatestBriefing.pdf

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2 hours ago, Solak said:

Going to be a rough weekend on the coast...

A powerful storm system will take shape off the Carolina Coast this weekend, bringing a variety of significant coastal impacts, including major coastal flooding, beach erosion, and strong winds.
https://www.weather.gov/media/mhx/LatestBriefing.pdf

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They are predicting wind gusts in excess of 40 mph Saturday and Saturday night.

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It's 2 weeks until Thanksgiving. So what is a good way to do a long range guess at the weather around the Holiday? Answer: MJO. Both the Euro and GFS ensembles have the MJO going into Phase 8 by the 27th-28th. That usually means colder than normal temps for the Mid Atlantic.
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2 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:
GEFS is going full steam ahead for big cold again towards the end of November. This is likely in part driven by MJO propagation into colder phases 8-1-2. Some of our top tropical analogs support the GEFS idea. Better get used to the cold. #Energy #NatGas
 
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I was thinking that pink and green must be some BIG TIME cold until I saw the scale; green is only -3 c :lol:

Still, I'll take below normal anyway and anytime I can get it!:weenie:

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13 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I would generally trust the NAM with this sort of scenario but I can’t find anything similar on any other model 

3K not nearly as impressed.  The WRF ARW2 (as if the ARW1 isn't bad enough, so they needed a second one) is similar to the 12k NAM.  The GFS, CMC, RGEM, HRDPS, etc. are all out on this one.

Good thing is, if the latest LR data is right, we'll probably be able to legit start tracking stuff in a couple of weeks.

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8 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Looks like the 12z Ukie is bringing that cutoff energy in the SW through here around day  6.

Low right through the upstate of SC with good rain totals,0z Euro cuts the low through Ohio with rain as well.

Hi nc. Will you do your mjo updates and where it currently is and where it going? You are very knowledgeable on that.

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11 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Looks like the 12z Ukie is bringing that cutoff energy in the SW through here around day  6.

Low right through the upstate of SC with good rain totals,0z Euro cuts the low through Ohio with rain as well.

I've been noticing a potential system on the variations of models. Details not set in stone for sure.

Wouldn't rule out a southern slider being one solution. 

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Could be headed for our second below average November.  The November average at KGSP is 52.4 degress F.  November 2018 had an average of 47.8 degrees.  So far in 2019, we are averaging 47.7.  BTW... the record November low at KGSP is 11 degrees set on consecutive days in 1950.  The lowest monthly average was 43.2 in 1901. 

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=gsp

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21 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Am I reading things wrong or is there a little torch near/after Thanksgiving, then cold beginning that weekend? 

Looks like there would be some stout ridging ahead of a really deep trough that tries to push in some arctic air.  The push doesn't look as strong as it did a couple runs ago, so need to keep watching.  

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On 11/19/2019 at 9:54 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Ha...Now that winter kinda looked like what we had in 2015-15: Extreme blowtorch and a Christmas in the upper 60s/low 70s...and then an epic Blizzard in January. (That's why I was kinda excited when I saw that record because I wondered if the 70 degree Christmas in a strong niño correlation was gonna hold true again--because it also happened in 1982-83!)

feb 83 all of 77/78 good years to be a kidl. 10 yr old me remembers cnj thundersnow in feb 83

 

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6 hours ago, LurkerBoy said:

Am I reading things wrong or is there a little torch near/after Thanksgiving, then cold beginning that weekend? 

Looks pretty boring for the next two weeks. Warming up over the week one period, that cooling but no cold. Too much rain showing up in my two week and not a single freeze. :thumbsdown:Hoping for a better pattern after mid Dec...

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