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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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RAH:

Thursday through Saturday: Models are starting to come into better 
agreement with the late week system. Timing and magnitude 
differences with the passage of a northern stream trough and the 
next Arctic front into the Eastern US has lessen with the latest 
12z/03 model runs, with the GFS trending towards the slower 
ECMWF/CMC solution(well known GFS cold bias). However, model spread 
remains high with the eastward evolution of a southern stream 
impulse crossing the SE US Thursday night through Friday. 
Stronger/slower model solutions, like the GFS, develop an area of 
low pressure along the trailing end of the aforementioned Arctic 
front as these features intersect over the SE US, resulting in the 
development of a widespread significant rainfall event(1 to 2 
inches) across the Carolinas. The probability of seeing any p-type 
other than rain eastern of the NC mountains is extremely low with no 
creditable threat for snow at this time. Have raised PoPs to high 
chance for Thursday night and into Friday with a cold and wet day 
expected on Friday. 
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23 hours ago, Solak said:

RAH:


Thursday through Saturday: Models are starting to come into better 
agreement with the late week system. Timing and magnitude 
differences with the passage of a northern stream trough and the 
next Arctic front into the Eastern US has lessen with the latest 
12z/03 model runs, with the GFS trending towards the slower 
ECMWF/CMC solution(well known GFS cold bias). However, model spread 
remains high with the eastward evolution of a southern stream 
impulse crossing the SE US Thursday night through Friday. 
Stronger/slower model solutions, like the GFS, develop an area of 
low pressure along the trailing end of the aforementioned Arctic 
front as these features intersect over the SE US, resulting in the 
development of a widespread significant rainfall event(1 to 2 
inches) across the Carolinas. The probability of seeing any p-type 
other than rain eastern of the NC mountains is extremely low with no 
creditable threat for snow at this time. Have raised PoPs to high 
chance for Thursday night and into Friday with a cold and wet day 
expected on Friday. 

The 1-2 inches widespread significant rainfall mentioned above is now...

While the cold front may lack widespread precipitation with it, it 
will not lack for cold air. 
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