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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Looks "spooky" dry from Triangle east through the end of all model runs. Quite the difference from the western half of the Carolinas to the eastern side in terms of modeled precip

So far it looks good (model wise). Most show heaviest precip starting ~ or after mid-night. (but)RAH has "Likely" category for precip starting at 8pm for my grid location.   

My two youngest kids still trick or treat so I'm really hoping it holds off as the models currently show.  

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On 10/23/2019 at 3:47 PM, mackerel_sky said:

GFS sucks nuts! My 4 inches of rain is now down to sprinkles this weekend! Droughtbuster

Can't wait for this front to get here, currently 71, while its 30s in NW MS.

Unfortunately,  it looks like it's going to lose a lot of punch for areas east of apps, not nearly as cold of a forecast for this side.

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1 hour ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Can't wait for this front to get here, currently 71, while its 30s in NW MS.

Unfortunately,  it looks like it's going to lose a lot of punch for areas east of apps, not nearly as cold of a forecast for this side.

Yeah cold air really has a hard time getting over the Apps.

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59 minutes ago, yotaman said:

That would be pretty epic for November so I doubt it will verify.

It will probably get cold. Add 10 degrees to the 18z GFS and we'd still be talking record temps. I would think 40s highs with lows in the 20s would be a great guess at this point. **folks have been talking about the GFS cold bias in the LR. 

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The 6z GFS continues to show the potential wintery event. I think it's possible, but (of course) there are many factors not in the favor of a good winter storm. One key thing to tract in the coming days (if we're tracking), is how fast we can get the lower dew points to push into the CAD regions. Right now, I don't think it's enough. Dew points in the teens get into N VA but only get down into the upper 20s (at best) down into N NC. My thoughts, if this was to materialize as shown on the GFS we would probably get some mixed snow/sleet with the rain. And then if it did switch over it would really have a hard time accumulating. **it would be a typical (rare) November winter event outside the mountains.  

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Let it be noted that Josh M is the owner of the first official "BOOM!" of the 2019/2020 winter season.  Marking Nov 3rd as the date.

Congrats Josh!  You now own the winter.  Its on you friend!  Only JBurns can remove that curse from you but he wont until he receives at least 1 Big Dog and snow Christmas Eve.  So get busy.  :P:snowing: 

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