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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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18 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

That’s awesome.  Will we finally be able to get one stick around till the100 hour mark?

Yeah until this year, a storm showing at this range would really peak the interest. We've even created storm threads for day 7 storms. But this year, I'm not sure when to take storm threats seriously.   

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

Yeah until this year, a storm showing at this range would really peak the interest. We've even created storm threads for day 7 storms. But this year, I'm not sure when to take storm threats seriously.   

12 hours still might be a bit early, but it would probably be at least within the window of appropriate lead time for a thread this year.

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From RAH:

The next wx system will come during the first half of next week. It`s an interesting system with models depicting a closed H5 low dropping SEWD from the Central Plains to across the Carolinas. Thermo profiles would suggest perhaps a late-season p-type concern across the Piedmont, but given that this system is so late in the forecast period, inevitably the details will change below now and then. Will continue to monitor model trends, and for now will show increasing PoPs during this time.

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Folks, I wouldn't "Give-up" on *Winter* until the Wilmington, Azalea Festival, As long  as  I've resided in the SENC.   Always We get very cold, or Wintery Weather, (Sleet or Ice),  by that Date. April 3rd~7th..   As long as I've lived here @ the Beach, oh, about the last 50 years..  (Very few "Warm" Festival(s) during My time residing here)...

That said,,  What @jjwxman, posted, "could" trend colder..  ;) In Our Favor.. 

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6z GFS has backed off some but still shows frozen precip over northeastern NC into SE VA. The FV3 has less but is showing more potential then previous runs.

My take looking at the current models, we could see some change over to snow for north-central NC eastwards into the north-central coastal plain then up into SE VA. But I wouldn't expect much accumulations.  

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