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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

You know... For this to be such a "arctic blast" it is really not that cold at all. 40 here and pretty nice out really even here in Virginia. SE Ridge FTW! 

I think you can add the mountains into the factor. 10+ degrees colder on the west side.

As stated before, the mountain can help us with CAD or hurt us by impeding cold dense air over the mountains. 

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23 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

You know... For this to be such a "arctic blast" it is really not that cold at all. 40 here and pretty nice out really even here in Virginia. SE Ridge FTW! 

It's currently 11° here.   It's cold but it's nothing like last January's cold.  We hit -9° a few times. 

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12z gfsFV3 adds to the noise starting Feb 8-9. One overuning event after another. Has front to our west runing sw to ne but gets it sagged and by feb 10 on has moisture coming and going across se, overruning with one hp after another sliding across ne. See ice down in south GA one day.  So starting Feb 8 onward to atleast Feb 15 is a golden opportunity.  Really curious to how the front that passes through feb 8-9  decides to set up shop and its orientation. 

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30 minutes ago, rowjimmy73 said:

yea this is where since i live in danville i'll call him the obvious troll, winds are howling outside and in no way shape or form does it feel "nice" 

Its really not that bad, I am from the mountains unlike you Flat landers I can handle a little wind and cold.. the heat is another story.

 

The 2014 cold blast was much worse, and a few years ago it got below zero here with snowpack. 

Yes this is a very impressive arctic blast for the midwest and some of the Northeast but definitely a glancing blow here.. Highs here arent even forecasted to stay below freezing during any of it. 

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EPS saying JB is a prophet post Feb 8th onward. "Delayed but not Denied. "  "Harshest 30 day stretch of winter Mack has seen in his lifetime" on the way. Remember women and children first!

Say it ain’t so!  I read somewhere a couple days ago that JB was going to have a historic bust this winter?!! 

 

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2 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

gefs_snow_mean_nc_39.thumb.png.ff847539f63cd17a519025dde8ed830d.pnggefs_snow_mean_nc_65.thumb.png.16dde3a1708cb70c36f13c83dfa45968.png

I'm on the cutoff line again... Is it too much to ask?!?! Oh yeah that's right:

 

1)Never trust snow on models outside 48hrs... Even inside 48 always be skeptical

2)SER/WAA (warm nose) always prevails

3) CAE snow shield screws the entire state of SC, Savannah to Augusta, and from Charlotte through the triangle

 

 

#rantover

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Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

I'm on the cutoff line again... Is it too much to ask?!?! Oh yeah that's right:

 

1)Never trust snow on models outside 48hrs... Even inside 48 always be skeptical

2)SER/WAA (warm nose) always prevails

3) CAE snow shield screws the entire state of SC, Savannah to Augusta, and from Charlotte through the triangle

 

 

#rantover

That's because you're using this tool wrong. 

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16 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Say it ain’t so!  I read somewhere a couple days ago that JB was going to have a historic bust this winter?!! emoji3061.png

 

He might of been knocked down for a few days early next week, but hell be the one knocking em out when all is said and done. We are only 8 -16 days away before  Macks historic obs start rolling in throughout mid March.

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1 hour ago, NCSNOW said:

He might of been knocked down for a few days early next week, but hell be the one knocking em out when all is said and done. We are only 8 -16 days away before  Macks historic obs start rolling in throughout mid March.

The only thing Mack will be rolling out is a spreader with pre emergent. Lol

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1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

I'm on the cutoff line again... Is it too much to ask?!?! Oh yeah that's right:

1)Never trust snow on models outside 48hrs... Even inside 48 always be skeptical

2)SER/WAA (warm nose) always prevails

3) CAE snow shield screws the entire state of SC, Savannah to Augusta, and from Charlotte through the triangle

#rantover

Just so you know we can actually see how much these maps show for Orangeburg. We don't need you to post every time

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1 hour ago, NCSNOW said:

Hot off the press. The 18z FV3 is having a Big Mac Attack. Dumps 11.5 inches on Mac and Shettley Feb 9-10. Big snows all over Carolinas and back into GA. 

I still have problems accepting taking maps 2 weeks out even remotely seriously.  A few years ago you would have been tarred and feathered for even posting a single map that far out.  I also don't buy how much better the models have gotten as a reason. There hasn't been a single storm that I can remember where we knew three days out what was going to happen. Besides, at my age, you don't look too far ahead.  Hell, I don't even buy green bananas.

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