Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
 Share

Recommended Posts

4 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

Euro now close to warning criteria snow for the Triad and N&W areas of the triangle. 

The key seems to be some enhancement that comes through Louisiana and then through S MS/AL/GA that almost seems to slide south around the mountains. 

Thanks QC.  Are you referring to the Tues/Wed snow?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, CaryWx said:

Question for the board.   Does anyone really see any sustainable cold air coming in?  I see transient progressive stuff and not any real -nao. 

Will be fighting the calendar in about 3 weeks and running out of time. 

I think the cold that was expected to settle more in the northeast and impact us has set up over the upper Midwest and appears to stay that way a while.  Still time to settle down our way but time is running short and avg temps are headed north from here. 

TW

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Not sure temps would be good enough even if we do get the precip to work in on the Monday storm for the coastal plains.

Yeah, I’m as amateur as they come when it comes to knowing what I’m talking about but we would be heavily relying on wetbulb I think.  Need some heavy rates of precip to cool off the surface

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Not sure temps would be good enough even if we do get the precip to work in on the Monday storm for the coastal plains.

This is how it happens for us though.....hinted at in the long range, poorly modeled in the mid term then comes back in the 1-2 day range....still need some big changes in the models today, need it a bit cooler at the surface but honestly if we can get heavy enough precip we should do ok this far inland....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

06Z Rgem looks good temps in the mid 30's has the low much closer and moving more NNE has precip way further inland.....starting to think this could happen.....

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_54.thumb.png.054132b99e0916da8ecc80971edba23e.png

 

 

50-100 miles NW over two days.  When does that not happen? Lol. If I was in downeast, Shaggy, and weatherNc country, I’d be super excited!  Maybe even eastern Wake could end up picking up a sprinkle.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

50-100 miles NW over two days.  When does that not happen? Lol. If I was in downeast, Shaggy, and weatherNc country, I’d be super excited!  Maybe even eastern Wake could end up picking up a sprinkle.

I really think this may be an RDU-FAY special

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

50-100 miles NW over two days.  When does that not happen? Lol. If I was in downeast, Shaggy, and weatherNc country, I’d be super excited!  Maybe even eastern Wake could end up picking up a sprinkle.

Watch us get the coastal but miss out on boundary layer temps.  I just don’t see how it will be cold enough for anything but rain, height falls in whatever semblance of a conveyer are not sharp enough.

  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

Watch us get the coastal but miss out on boundary layer temps.  I just don’t see how it will be cold enough for anything but rain, height falls in whatever semblance of a conveyer are not sharp enough.

May get enough dynamic cooling.  I hate relying on that.  But we haven’t really had many opportunities this winter.  This one will be close.  I’m normally a cold first guy, but since we have to work with what we got, I’m all for getting the precip in here and rolling the dice.  Boundary temps look ugly, though...no arguing that.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

Watch us get the coastal but miss out on boundary layer temps.  I just don’t see how it will be cold enough for anything but rain, height falls in whatever semblance of a conveyer are not sharp enough.

Yeah the temps are not good enough but like CR says we need precip to even worry about any chance at all. Just sucks the euro and fv3 showed some good hits a few days ago and  now we may get the storm but be too warm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

Watch us get the coastal but miss out on boundary layer temps.  I just don’t see how it will be cold enough for anything but rain, height falls in whatever semblance of a conveyer are not sharp enough.

12Z nam sounding is close enough that I will take my chances and this is without better rates, what we need is this thing to shift west another 100 miles.....or amp up and get that NW precip shield growth...

nam_2019012612_054_35.57--77_29.thumb.png.12d26a2bd8114a31b35b29a240bc98bb.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Take a step back, so what features are present that would either block the LP up the coast (dont see anything) and draw it back with a phase? (Thought we gave up on that already?)  Something has to be there for the models to keep hinting at a coastal.  I'm certainly not a modelologist so I'll sit back and learn.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Take a step back, so what features are present that would either block the LP up the coast (dont see anything) and draw it back with a phase? (Thought we gave up on that already?)  Something has to be there for the models to keep hinting at a coastal.  I'm certainly not a modelologist so I'll sit back and learn.  

Look at your 500mb vorticity evolution preferably on a site like Nexlab where you can slide the panels back and forth.  There’s an 850 too, would like to see it more tucked in to the coast which means H5 needs to sharper and tune a little sooner.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Touchet said:

The system I am interested in is the one on Tuesday and Wednesday. I think northern and central Mississippi and Alabama May see a good amount of snow. Why is no one talking about this?

Most everyone here is only interested in the Carolinas, and to a lesser extent, North GA.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Wow unpinned and locked this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...