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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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Here was the Canadian at the same time today. Notice the isobars are a litllet flatter out in front coming across NC. Want them the sharpen up more SW to NE. The storm is wound up more/phased energy on the 18z Nam is whats causing this. If it can hook up phase eitheir quicker, futher north or stronger, then the trough orientation will change. 

 

500hv.conus.png

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The RDPS (which is the Short Range Canadian model and pretty good only goes out to 48. The pic above is the GDPS or Long Range Canadian Global. I wanted to post the Short range RDPS but Pivotal has the area we need to see botched out o figure. However I can make enough of it to see it looks probably as sexy as the 18z nam if not more. 

 

If this rabbit chase doesn't pan out. Good news is we have at least 2 more on its tale coming up mid week and next weekend.

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36 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:
Sunday, Feb the 3rd at 13:00 
— Main run: 7.1 in
— Ensemble mean:  0.1 in
Maximum:  2.6 in    90% Percentile:  0 in
Minimum:  0 in    10% Percentile:  0 in
 
All times are local time (EST)
Current run: 12z
 
Now you see? That ensemble mean shows no support. 

They don’t support the snow right now. But there is generally support for precipitation from a gulf system at that time. No reason to worry about anything else at this point. I just want to see a system showing up. 

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4 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Somebody please tell Cold Rain to lower the dang snow shields.

Falling snow is the only thing that impacts snow shield strength, unfortunately.  Also unfortunately, the 0z Nam did us no favors.  You usually get one Nam run that sucks you in with heavy qpf or favorable trends.  The 18z was probably it.  But then again, maybe the 6z bounces backs.  We’ll see. 

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