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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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8 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

This big switch by the Euro is not believable IMO. Had no ensemble support last night and little if any from the 12Z GEFS. When any model jumps around like that it is usually wrong. 

Aren’t most op models showing this to some degree? GFSv3, GFS,CMC, Euro? It’s not like Euro is on an island 

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59 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

This big switch by the Euro is not believable IMO. Had no ensemble support last night and little if any from the 12Z GEFS. When any model jumps around like that it is usually wrong. 

Since when did we believe the GFS?  Most i know shows the Euro outlook, i know Spann does even though he uses the GFS for reference mostly

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There is some ensemble support for a system at least being in the gulf during that time period. Some suppressed, some warm and wet, some without it, and a handful with snow. At this lead time I just want to see the general idea that there could be a system down there, that’s good enough for me. First place any of us even seen the Feb 1st system was on the EPS a couple days ago. 

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