Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
 Share

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Personally I think what screwed us most was the ENSO at the start of winter... went from a forecasted modiki/weak Nino to a weak moderate.  

If you go by the CPC classification we are not in an El Niño at all.  They’ve basically had it as neutral for 6 weeks now 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

Yep same old same old it's 7 or 8 days for snow then it's another 7or 8 days for snow then another, we're going to run out of winter if something doesn't pop soon.  I can't believe we've gone the whole month of January and not had a decent storm to follow, or I should say we've had a couple to follow but they go poof.  I would have bet money we would have a good snow storm at least one in January and now it's looking like thru February 8 is not looking good.

Don't worry, the mountain folks will get their snow in April :ee:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The NAM continues to show an ice potential for areas in NE Ga, up state,  and western NC. Even has some light ice at RDU.   

Most likely there will only be Advisors, but this could become very significant because of the cold road surfaces. .15" of freezing rain with the current cold temps would be much worse the .25 (or even higher) with warmer ground temps (like our last event).  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, calculus1 said:

Both, 12Z RGEM and 3KNAM both show freezing rain breaking out around midnight and lasting through 16Z in the immediate lee of the Apps.

Has higher totals there as well. Honestly if I was the NWS I would consider Winter Storm Watches. Cold surfaces with below freezing temps and occurring overnight. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, calculus1 said:

3K NAM high resolution forecast.  Looks like 0.15 at the most.  I'm not sure that qualifies for Winter Storm Watches, but the accretion should happen rather easily tonight due to the conditions you mentioned, Falls.

nQ5m7wM.png

Right at the base of the mountains there's > .25". Even down into SC there's spots of .20". The above map would be bad for the morning commute. Again, I think this could be a perfectly timed event that puts out minimal precip but causes maximum affect.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Southern Track said:

Thought it did too.  Curious what the FV3 shows.  Evidently it’s irrelevant from what I’ve read until the energy gets through the dumpster fire of the Pacific(Rex Block).

Right now it is only out to hr36, but that HP near Montana is a tick south and 1mb stronger compared to 6z

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

Still  think models are having problems. 

Look at this ice issue for tonight and tomorrow am. Not a word about it until last evening. 

That's why you wait 2-3 days to get excited about anything now days! Yea, its fun to track 7-10 days in advance...only to be disappointed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would rather the models be wishy washy with the storms etc, 9/10 times if the models consistently run a storm for MBY for days and days in a row especially in the 5-10 day range once we get inside 2-3 days it goes to hell......but if they don't pick up on it good till inside 5 days they tend to actually pan out much better.....I am pretty confident there will be several legit threats for many places in the SE after mid next week......

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

I would rather the models be wishy washy with the storms etc, 9/10 times if the models consistently run a storm for MBY for days and days in a row especially in the 5-10 day range once we get inside 2-3 days it goes to hell......but if they don't pick up on it good till inside 5 days they tend to actually pan out much better.....I am pretty confident there will be several legit threats for many places in the SE after mid next week......

I agree the models has been doing horrible with this pattern change. The data changes more frequently with abnormal patterns 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Wow unpinned and locked this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...