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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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36 minutes ago, griteater said:

Snow on the 00z FV3

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Some people have mentioned the Jan 2000 "Carolina Crusher" over the past few days while watching the evolution of this potential system. While it's way too premature to lock on to a storm like that, this particular output map looks a whole lot like that event. Not necessarily for totals, but eerily similar in terms of placement for haves and have nots. Check out that western cutoff; Jan 2000 yielded a trace or flurries to NW SC. 

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Man this is tough to get a handle on right now. GEFS looks good for N GA, but almost all the OP’s leave us dry. ICON would be snow here and in WNC if it could just get the moisture back up this way. At this range I want to lean on the ensembles, but seeing even the good OP runs consistently be late bloomers is disconcerting.

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Just now, SnowDawg said:

Man this is tough to get a handle on right now. GEFS looks good for N GA, but almost all the OP’s leave us dry. ICON would be snow here and in WNC if it could just get the moisture back up this way. At this range I want to lean on the ensembles, but seeing even the good OP runs consistently be late bloomers is disconcerting.

Stand your ground.... This is far from being written in stone. right now it's where you want it to be. Trust the ensembles more at this range. The op runs will be all over the place until 48 hours out.

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Verbatim, that is a strange snow map with half a foot in Mobile, AL and nothing in Atlanta. 

Imagine there will be a few big hits on the EPS when it rolls out here shortly... Still think the ensembles are the best thing to look at this far away. The trend towards a stronger wave seems to be clear right now. 

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7 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Some people have mentioned the Jan 2000 "Carolina Crusher" over the past few days while watching the evolution of this potential system. While it's way too premature to lock on to a storm like that, this particular output map looks a whole lot like that event. Not necessarily for totals, but eerily similar in terms of placement for haves and have nots. Check out that western cutoff; Jan 2000 yielded a trace or flurries to NW SC. 

As I am not native to Upstate SC, can someone please describe the 2000 Carolina Crusher scenario? Did the Greenville, SC area receive any significant snowfall? I could find online articles mentioning North Carolina totals only.

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