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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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The overall setup is pretty good for a northern stream system.  We get an arctic front to plow thru on Friday, then before there is time for a warm-up, the next wave dives into the trough fairly sharply.  A good version of this type of setup would be the storm from just a year ago in mid-Jan...i.e. a Saskatchewan Screamer that manages to be sharp enough where it actually draws up some warm advection and forcing for ascent to generate precip

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2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Canadian has the moisture. We get ice on that run and west 77 hammered. No doubt mid to late next weekend is the opportunity to score.

Hey buddy, go look at the 0z ICON... Only goes out to hr180 for end of run, but go forward in time after that and it will be a deep burier for my half of the board

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12 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

I wouldn't worry about the moisture. Every storm we have had this season has over-performed. This one will be no exception. It may be east of us or west of us, but it will not be dry.

Yeah, that's what you see with the various ensemble members....some west and well developed...some east and well developed.....some east and weaker

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Ensembles, ensembles, ensembles! I don’t care what any run of an OP does right now. Seeing support gathering around a specific date on many ensemble members is what I want to start seeing right now. Hoping 0z will keep up what 18z started on the GEFS.

Closest station to me at 12z vs. 18z. A lot more members started showing the goods around the 27th/28th

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1 minute ago, SnowDawg said:

Ensembles, ensembles, ensembles! I don’t care what any run of an OP does right now. Seeing support gathering around a specific date on many ensemble members is what I want to start seeing right now. Hoping 0z will keep up what 18z started on the GEFS.

Closest station to me at 12z vs. 18z. A lot more members started showing the goods around the 27th/28th

The 00z GEFS Mean is improved.  Here are the last 6 runs for next Monday...last image is the most recent run at 00z

1az3M2J.gif

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Yep. Ensemble means are definitely on the rise for several runs in a row now. Over 6 inches now in N GA mountains. So I think we’ve officially got something to track, that actually has ensemble support now. Obviously a week out everything under the sun can go wrong, but this is the first real threat of the pattern flip.

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