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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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Here's how this evoloution come to be on the 6z gfs. It started showing yesterday at H5. This southern energy gets left behind, separated from northern Stream at hour 120 you see this clearly on the 6z gfs. At 12z last night this trend had started , but not quite this much and the cold front didn't have a chance to get pushed through fast enough. Thus the surface low that spawns and rides up the front covered everything in VA in snow down to the state line. This morning Same thing happens, only we get just a little bit more separation as energy pinches off and the front is able to press down through NC enough before our surface low that spins up gets ejected deeper out of GOM and rides up the front.

 

6z gfs 120:

500hv.conus.png

 

AT 156: This is when its snowing good in NC, surface reflection is out in front. Notice NS coming down back side. I want open what goodies that could lead to. So the trend we are watching happens around hour 100-120 today on models. Need the energy to seperate on southern end and drop down.

 

500hv.conus.png

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10 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

Your spot on about today, even the mtns played catchup after the radar in TN lit up early this morning. This is a prime example, just like the crusher sneaking up on everyone, models have a hard time with spacing and timing Northern stream energy, espeacilly 3 + days out. Once the pattern becomes steady, like block getting situated,then theyll have higher skill most likely. You get a ns dominant pattern like well have more so post jan 25 and mix in active stj, it just scrambles everything more than it already is, making it tougher to calculate and draw the right conclusion. So buyer be ware.

I can vouch.  Very heavy radar echos with just enough evap cooling in Johnson City and surrounding areas to turn us to snow and produce the largest snowflakes I have seen since 1998.  Some were the size of the bottom of a water bottle.  Picked up a quick 1/2-1 inch that was not on the radar of meteorologists.  Melted quickly after the precip stopped, but heavy daytime snow is always fun regardless of whether it sticks around or not.

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2 hours ago, tnweathernut said:

I can vouch.  Very heavy radar echos with just enough evap cooling in Johnson City and surrounding areas to turn us to snow and produce the largest snowflakes I have seen since 1998.  Some were the size of the bottom of a water bottle.  Picked up a quick 1/2-1 inch that was not on the radar of meteorologists.  Melted quickly after the precip stopped, but heavy daytime snow is always fun regardless of whether it sticks around or not.

I certainly agree with your description of the snowflakes. Those were huge. The ones in 1998 were longer, we all thought those looked like chicken feathers. 

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You guys getting extra sleep right now? Everything remains on track for a significant blocking event beginning to take shape in just 6 days. Will take some time to evolve beyond that but no rug pulls showing up at all. Ens look rock solid near the end of the month.

Fantasy GFS just spit out a sick full continental block and mid latitude wave train (around the entire globe. lol). 

pycXVOs.jpg

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You guys getting extra sleep right now? Everything remains on track for a significant blocking event beginning to take shape in just 6 days. Will take some time to evolve beyond that but no rug pulls showing up at all. Ens look rock solid near the end of the month.

Fantasy GFS just spit out a sick full continental block and mid latitude wave train (around the entire globe. lol). 

pycXVOs.jpg

Man I hope so! As we turn the corner to Feb we're on the short side of time down here. March can produce big down here but it's rare. Your area has an extra month over us usually.

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28 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Man I hope so! As we turn the corner to Feb we're on the short side of time down here. March can produce big down here but it's rare. Your area has an extra month over us usually.

GEFS agrees with the general idea that the op was showing in fantasyland. Overall, it's a very encouraging run for the SE and even deep south from D9 through the end of the run. Nothing is moving back in time either. If anything, the block is modeled to build faster than guidance was showing just 2 days ago. You guys are prob going to be pretty busy tracking stuff from mid next week through potentially the end of Feb. 

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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS agrees with the general idea that the op was showing in fantasyland. Overall, it's a very encouraging run for the SE and even deep south from D9 through the end of the run. Nothing is moving back in time either. If anything, the block is modeled to build faster than guidance was showing just 2 days ago. You guys are prob going to be pretty busy tracking stuff from mid next week through potentially the end of Feb. 

I'm saving this post Bob.  Won't hold it against you when I am sowing grass and playing golf in late Feb.  Hope you are right!

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