Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
 Share

Recommended Posts

25 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Even Robert was close to punting earlier this month. He is starting to come around now but hasnt been as excited as I would expect in "a blockbuster pattern"

If you are talking about Robert at wxsouth he was not close to punting. He had the flu. 

He even said on the 6th that a lot of people were thinking he was saying winter was cancelled. He said that was not what he was saying at all.

He came out twice on the 14 th with Artic blast next weekend. Not this weekend but next week  

I don’t understand why when models show a snowstorm in 10’days some say it not going to happen or it’s a clown map.

However let models show a warm up coming or a hick up in the  model run and some of the same believe its ected in stone. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Even Robert was close to punting earlier this month. He is starting to come around now but hasnt been as excited as I would expect in "a blockbuster pattern"

I think he’s plenty excited. And the weeklies just came in colder again for weeks 3-4. This pattern is as good as we can hope for. Is it a guarantee at snow? No, welcome to the southeast.3405A691-D982-414F-93FF-53C9949700E2.thumb.png.a26ab992a7e1403a162d7ad3fd9f508b.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

@psuhoffman 

Starting to see the neg ao/nao coming into focus in under 10 days. This is going to cause a lot of swings as we get closer. It's really hard to get the timing right when a -nao starts building. It can be sudden and that's why long lead verification scores are so low as leads lengthen. If things happen faster than currently expected then confidence and accuracy of d7+ will drop just as quickly. Model volatility will be fun because we're probably going to see a lot of fantasy big storms but there will be no consistency with timing and track. I'm forecasting an onslaught of "models suck" in the near future.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

 

@psuhoffman 

Starting to see the neg ao/nao coming into focus in under 10 days. This is going to cause a lot of swings as we get closer. It's really hard to get the timing right when a -nao starts building. It can be sudden and that's why long lead verification scores are so low as leads lengthen. If things happen faster than currently expected then confidence and accuracy of d7+ will drop just as quickly. Model volatility will be fun because we're probably going to see a lot of fantasy big storms but there will be no consistency with timing and track. I'm forecasting an onslaught of "models suck" in the near future.

We had snow in Surry County today. The ground was getting white. It came down fast and furious for a while. 

I’m just telling you this because no models were showing this. No mention of snow on our forecast until it was getting close. 

Just sying storms may come with very little warning  

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

We had snow in Surry County today. The ground was getting white. It came down fast and furious for a while. 

I’m just telling you this because no models were showing this. No mention of snow on our forecast until it was getting close. 

Just sying storms may come with very little warning  

 

Your spot on about today, even the mtns played catchup after the radar in TN lit up early this morning. This is a prime example, just like the crusher sneaking up on everyone, models have a hard time with spacing and timing Northern stream energy, espeacilly 3 + days out. Once the pattern becomes steady, like block getting situated,then theyll have higher skill most likely. You get a ns dominant pattern like well have more so post jan 25 and mix in active stj, it just scrambles everything more than it already is, making it tougher to calculate and draw the right conclusion. So buyer be ware.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

When we get to March 1st, I hope we come back and re visit these past few pages and couple of weeks of Lucy-Flu we all have been affected by. Well eitheir be saying I told you so or laughing at ourselves for worrying for nothing. If we cant hit one over the fence somewhere in this forum with this look we are evolving into,then we might as well be throwing jax against the wall next November and stepping on wooly worms, while we burn seasonal models and the farmers almanac.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, NCSNOW said:

 

@psuhoffman 

Starting to see the neg ao/nao coming into focus in under 10 days. This is going to cause a lot of swings as we get closer. It's really hard to get the timing right when a -nao starts building. It can be sudden and that's why long lead verification scores are so low as leads lengthen. If things happen faster than currently expected then confidence and accuracy of d7+ will drop just as quickly. Model volatility will be fun because we're probably going to see a lot of fantasy big storms but there will be no consistency with timing and track. I'm forecasting an onslaught of "models suck" in the near future.

NCEP site shows much less support for -NAO/-AO. PNA is near neutral too. MJO went COD and now is back in the unfavorable zones. When is this magical cold pattern going to set up? To me it just looks like cold shots and warmups for the next two weeks. Sure, the CFS shows really cold weeks 2-4, but when do I truly believe the CFS (unless it says warm, then we can trust it).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

NCEP site shows much less support for -NAO/-AO. PNA is near neutral too. MJO went COD and now is back in the unfavorable zones. When is this magical cold pattern going to set up? To me it just looks like cold shots and warmups for the next two weeks. Sure, the CFS shows really cold weeks 2-4, but when do I truly believe the CFS (unless it says warm, then we can trust it).

The magical cold pattern is setting up exactly when we've been tracking it to for more than the last week and it hasn't moved once. It was always going to be first shot on the 20th, brief moderation, then established pattern after the 24th. Neither major ensembles support cold shots with warmups past that point, at least to the end of their runs. I don't get all the freaking out today, nothing has changed in over a week. The timing hasn't moved, some have just gotten impatient. NWS says they expect the MJO to have little impact on upcoming pattern, besides its rocketing through the unfavorable phases and will be approaching phase 7 or the circle by the 26th/27th. 

12z EPS Telleconections:

1115318761_download(1).png.a74c1ba0217ecce80392886db591288e.png723763691_download(2).png.766d8b33a27b554bca045e803c88b2a5.png1004721451_download(3).png.e4b25b4f79d20aea7b0d283384696898.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

NCEP site shows much less support for -NAO/-AO. PNA is near neutral too. MJO went COD and now is back in the unfavorable zones. When is this magical cold pattern going to set up? To me it just looks like cold shots and warmups for the next two weeks. Sure, the CFS shows really cold weeks 2-4, but when do I truly believe the CFS (unless it says warm, then we can trust it).

Jan25. 0z gfs almost laid white carpet down for it. Actually does in all Virginia. Got good seperation on the trailing vort, but the front hangs up, just need a little more nudge and we might score. We have a window , 4 weeks if the weeklies are right starting post jan25. Maybe we dont get 1985 cold. Ill trade it for a couple frozen precip chances. But from jan 25 to March 1st we are polar opposite of that same time last year. From what i read the quick mjo trip through 4,5,6 isnt gonna matter this time like recently. So take that for what its worth.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

When we get to March 1st, I hope we come back and re visit these past few pages and couple of weeks of Lucy-Flu we all have been affected by. Well eitheir be saying I told you so or laughing at ourselves for worrying for nothing. If we cant hit one over the fence somewhere in this forum with this look we are evolving into,then we might as well be throwing jax against the wall next November and stepping on wooly worms, while we burn seasonal models and the farmers almanac.

It may only take one swing to get the ball over the fence, but the whole winter has been a “ pitch out” intentional walk! :(

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, FallsLake said:

Problem with the 6z GFS is it doesn’t have support from other models and the event is close at 6/7 days out. Other models would need to trend quickly today for this to be “real” or I would sucspect the 12z GFS is going to go back north. 

It’s been on since yesterday’s runs, and is better than Euro, it’s all we got!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Wow unpinned and locked this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...