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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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2 hours ago, mclean02 said:

Whew not sure if that has happened in Greensboro before 10 degrees and snowing ! lol 

Sounding gso.JPG

Keep in mind that the "precip" on the map is the accumulated precip during the previous 6 hours. That sounding is so dry that the only flakes flying will be the dandruff from my head. ;)  Probably whatever precip fell from the sky did so many hours before this sounding. 

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1 minute ago, Poimen said:

Keep in mind that the "precip" on the map is the accumulated precip during the previous 6 hours. That sounding is so dry that the only flakes flying will be the dandruff from my head. ;)  Probably whatever precip fell from the sky did so many hours before this sounding. 

Yep, but it is still interesting seeing the DGZ all the way to the surface. That's some cold air...

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4 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Our GFS snowstorm on the 26th disappeared again

Honestly because of the vast run to run differences on how its handling individual pieces of energy we probably shouldn't even be looking past 4-5 days much less nearly 10. Too much energy flying around right now to have any idea at all for that time frame when such subtle changes can make huge differences in surface weather.

 

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1 minute ago, SnowDawg said:

Honestly because of the vast run to run differences on how its handling individual pieces of energy we probably shouldn't even be looking past 4-5 days much less nearly 10. Too much energy flying around right now to have any idea at all for that time frame when such subtle changes can make huge differences in surface weather.

 

^this is it chief

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Again another late bloomer, this time near the end of the run. Despite losing the storm on the 26th, I actually liked that look better for that time frame. It was very close to getting stream separation and leaving the southern piece behind to potentially slide in under the trough. Regardless though, with our best time frame being beyond the 24th/25th ensembles are the best tool. But I feel better about the end of the month than I did a few days ago. The trough axis slides east more after the 25th with plenty of energy flying around to work with.

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4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Again another late bloomer, this time near the end of the run. Despite losing the storm on the 26th, I actually liked that look better for that time frame. It was very close to getting stream separation and leaving the southern piece behind to potentially slide in under the trough. Regardless though, with our best time frame being beyond the 24th/25th ensembles are the best tool. But I feel better about the end of the month than I did a few days ago. The trough axis slides east more after the 25th with plenty of energy flying around to work with.

Watch canadian. Looked better with that energy but tired of waiting on run to finish. Wasnt holding bsck like gfs it appeared, more consolidated to.

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21 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Just did a sounding for my house (exact GPS location) and it gave an all snow sounding in the DGZ, but a massive 8C warm nose at 925mb gives me the shaft before dropping back to 32° at the surface... Sleet or Zr? What's the call?

I would probably lean towards zr. Looked closer at that late blooming storm on the 28th/29th and that looks like one massive virga storm after the very beginning. Just astonishing looking at these soundings. 

This is the beginning of the storm.image.thumb.png.4719b745a1fee733198e1164ea6d3f0b.png

And this is the very next panel, just 12 hrs later....image.thumb.png.437125cbd932d0f6ef905248984c1650.png

Just ridiculous cold, but also ridiculous drying of the upper levels.... I would love at some point in my lifetime just to see it snow in the teens here much less what that is trying to do.

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If there’s going to be a storm before the end of the month I wouldn’t be surprised if some models start consistently hinting at one in the next 3-5 days.  The storm out west is just coming on shore and will be a big player in the changes to come.  Let that tear things up for a few days and then see where we stand.  Not surprising the models are all over the place with that going on.  

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1 minute ago, GunBlade said:

If there’s going to be a storm before the end of the month I wouldn’t be surprised if some models start consistently hinting at one in the next 3-5 days.  The storm out west is just coming on shore and will be a big player in the changes to come.  Let that tear things up for a few days and then see where we stand.  Not surprising the models are all over the place with that going on.  

Especially with a storm that big and amped

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14 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

This is the type of pattern where a storm pops up and we only have 3-5 days to really track it.  I prefer those because then I don't get hooked into it for 7-10 days.

Agreed. I can only remember once following with high confidence a storm beyond 5 days. That was the Groundhog Day blizzard while I was in SE Wisconsin. Tom Skilling mentioned it, I looked into it by stumbling across this site.

So began my dark decent into these weather boards....

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