Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
 Share

Recommended Posts

Models have been trending southward in regards of wintry precip on Sunday. 6z Fvs now drops 3-5in of frozen precip across northern NC into S. & Se Va. Could be a decent event for those area's. Its still time to get it a lil more south, considering there are strong H pressures over top and behind the Arctic front. Wouldn't be surprised if models show more wintry precip as the front gets closer.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, DownS.EasternVa said:

Models have been trending southward in regards of wintry precip on Sunday. 6z Fvs now drops 3-5in of frozen precip across northern NC into S. & Se Va. Could be a decent event for those area's. Its still time to get it a lil more south, considering there are strong H pressures over top and behind the Arctic front. Wouldn't be surprised if models show more wintry precip as the front gets closer.

Some mets have discussed this in days past, but most have backed off. 6Z FV3 is really the only model showing anything (halfway) significant. Maybe something starts to show on more models in coming days but right now I wouldn't count on it. **this is where our friends on the other side of the mountains can actually score a small event. Our mountains are great for CAD but (in this case) usually slow the cold air down too much to catch moisture.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Looking to the skies said:

The 25th 05 26th.....look at the teleconnections. The EPS and GEFS agree on this. Every one of these goes into the most favorable position they could, all synchronized perfectly.  

-AO

gefs_ao_00-16.png.faca083c92b861c2d55c4526d8d6ece5.png

 

-NAO

gefs_nao_00-16.png.a209a2a2b6774dc08c48e417e990c835.png

 

+PNA

gefs_pna_00-16.png.7b264d86d4354ab03f2324f20a030f9b.png

 

-EPO

gefs_epo_00-16.png.0dc0a28fa4f1553bb00ef3c6366ffba9.png

 

If I remember some of the discussion on the above indices, a -PNA is not bad if we have the AO, NAO and specifically the EPO on our side (all negative).

Usually when I see a -PNA I think we're done for...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

If I remember some of the discussion on the above indices, a -PNA is not bad if we have the AO, NAO and specifically the EPO on our side (all negative).

Usually when I see a -PNA I think we're done for...

Yeah, I think the PNA goes a bit negative/neutral because essentially there's no ridge on the west coast.  I could be wrong through. There's basically a full conus trough as all the ridging is up top.  I think in that instance it's a good thing.  The vortex is displaced into SE Canada and suppresses the flow so everything's going to come south, with a good feed of cold.  All the other indices therefore offset the lack of a west coast ridge. Really like what the ensembles are selling for very end of January to start February.  Like Matt said, it looks good.  I don't know if it's ever been better?  And it could last well into March potentially.  Just have to wait another week or so and we should start seeing the models light up in the medium to long range I bet. 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_65.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

If I remember some of the discussion on the above indices, a -PNA is not bad if we have the AO, NAO and specifically the EPO on our side (all negative).

Usually when I see a -PNA I think we're done for...

 

1 hour ago, SnowNiner said:

Yeah, I think the PNA goes a bit negative/neutral because essentially there's no ridge on the west coast.  I could be wrong through. There's basically a full conus trough as all the ridging is up top.  I think in that instance it's a good thing.  The vortex is displaced into SE Canada and suppresses the flow so everything's going to come south, with a good feed of cold.  All the other indices therefore offset the lack of a west coast ridge. Really like what the ensembles are selling for very end of January to start February.  Like Matt said, it looks good.  I don't know if it's ever been better?  And it could last well into March potentially.  Just have to wait another week or so and we should start seeing the models light up in the medium to long range I bet. 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_65.png

You do NOT want energy to start getting shunted out into the SW and off the west coast, causing a trough out there unless you have a big time west -NAO pressing the vortex south.  You don't want it split either, having a piece over western Canada and one over eastern Canada with a weakness in the middle for storms to work into.

This is not a good look at all.  Fortunately, it's the 0z 384 Op GFS.  So it's unlikely to evolve this way.

gfs_z500_mslp_namer_53.thumb.png.d793d344dee12bfe0782e53273d19425.png

The 6z looks like this.  Even worse:

886881664_gfs_z500_mslp_namer_53(1).thumb.png.7e130c2ca9d3973dab53c4ca03a6209e.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

 

You do NOT want energy to start getting shunted out into the SW and off the west coast, causing a trough out there unless you have a big time west -NAO pressing the vortex south.  You don't want it split either, having a piece over western Canada and one over eastern Canada with a weakness in the middle for storms to work into.

This is not a good look at all.  Fortunately, it's the 0z 384 Op GFS.  So it's unlikely to evolve this way.

 

The 6z looks like this.  Even worse:

 

At least its a good look for the other boards. Like you said it wont materialize due to the fact its 384hrs.

 

Side note: Where did you guys read that the shutdown was impacting the American weather models?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

 

You do NOT want energy to start getting shunted out into the SW and off the west coast, causing a trough out there unless you have a big time west -NAO pressing the vortex south.  You don't want it split either, having a piece over western Canada and one over eastern Canada with a weakness in the middle for storms to work into.

This is not a good look at all.  Fortunately, it's the 0z 384 Op GFS.  So it's unlikely to evolve this way.

gfs_z500_mslp_namer_53.thumb.png.d793d344dee12bfe0782e53273d19425.png

The 6z looks like this.  Even worse:

886881664_gfs_z500_mslp_namer_53(1).thumb.png.7e130c2ca9d3973dab53c4ca03a6209e.png

You can see the storm track NW of our location (story of the past few weeks). Hopefully with this pattern change the models are having difficulties; especially the American models because of all the talk of low maintenance (..budget impasse). 

Just looking out 10 days, the euro does look good. Maybe it's the model that will lead all the others:

 

aaaa.jpg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

You can see the storm track NW of our location (story of the past few weeks). Hopefully with this pattern change the models are having difficulties; especially the American models because of all the talk of low maintenance (..budget impasse). 

Just looking out 10 days, the euro does look good. Maybe it's the model that will lead all the others:

 

aaaa.jpg

Brad Panovich has a good video this morning on the cold coming. Brad Panovich Twitter 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Looking to the skies said:

The 25th 05 26th.....look at the teleconnections. The EPS and GEFS agree on this. Every one of these goes into the most favorable position they could, all synchronized perfectly.  

-AO

gefs_ao_00-16.png.faca083c92b861c2d55c4526d8d6ece5.png

 

-NAO

gefs_nao_00-16.png.a209a2a2b6774dc08c48e417e990c835.png

 

+PNA

gefs_pna_00-16.png.7b264d86d4354ab03f2324f20a030f9b.png

 

-EPO

gefs_epo_00-16.png.0dc0a28fa4f1553bb00ef3c6366ffba9.png

 

Except the MJO goes into warm phases! That’s what’s driven the dumpster fire of a winter and doesn’t look to change anytime soon! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Except the MJO goes into warm phases! That’s what’s driven the dumpster fire of a winter and doesn’t look to change anytime soon! 

Since Jan 10 we've been in a favorable MJO and Greensboro has had 6 straight days below normal. All in the -4 to-6 range. Today may make it 7. Anyway we stay within 2 to 3 of AN or BN till Monday and Tuesday which will end up BN. So seeing how we torched Jan 1-10 and how Jan 11-23 will easily end up BN. It matches the MJO cold and warm phases and gives support to what you are stating. Lets see what happens Jan 23-Feb 1. No doubt MJO  forecasted  to go back in the warm phase. Just pray its not stuck for weeks like it was Mid December to Jan 10.  

Make no mistake I'm on board with a fantastic pattern continuing from Jan 25- Early March. I say continuing because the pattern changed Jan 11, It just gets better after Jan25th. Bought into weeklies lock , stock n barrel for various reasons not just because weeklies say so.  Until I see evidence from the euro camp I've been head faked I refuse to let the GFS change my mind. Especially when the GEFS says is off its rocker. I will be the 1st to call myself out if indeed this winds up going down in flames post Jan 25. No need to wait till FEB 15th etc. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

 

You do NOT want energy to start getting shunted out into the SW and off the west coast, causing a trough out there unless you have a big time west -NAO pressing the vortex south.  You don't want it split either, having a piece over western Canada and one over eastern Canada with a weakness in the middle for storms to work into.

This is not a good look at all.  Fortunately, it's the 0z 384 Op GFS.  So it's unlikely to evolve this way.

gfs_z500_mslp_namer_53.thumb.png.d793d344dee12bfe0782e53273d19425.png

The 6z looks like this.  Even worse:

886881664_gfs_z500_mslp_namer_53(1).thumb.png.7e130c2ca9d3973dab53c4ca03a6209e.png

Thanks CR, yeah you see the storm track better with the heights there.  Yeah I guess we don't want lower heights to the west at all, still makes it hard to get everything south. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Cold coming down post storm: watch the clipper as well. Throwing stuff against the wall hunting anything to stick.

sfcmslp.conus.png

That’s what I don’t understand about talk that MJO going warm in long range. We can’t even get a storm settled less than 4  days out but we know that MJO is gong to warm phase because One model says so. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Wow unpinned and locked this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...