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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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For right now, this is good enough for me:

While the aforementioned mid-upr low/trough will lift newd and away from the nern US through the end of the week, renewed nrn stream amplification is forecast to occur from cntl Canada to the cntl Appalachians Fri-Sun. At the same time, a srn stream shortwave trough is forecast to migrate across the srn US, with some interaction/phasing possible invof the srn middle Atlantic coast over the weekend. While the complexity of the flow will yield uncertainty regarding forecast details for the next several days, the overall pattern is one supportive of cyclogenesis from the GOM to the middle Atlantic coast, with sufficient cold air in place to support snow across parts of the middle Atlantic states, including probably the NC Piedmont, by Sat-Sat night.

 

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52 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Has anyone seen the UKIE from overnight? Its usually good at dissecting phased storms. IF its not seeing a phaser like the gfs is showing, then It definitely lends more credence to the euro .

UKMet valid 0z Sunday. 

FDC5FF7C-48FF-4509-9430-28BB09543047.thumb.jpeg.94cc39b458aca2a4a0e2e713304cc7dc.jpeg

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6 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

FWIW: The 6Z GEFS MSLP Anomaly doesn't jive with the OP.  More Miller A-like.

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_27.png

That's a pretty good configuration for a southeast winter storm.  It would be nice to have some snow cover established up north to refrigerate the air being transported in here.  I would definitely favor very western zones with this one.

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13 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

That's a pretty good configuration for a southeast winter storm.  It would be nice to have some snow cover established up north to refrigerate the air being transported in here.  I would definitely favor very western zones with this one.

If we can get a good low track / high location, we should be good for surface temps. The initial cold front coming through this week is cold. GFS(s) have low teens (dew points) for many of us. If we can keep that from being scored out, we may have something with this storm. 

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4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I don’t remember how far out during the tracking of the Dec storm it was, but I think a few model runs showed miller B options, before finally honing in on the miller A track

Yep - Miller A didn’t show up until a few days before if I remember correctly.

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8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Not 100% sure, but from what I can tell, 12z CMC is Miller A... tracks up the coast... very different from 12z GFS

yep, much further south.  although they handle the low much different, both solutions look icy for many. 

at least this system has one thing the last one didn't, actually respectably low dewpoints/dry air, and evap cooling potential. 

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