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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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12z Euro looks a lot like the ICON this run at 500mb with west coast ridge spike dropping the northern stream down into the southern plains and linking up with the southern wave.  Not a heavy event, but temps look like what we've seen with many of our wintry storms of late....i.e. wintry along and northwest of GSP to CLT to RDU

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5 minutes ago, griteater said:

12z Euro looks a lot like the ICON this run at 500mb with west coast ridge spike dropping the northern stream down into the southern plains and linking up with the southern wave.  Not a heavy event, but temps look like what we've seen with many storms of late....i.e. wintry along and northwest of GSP to CLT to RDU

Kinda like a lighter version of the canadian from yesterday. 

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11 minutes ago, griteater said:

The trough over SE Canada out ahead of the storm to trend stronger and farther south, with the associated damming sfc high building in behind that trough to extend more cold air to the south

That’s kind of what happened with the December storm, the confluence got stronger on modeling as we got closer, most models had a 1035 or so for that storm, and cold was marginal. Most are modeling this one as a 1040/41, maybe this will trend colder!?

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3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

That’s kind of what happened with the December storm, the confluence got stronger on modeling as we got closer, most models had a 1035 or so for that storm, and cold was marginal. Most are modeling this one as a 1040/41, maybe this will trend colder!?

You would think this would trend colder, at least on the surface. I keep on harping on the initial cold, but with dew points falling into the teens before this system arrives the CAD that does set up will have a better chance of verifying colder and farther south.  

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Just now, FallsLake said:

You would think this would trend colder, at least on the surface. I keep on harping on the initial cold, but with dew points falling into the teens before this system arrives the CAD that does set up will have a better chance of verifying colder and farther south.  

Agreed. My gut feeling is it trends wetter just going by seasonal trends. 

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4 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

You would think this would trend colder, at least on the surface. I keep on harping on the initial cold, but with dew points falling into the teens before this system arrives the CAD that does set up will have a better chance of verifying colder and farther south.  

For the best winter storms and wedges, don’t we want single digit DP’s?

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4 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Looks like the 12z ICON is on board for a winter storm. At hr 156 has the snow line from SW NC to Raleigh then Rocky Mount. It only shows rain/frozen so I'm sure there is some ice below that line. 

 

Edit: Has the surface freezing line from Greenville SC to south of Charlotte, to south/east of Raleigh.

2

New theorem proposal.

Anytime a model, no matter how far out, has the snow line through Raleigh it should be taken seriously.

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