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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019


Upstate Tiger
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It's difficult to read long lead 'potential' positives when it is now Jan 1st. 

So it sounds like we have virtually zero chances of a cold regime, let alone any snow before say MLK day right?   

Tough around here for the heart of winter.

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1 hour ago, CaryWx said:

It's difficult to read long lead 'potential' positives when it is now Jan 1st. 

So it sounds like we have virtually zero chances of a cold regime, let alone any snow before say MLK day right?   

Tough around here for the heart of winter.

Yes. This is a very stable puke pattern in the Pacific. Always is when you deal with the AK vortex and raging Pac jet. Guarantee you it'll last 4-6 weeks at least. That's middle to the end of January before any improvement at least. Good thing it started in mid December so Feb may can be salvaged. But I have seen that pattern ruin an entire winter. 11-12 comes to mind. Different enso and different drivers but same Pac puke pattern. 16-17 also comes to mind. Super Nino but still the same Pac look that never changed. Be thankful for the snow in December. May be all you get.

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1 hour ago, Waiting on snow said:

Yes. This is a very stable puke pattern in the Pacific. Always is when you deal with the AK vortex and raging Pac jet. Guarantee you it'll last 4-6 weeks at least. That's middle to the end of January before any improvement at least. Good thing it started in mid December so Feb may can be salvaged. But I have seen that pattern ruin an entire winter. 11-12 comes to mind. Different enso and different drivers but same Pac puke pattern. 16-17 also comes to mind. Super Nino but still the same Pac look that never changed. Be thankful for the snow in December. May be all you get.

It’s amazing that we can’t get a stable cold pattern, for even a week! We can lock in torch for two months, at the drop of a hat

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10 hours ago, griteater said:

The EPS looks straight wretched in the mid & extended range with the Alaska/Gulf of Alaska/West Coast trough trifecta.  That's about as bad as it gets out west.

GotMruy.gif

 

In contrast, the GEFS develops a nice pattern in its extended range.

Mxw156B.gif

 

The GEPS is somewhere in between the 2, but closer to the GEFS

 

The MJO on the RMM plots has made steady progress the last 2 days and has finally reached the beginning of phase 6.

0EQT7ry.gif

 

The dynamical model RMM plots bring the MJO into phase 7 in the next 5 days, then have varying long term MJO solutions.  Given the current MJO amplitude, we should expect the MJO to continue on thru phases 6-7-8-1 over time, with the specifics around the timing to be determined.

 

The filtered VP portion of the MJO shows that the enhanced convection associated with the MJO has moved from the Maritime Continent out into the western Pacific over the past week (blues and purple).

MkPCpTa.gif

Y6jRMba.gif

Loop of those images shown here: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/maps/mjo/global_analyses.html

 

The week 2 GFS forecast of MJO filtered VP shows the suppressed convection moving east and centered over the Maritime Continent, with the enhanced convection extending from the central & eastern Pacific to Africa.  That's where we want to be from a tropical forcing standpoint to begin to see improving western ridging / eastern troughing solutions in the models. 

84RSm7e.gif

 

The official SSWarming wind reversal is occurring today.  The extent to which it propagates down into the troposphere to affect our weather remains to be seen.  It this one does propagate downward, it looks like it's going to take some time - at least a few weeks.

 

I think there is good reason to remain optimistic about wintry weather returning in the 2nd half of Jan into Feb, but until we see good ensemble runs showing consistently, it's all speculation.  

 

I did find it kind of funny that the very last image of yesterday's Euro Weeklies for Feb 9-14 was the best image of the run, as if the model is just wanting to tease us

xeHIiiz.gif

25932Hw.gif

 

Thanks for this info, we appreciate it, and I agree with you...last half of January into Feb, will be most favorable.  A local up here in Boone, told me that Ol' Man Winter is out sharpening his axe!

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10 hours ago, Poimen said:

It's interesting to compare this year with last year. Last January we experienced record cold/snow in the first half of January, only to flip to extreme torch in February. This year is shaping up to do the same but in reverse order.  

I don't know about that.  All my calendars still have January before February. Good luck though!

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7 hours ago, jburns said:

I don't know about that.  All my calendars still have January before February. Good luck though!

Your calendar may be good, but your eyes or reading comprehension may need to be checked, old-timer. It did say, "in reverse order." Good luck though! 

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Whats happening now is a prime example of why the Pacific is so much more important to have on your side verses the Atlantic (-Nao, etc) . Its what matters the most as far as effects on the SE winter weather pattern. You screw up the Pac pattern and your gonna toast. We are literally gonna be punting December 26-January 15 at a minimum from the looks of things now and that very well could extend on into the Jan 20-30 time frame. February and early March still could set up in stellar fashion or continue with the putrid garbage we are experiencing now. So the jury is still out on the last 1/3 of winter. Playing with house money this season, but I hate forfeiting the Prime climo dead of winter. We never see the Dog days ( Mid July- Mid August) at -15--20 BN lol! However getting +15-+20 is a piece of cake during the dead of winter.

 

The pacific is like a Pressure washer of hot steam. To much warm soup whipped up and its driving/forcing the NH pattern currently. Until something negates that, we aint gonna see a change to our sensible wx downstream.

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35 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Whats happening now is a prime example of why the Pacific is so much more important to have on your side verses the Atlantic (-Nao, etc) . Its what matters the most as far as effects on the SE winter weather pattern. You screw up the Pac pattern and your gonna toast. We are literally gonna be punting December 26-January 15 at a minimum from the looks of things now and that very well could extend on into the Jan 20-30 time frame. February and early March still could set up in stellar fashion or continue with the putrid garbage we are experiencing now. So the jury is still out on the last 1/3 of winter. Playing with house money this season, but I hate forfeiting the Prime climo dead of winter. We never see the Dog days ( Mid July- Mid August) at -15--20 BN lol! However getting +15-+20 is a piece of cake during the dead of winter.

 

The pacific is like a Pressure washer of hot steam. To much warm soup whipped up and its driving/forcing the NH pattern currently. Until something negates that, we aint gonna see a change to our sensible wx downstream.

The writing is on the wall here. January is toast. I posted last week that when GSP gets an inch or more in December January was a shutout in all but 10-11 and 17-18. And 10-11 was late Dec and early Jan and was from the same pattern, so not really the same.

Feb is not lost but the two recent years the Pac jet got this strong it ruined the whole winter. 11-12 and 16-17. 

If the 0Z EPS is even close at the end of it's run January is toast. You don't transition from that crap to a decent pattern quickly.

Screenshot_20190103-073735_Chrome.jpg

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

LOL, in this wretched pattern, the Euro is setting up for glory at the end of its run.  Cold high out front, suppressive flow in the east, bowling ball wave moving into SCAL, with kicker wave behind it in the EPAC.

45fU19z.gif

Itll take an absolute perfectly timed event to score right meow. Hope and pray a flip is coming around day 15.

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17 minutes ago, southernskimmer said:

This is the case for nearly every winter storm for everybody in the southeast (outside of the mountains)

It can definitely happen. The storm last month conditions were not perfect but came together well. 

Look at the storm now in Oklahoma. Wow. 

Contitions are right there tonight. 

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56 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Late next weekend into Monday is really starting to look interesting. Been watching since Grit post yesterday on Euro 12z. Now fv3 and gfs starting to send smoke signals. Im not ready to fire up the bus but i got the keys in my hand. 

Yes, may not be snow sign yet but I can open the fireplace again after mid month I think

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