CT Valley Snowman Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Another year, another Grinch. Have at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: As long as I am on a plane flying at 6am, have at it. If you're headed west, try and fly on the north side of the waterspouts for a little extra oomph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: If you're headed west, try and fly on the north side of the waterspouts for a little extra oomph. South actually. Thinking we head 1/2 way out over the Atlantic before making the turn S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: South actually. Thinking we head 1/2 way out over the Atlantic before making the turn S. Maybe a few spouts near the Cape will give you a boost if you fly on west side of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Maybe a few spouts near the Cape will give you a boost if you fly on west side of them. Turbo! He will be in the Wizarding World by 9AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 More inches of rain in December than inches of snow possible a brief EF0 or 2 could happen PWAT the heck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Nam shows winds gusting 45-50 for west side Berks up west slope of green spine early Friday am over to se CT , RI, SE mass spreadind northward afterwards but not as strong elsewhere shows near 50 in CT AND E mass/Ri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Turbo! He will be in the Wizarding World by 9AM Models are producing low level get near 80mph+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Sorry "Jet" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Forecast highs in the lower 60s for Cape and Islands. With S to SSE winds, maybe the inversion off sets the highest gust potential like the NAM 3KM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 20, 2018 Author Share Posted December 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: More inches of rain in December than inches of snow possible a brief EF0 or 2 could happen PWAT the heck Mets were discussing PWAT's yesterday at possibly record levels to illustrate how impressive this tropical moisture feed is going to be. I haven't analyzed real closely but it looks like some of the meso models are trying to shift the heaviest axis of precip a bit further west into areas of Western New England and adjacent Eastern New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Driving down 95 in Norwalk this morning I saw that they had cleaned out the drains in the median recently - I think last night. Looked like they used a backhoe on several of them recently - fresh dirt all around the drains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Models are producing low level get near 80mph+ That they are, but unfortunately the nose of the LLJ is like 7 degrees warmer than the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 No pack in Lowell, but 6" of concrete up here. 2.5" qpf going to do some damage, but I expect to see some snow remaining. Maybe cut it in half? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: Mets were discussing PWAT's yesterday at possibly record levels to illustrate how impressive this tropical moisture feed is going to be. I haven't analyzed real closely but it looks like some of the meso models are trying to shift the heaviest axis of precip a bit further west into areas of Western New England and adjacent Eastern New York. The focus seems to be shifting towards the Tri State area, besides the SE upslope in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 my guess is for an inch of rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That they are, but unfortunately the nose of the LLJ is like 7 degrees warmer than the surface. true, the clipper is getting interesting on the 00z EPS mean and individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 The wind had shifted into the SW when I was up at 2 am, and the temp was rising off the overnight low already...and so it begins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That they are, but unfortunately the nose of the LLJ is like 7 degrees warmer than the surface. Why are models so insistent the gusts are so high then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Widespread 50-60mph gusts seem very likely with this. The kind you can hear ripping thru the woods and treetops a mile a away as they scream thru . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 I would imagine some of those gusts could mix down with the heavier precip, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Geez...I need to set a reminder not to park under a tree tomorrow. Looks like I'm in the 64-68 mph range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Why are models so insistent the gusts are so high then? How are winds looking towards the NJ Shore? NWS Mt. Holly is saying 20-30 gusts to 50 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Why are models so insistent the gusts are so high then? I feel like we do this every time. Those 10m gusts are usually too high. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Why are models so insistent the gusts are so high then? Legit checking on how the NAM nest even calculates that now. It's a model derived wind gust, I just need to figure out how it's derived. At 15z it has PWM gusting to 47 kts, when the same model data in Bufkit would suggest around 25 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Widespread 50-60mph gusts seem very likely with this. The kind you can hear ripping thru the woods and treetops a mile a away as they scream thru . Oh you'll hear it in the tree tops, it just may be meh at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: The wind had shifted into the SW when I was up at 2 am, and the temp was rising off the overnight low already...and so it begins ...."The great grinch storm of our time" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: Convection is obviously a wild card, but it's a pretty serious inversion. Moving this over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Legit checking on how the NAM nest even calculates that now. It's a model derived wind gust, I just need to figure out how it's derived. At 15z it has PWM gusting to 47 kts, when the same model data in Bufkit would suggest around 25 kts. So we need to deal with weenie wind gust images too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 37 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: Mets were discussing PWAT's yesterday at possibly record levels to illustrate how impressive this tropical moisture feed is going to be. I haven't analyzed real closely but it looks like some of the meso models are trying to shift the heaviest axis of precip a bit further west into areas of Western New England and adjacent Eastern New York. I am not surprised at this. Seems to happen with this type of system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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