December Discussion II

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Well no, the past 20 years have been some of the snowiest we've ever seen. I'm shocked we haven't had more bad years.

As far as this winter goes, the moment of truth is only 3 weeks away. Either the warmies will look foolish and be forced to eat crow or the forecasters will hide in their bunkers to escape the warmies. 

Fun times

I know I won't hide if I'm wrong...I missed the forecast with the 2015-2016 super el nino, save for the mid atl blizzard, and was front and center to analyze the failure.

There is more value to be gleaned from those than the verified forecasts.

[weathafella]

47 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 1/3 event may very well cut as well.  I don’t buy that event being suppressed at all.  When has the WAR ever underperformed once in the last few winters or an arctic boundary arrived faster than expected 5-6 days out when we have any semblance of a WAR or SER? 

That’s one of the 3 that everyone is talking about.

[weathafella]

31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha!  zactly...  I stopped shy of venturing there in that verbose rendition...

The memory has an interesting way of interfering with objectivity ... It seems, mental data parts company from empirical -based data at times. Particularly, in those that assign a 'personal' value to matters.  

But... yeah, I agree we are 'changing the mean' - as I put it before.  How much... how that may express (or not) relative to circumstance and so forth ... meh, too murky of a subject matter.

The problem is for New England at least the Boston area its not true based on analysis of temperatures.

[CoastalWx]

FV3 is a POS.

[NorEastermass128]

This thread is coming to a close. I fully expect meltdowns to be widespread leading up to the NYD cutter if what follows is MOTSOS. Myself included. 

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

This thread is coming to a close. I fully expect meltdowns to be widespread leading up to the NYD cutter of what follows is MOTSOS. Myself included. 

No need for a meltdown over something you have no control over. There are more important things in life. The winter has been a disappointment so far  but there is nothing we can do about it. Not all winters are good ones for those of us of love winter weather. I think that is why it is important for people to be involved with several activities during the winter. I've been involved with coaching basketball for many years so that provides a good outlet during the winter even if it is not cold and snowy.  I went to a girls tournament last night to scout. And there are several more tournaments to go to for the next several days.  For some people here cold and snow has become a borderline obsession much in the way video gaming has for some other people. When it borders on an obsession that is when it is time for some  to take a break.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Only thing better than December rain is January rain

trying to recall worse Holiday weather?

[Great Snow 1717]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Only thing better than December rain is January rain

trying to recall worse Holiday weather?

In regards to Christmas?

[weathafella]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Only thing better than December rain is January rain

trying to recall worse Holiday weather?

2011,2014,2015, others.  But some of those years were milder.  This year has been closer to normal temperatures.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

2011,2014,2015, others.  But st least some of those years were milder.  This year has been closer to normal temperatures.

2015 was awful but I do know some people who loved the warmth on the 24th. And I know some people who thought last year's Christmas weather was awful because it changed their travel plans.  At the gym today there were several people talking about how nice the winter has been so far. 

[weathafella]

23 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

No need for a meltdown over something you have no control over. There are more important things in life. The winter has been a disappointment so far  but there is nothing we can do about it. Not all winters are good ones for those of us of love winter weather. I think that is why it is important for people to be involved with several activities during the winter. I've been involved with coaching basketball for many years so that provides a good outlet during the winter even if it is not cold and snowy.  I went to a girls tournament last night to scout. And there are several more tournaments to go to for the next several days.  For some people here cold and snow has become a borderline obsession much in the way video gaming has for some other people. When it borders on an obsession that is when it is time for some  to take a break.

I think most here have a lot of stuff in their lives but this is their place to weenie out with like minded folks.  My life was never altered in a negative way by ratter winters nor did it get qualitatively better with epicosity.   But like sports we enjoy it and feel if differently than most of the populace.  Nothing make this 72 year old feel more childlike than snow falling.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

 Mid 30s across the valley today.   Not convinced we get too much in the way of wintry precipitation tonight.   I would honestly prefer a cold rain rather than get any accumulating sleet that is going to freeze on my driveway. 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

To bad i have 0 faith in the GGEM but its shows how some can get lucky with the NYD event as it develops a secondary that tracks along the coast and keeps the cold air in place longer, That's something to watch going forward to see if anything more reliable picks up on it.

That 12z Euro run headed in the CMC direction for NYD.

[Typhoon Tip]

44 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The problem is for New England at least the Boston area its not true based on analysis of temperatures.

You know ...it's true and it's interesting, that disparate recent ten year's of climo being a convenient argument.  mm.  

But ...one can really see it elsewhere.  Aside, the rest of the planet is empirically warmer - seein' as we're tacitly dancing 'round the music of gw in present context.  But things are different... not a statement as to the ominous nature of it... but for those of us that obsess in model topography and morphism over the last ... pretty much 20 years of our lives, it's just in the way the models handle the atmosphere. Some-thing is different. 

It may even stand to a separate approach of reason, too.  I've presented this in the past ... NASA released, per month, a state of the climo address ... in which (as I'm sure you know), contains a colorized mercator layout of the entire planet, red for warm blue for cool regions.  For the vast majority of the months going back 120's worth ... there is a bias in the red side... except, here.

I'd estimate that while we may well have averaged above normal in our own rites, as their data show the majority of times somewhere in the vicinity of eastern N/A there has been a meandering offset cool region. Not always... but > 50%.  Speculative ...but it wouldn't shock me if we're sort of blessed locally in that we're proximal to what global mechanisms are favoring this region as "not as" warm if not cooler at times. 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, dryslot said:

That 12z Euro run headed in the CMC direction for NYD.

Looks good for you guys

[weathafella]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

You know ...it's true and it's interesting, that disparate recent ten year's of climo being a convenient argument.  mm.  

But ...one can really see it elsewhere.  Aside, the rest of the planet is empirically warmer - seein' as we're tacitly dancing 'round the music of gw in present context.  But things are different... not a statement as to the ominous nature of it... but for those of us that obsess in model topography and morphism over the last ... pretty much 20 years of our lives, it's just in the way the models handle the atmosphere. Some-thing is different. 

It may even stand to a separate approach of reason, too.  I've presented this in the past ... NASA released, per month, a state of the climo address ... in which (as I'm sure you know), contains a colorized mercator layout of the entire planet, red for warm blue for cool regions.  For the vast majority of the months going back 120's worth ... there is a bias in the red side... except, here.

I'd estimate that while we may well have averaged above normal in our own rites, as their data show the majority of times somewhere in the vicinity of eastern N/A there has been a meandering offset cool region. Not always... but > 50%.  Speculative ...but it wouldn't shock me if we're sort of blessed locally in that we're proximal to what global mechanisms are favoring this region as "not as" warm if not cooler at times. 

Oh it’s coming but for now we’re an island of cold in a sea of warmth.

[ApacheTrout]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha!  zactly...  I stopped shy of venturing there in that verbose rendition...

The memory has an interesting way of interfering with objectivity ... It seems, mental data parts company from empirical -based data at times. Particularly, in those that assign a 'personal' value to matters.  

But... yeah, I agree we are 'changing the mean' - as I put it before.  How much... how that may express (or not) relative to circumstance and so forth ... meh, too murky of a subject matter.

lol.  I didn't mean my comment as a zing against your longer response.  I always enjoy reading those.

Memory has its way of playing tricks.  I've been in Vermont since 2004, and 2011 spoiled me rotten with its constant clippers on the way to 100+ inches of snow.  That's way above normal (I think it was near or record snow at BTV), but I've set it as my personal μ even though I know not to do exactly that.  So when my area's true average is close to 60, I tend to view reaching the mean as a disappointment, especially when most of the damn stuff falls in March.

[dryslot]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Looks good for you guys

This could be the one we get lucky on, Could be better for some further south as well, But its will have its limit.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, ApacheTrout said:

lol.  I didn't mean my comment as a zing against your longer response.  I always enjoy reading those.

Memory has its way of playing tricks.  I've been in Vermont since 2004, and 2011 spoiled me rotten with its constant clippers on the way to 100+ inches of snow.  That's way above normal (I think it was near or record snow at BTV), but I've set it as my personal μ even though I know not to do exactly that.  So when my area's true average is close to 60, I tend to view reaching the mean as a disappointment, especially when most of the damn stuff falls in March.

Our snowfall has sharply increased in recent decades, so I actually think one of the problems is our memories are too short....we endured putrid snowfall winters more frequently 30+ years ago than recent times. The expectations are that winters of 0.5-1 sigma snowfall above normal will continue to be the rule rather than the exception when that will likely prove incorrect over the next few decades. At some point, even ignoring climate change, the law of averages will catch up to us. Throw in climate change and maybe it happens even more suddenly. Who knows for sure, but BOS isn't going to keep putting up 50" decadal averages. They couldn't even pull that off during the pony express. 

[78Blizzard]

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

I think most here have a lot of stuff in their lives but this is their place to weenie out with like minded folks.  My life was never altered in a negative way by ratter winters nor did it get qualitatively better with epicosity.   But like sports we enjoy it and feel if differently than most of the populace.  Nothing make this 72 year old feel more childlike than snow falling.

This 72 year old next week seconds that.

[Ginx snewx]

15 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

This 72 year old next week seconds that.

Happy birthday young man. EPS is shaping up so we need to get this over with and on to 2019

[weathafella]

17 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

This 72 year old next week seconds that.

Happy birthday!  

[CoastalWx]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Our snowfall has sharply increased in recent decades, so I actually think one of the problems is our memories are too short....we endured putrid snowfall winters more frequently 30+ years ago than recent times. The expectations are that winters of 0.5-1 sigma snowfall above normal will continue to be the rule rather than the exception when that will likely prove incorrect over the next few decades. At some point, even ignoring climate change, the law of averages will catch up to us. Throw in climate change and maybe it happens even more suddenly. Who knows for sure, but BOS isn't going to keep putting up 50" decadal averages. They couldn't even pull that off during the pony express. 

You can tell who lived through the 80s and early 90s and who did not.   They think it’s hyperbole, but it straight up was brutal. Maybe we need some of that. 10 years of hell to set the weenies straight. 

[78Blizzard]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Happy birthday young man. EPS is shaping up so we need to get this over with and on to 2019

 

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Happy birthday!  

Thanks fellow snow lovers.

[Ginx snewx]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You can tell who lived through the 80s and early 90s and who did not.   They think it’s hyperbole, but it straight up was brutal. Maybe we need some of that. 10 years of hell to set the weenies straight. 

Graphs from Jan 1980 to Dec 1999 and 2000 to 2018 for the North Foster Coop Red is normal green is actual, so 200 inch rough AN in the 2000s while 100 BN in the 80's 90's so we are talking a 300 inch gain and that is only 18 years versus 19

[Ginx snewx]

Same Charts reset every year on 11-01, shows the number of ratters

[kdxken]

" If you look at the 28 winters with fewer than 2 inches of snow in December, you will find 24 of them end up with below-average snowfall for the season. Only two of them have average snowfall, and two have above-average snowfall. This, of course, means that the odds of us having a very snowy winter based on past behavior is quite low. "

https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/12/27/winter-over-before-begins-here-what-forecast-says/oScAGtCmBUgILIW4WOb0WO/story.html

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

" If you look at the 28 winters with fewer than 2 inches of snow in December, you will find 24 of them end up with below-average snowfall for the season. Only two of them have average snowfall, and two have above-average snowfall. This, of course, means that the odds of us having a very snowy winter based on past behavior is quite low. "

https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2018/12/27/winter-over-before-begins-here-what-forecast-says/oScAGtCmBUgILIW4WOb0WO/story.html

Ryan (Ct Rain)posted that in Dec 14 to bust Kevs balls, I remember distinctly thinking oh boy thats a phail, think the same this year. Since its paywalled, here is the spreadsheet

[ORH_wxman]

If we weren't in a weak El Niño with a really strong long range signal for a favorable pattern, I would def forecast below normal snowfall for BOS at this point. But those other two factors right now outweigh the stats for me....you can see the exceptions to the rule are El Niño winters with big pattern flips in January....and that is exactly what is progged at the moment. Of course, maybe it all fails and we keep getting the AK vortex to come back and we get a 1994-1995, but right now I'd bet against it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If we weren't in a weak El Niño with a really strong long range signal for a favorable pattern, I would def forecast below normal snowfall for BOS at this point. But those other two factors right now outweigh the stats for me....you can see the exceptions to the rule are El Niño winters with big pattern flips in January....and that is exactly what is progged at the moment. Of course, maybe it all fails and we keep getting the AK vortex to come back and we get a 1994-1995, but right now I'd bet against it. 

Complete agreement. Anything is possible, but nothing supports the latter scenario at present.