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December Discussion II


Typhoon Tip
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56 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Look on the bright side.  Snow cover of even an inch allows for burning brush without a permit! Lol.  I have 4 large brush piles full of multi-floral rose and bittersweet that has literally killed hundreds of my trees.  Burning it all on New Years and it will be a great party.

 

Best NYE parties always involve a big fire pit

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1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

Scott Will Ray and others...you have been right.  Isotherm too aggressive with late December (it seems, as he expected models to correct toward colder solutions) although the ideas expressed by him Ray Don (and probably others) still may be prescient we fiercly hope.  It sure is great to have access to this kind of expertise.

I am not worried.

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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

I just don’t like how they wreck the skiing.  It had been good. Now it’s icy.  Ah well

Its not good for most winter activities having no snow, At least we have plenty of ice, It would be worse if this was 06 when the lakes and ponds didn't freeze until mid Jan that winter, I'll just wait it out to ride, In the meantime, I'll fish..............:)

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2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

Look on the bright side.  Snow cover of even an inch allows for burning brush without a permit! Lol.  I have 4 large brush piles full of multi-floral rose and bittersweet that has literally killed hundreds of my trees.  Burning it all on New Years and it will be a great party.

 

 multiflora Rose is the bane of my existence  . If you need any diesel fuel let me know . 

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8 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Three more cutters and then onto the promised land.

The 1/3 event may very well cut as well.  I don’t buy that event being suppressed at all.  When has the WAR ever underperformed once in the last few winters or an arctic boundary arrived faster than expected 5-6 days out when we have any semblance of a WAR or SER? 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 1/3 event may very well cut as well.  I don’t buy that event being suppressed at all.  When has the WAR ever underperformed once in the last few winters or an arctic boundary arrived faster than expected 5-6 days out when we have any semblance of a WAR or SER? 

Sure. 12/28, 12/31, 1/3...did I miss any?

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Until the pattern actually changes this is what we all get.  The High pressures keep running out ahead of the Lows.  Theses Highs need to be coming as the Lows are coming or following very closely behind.  Never put you money on a CAD (Retreating Highs) and that seems to be the fault of a poor Pacific set-up pattern.  I really hope the Pacific gets its act together or else this will end up being the proverbial "monkey wrench" that ruins a potentially great weak El Nino Winter set-up.

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its been some bad luck and some bad timing on these threats with cold retreating, The one time we had some confluence or building cold its was congrats RIC or dry weather.

That's deemed somewhat normal with cold air/arctic around.  However, eventually the odds with a pattern like that favor a winning pattern. But this pattern right now won't get it done at all.

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1 hour ago, ApacheTrout said:

Good, concise explanation. 

The problem we have is the μ has shifted warmer, while our memory of μ has remained the same. 

Ha ha!  zactly...  I stopped shy of venturing there in that verbose rendition...

The memory has an interesting way of interfering with objectivity ... It seems, mental data parts company from empirical -based data at times. Particularly, in those that assign a 'personal' value to matters.  

But... yeah, I agree we are 'changing the mean' - as I put it before.  How much... how that may express (or not) relative to circumstance and so forth ... meh, too murky of a subject matter.

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20 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Give it up, yall. Winters will be like this from now on. Snow will be a rarity.

Well no, the past 20 years have been some of the snowiest we've ever seen. I'm shocked we haven't had more bad years.

As far as this winter goes, the moment of truth is only 3 weeks away. Either the warmies will look foolish and be forced to eat crow or the forecasters will hide in their bunkers to escape the warmies. 

Fun times

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11 minutes ago, Greg said:

That's deemed somewhat normal with cold air/arctic around.  However, eventually the odds with a pattern like that favor a winning pattern. But this pattern right now won't get it done at all.

Sure, But to much of a good thing could also be a bad thing, To much of a block and threats will end up in the Mid Atlantic region if it does set up, Then watch what happens on here if that would be the case after these cutters.   lol

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