SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 The 28th I think has a better shot than NYE. I say that because it feels like NYE needs perfect timing on many factors while all the 28th needs is the system to trend less amped over time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Jeff looks to cash in. SNE, not so much. Lots of time for it to cut more. My eggs are going in the 28ths basket, This one should get suppressed to more of a SWFE so i'm feeling pretty good up here for at least something along the frozen line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Will probably be another rain event, Gfs is really warm now. There’s a really good cold source. We just have to hope confluence improves just a bit-work is needed but not a huge amount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We definitely have a chance, but it needs some work. We're underdogs but not out of it yet. Underdogs can still win 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 It’s going to be an icestorm in interior SNE. Snows to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s going to be an icestorm in interior SNE. Snows to the north we pray for big ice .. its been awhile 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 I like many on here have been watching that for a few days but I myself can't get fully invested yet do to how far out in the future it is. If it holds and I mean "If" then we could salvage this December. Otherwise, it's fantacy until it becomes a reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just now, Greg said: I like many on here have been watching that for a few days but I myself can't get fully invested yet do to how far out in the future it is. If it holds and I mean "If" then we could salvage this December. Otherwise, it's fantacy until it becomes a reality. Yeah I def wouldn't get invested in either 12/28 or 12/31-1/1 yet...both could be complete skunk jobs. This is the classic period where the cold dumps west of us first, so we are still quite susceptible to cutters....we could turn them into nice SWFEs if things break right, but nobody should be shocked at all if we end up with 2 cutters in between the cold shots. Scooter made this point many times over the past week or so and he's right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 When was the last time the Canadian models actually did well? Winter '15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just now, Hoth said: When was the last time the Canadian models actually did well? Winter '15? RGEM has its moments....but it was on fire in 2015....but it did well in events like the 12/23 ice storm last year...really honed in on that. Can't remember the last time the GGEM scored a medium range coup though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Hopefully the ensembles are right with a few events over the next 10 days. They’ve hinted at a more CADish look for next week and might be correct. Since I’ll be gone at the end of the year for a few nights, lock it in. I see the GFS op went warmer again next week which isn’t a surprise, but still wedgy inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: When was the last time the Canadian models actually did well? Winter '15? Like never, But it always get some play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully the ensembles are right with a few events over the next 10 days. They’ve hinted at a more CADish look for next week and might be correct. Since I’ll be gone at the end of the year for a few nights, lock it in. I see the GFS op went warmer again next week which isn’t a surprise, but still wedgy inland. I'm checked out as far as intense investment until mid January...if something works out sooner, great.....but I won't be melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully the ensembles are right with a few events over the next 10 days. They’ve hinted at a more CADish look for next week and might be correct. Since I’ll be gone at the end of the year for a few nights, lock it in. I see the GFS op went warmer again next week which isn’t a surprise, but still wedgy inland. GEM ensembles are pretty wedgy too for next week. Not quite as much as GEFS, but they show it. Hopefully we can eject that primary eastward much sooner which will definitely be key to producing a more wintry scenario....the only other way is to somehow speed up the northern stream diving in from NW Canada and have it whiff on a phase and press high pressure down before it can cut all the way....but scenario 2 seems more unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2018 Author Share Posted December 21, 2018 You guys should take the icing idea along the way there... Not seeing much indication that's registering to the reader... but, if the N/stream remains active, and with very recent NAO progs indicating that may be the case, ... -NAO/-PNA with SE ridge is ice event climo - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Real Icing events are rare....And I don't mean a lil bit of Freezing rain over to drizzle at the tail end of an event, but a real Ice storm. Everything has to be just perfect for a real icing event to take place. It just seems/is very rare. I'll believe it when I see it type of thing. More times than not, it changes going forward and you either end up with a more wintry scenario, or a warmer wetter scenario and not the ice event the modeling showed earlier on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 They are rare and they are memorable. Dec 1964; Dec 2008 in Central Mass. I'm glad they are rare. I own a house. I don't want to be driven out of it by a falling tree. I like electricity and gas. Heat is wonderful. So, Yeah, give me snow on snow on snow as it gets colder and colder. But, if not, another damn cutter won't be the end of the world. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You guys should take the icing idea along the way there... Not seeing much indication that's registering to the reader... but, if the N/stream remains active, and with very recent NAO progs indicating that may be the case, ... -NAO/-PNA with SE ridge is ice event climo - I actually have to be mindful of those now considering my more favorable climo at the new dwelling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Greg said: I like many on here have been watching that for a few days but I myself can't get fully invested yet do to how far out in the future it is. If it holds and I mean "If" then we could salvage this December. Otherwise, it's fantacy until it becomes a reality. This month has gone to heaven. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mK3iSglbZUM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 OP Euro is very cutter-looking next week....7+ days out, but just sayin'....this could end up more CAD or it could end up a full blown torch cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Euro defintely wanting to torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM has its moments....but it was on fire in 2015....but it did well in events like the 12/23 ice storm last year...really honed in on that. Can't remember the last time the GGEM scored a medium range coup though. GGEM is better in phasing in ocean lows, while gfs will be out to sea. RGEM is a better model than both gfs and nam inside 36 hours imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: OP Euro is very cutter-looking next week....7+ days out, but just sayin'....this could end up more CAD or it could end up a full blown torch cutter. 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro defintely wanting to torch. For the 28th? Looks inevitable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: CMC is a lot colder New England has a chance for some snow with this Ahhh the 200+ hour GGEM. Always fun to imagine what could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 EPS stuck at 51 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 EPS are embracing the cutter this run for 12/28. Some hints of a threat there for 12/31 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 20 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: For the 28th? Looks inevitable Yes. Especially for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yes. Especially for NYC. NYC is typically not the best place to be to try and cash in even if this turns into a SWFE...they need it really cold on the front end with the high further west...very little CAD there in the midlevels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: NYC is typically not the best place to be to try and cash in even if this turns into a SWFE...they need it really cold on the front end with the high further west...very little CAD there in the midlevels. metfan violently disagrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now