OSUmetstud Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Idk, the -NAO looks fairly real to me on the 500mb charts, but its just east-based. The lower heights over Greenland may be hurting the calculation a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 20, 2018 Author Share Posted December 20, 2018 That looks neutral to me ... perhaps agreeing with the CPC numbers from last night. But then ... East-based may ultimately mean 'neutral' in hard numbers, because there is no distinction in the total NAO integration for west or east character. For reference, the CDC NAO calculates the index using this virtual box: [(35-45N, 70W-10W) - (55-70N, 70W-10W)] That's available right on their web-source. The CPC ...I'm not sure where to find their exact lat/lon coverage without deeper tedious research using an ever increasingly greed/profit smeared Internet ...making the virtue of the web ever disintegrating and an egregious and annoying venture... Thus, I don't care enough to deal with that frustration so - But, should the CDC and CPC have variation in their spatial domain (I actually kind of doubt they do, but one never knows...) that "might" account for discrepancies. Here's last night's from CPC, indicating dip (maybe) way out there D10-ish... Not very confidence inspiring, otherwise, the neutral appeal: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 James and Bob getting a brief spinup Friday? Waterspouts in December...just like in Yore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 The internet is a beautiful place. One just needs to understand where to go and how to use it....like anything in life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: James and Bob getting a brief spinup Friday? Waterspouts in December...just like in Yore As long as I am on a plane flying at 6am, have at it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Started a Grinch storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Christmas 1980 was pretty intense. I remember it well, despite only being 12 coldest Christmas day night ever, winds were sustained 30s and gust to 55 for a good 30 hrs, absolutely brutal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 32 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The internet is a beautiful place. One just needs to understand where to go and how to use it....like anything in life. Random hardo post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 58 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Idk, the -NAO looks fairly real to me on the 500mb charts, but its just east-based. The lower heights over Greenland may be hurting the calculation a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 why was QC Omega talking about the PV in Europe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: why was QC Omega talking about the PV in Europe? Technically Greenland is a Danish territory? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Random hardo post Not if you read all of Tip’s post. Not random. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 I moved the last bunch of storm related posts into the storm thread. Continue the discussion there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Signal for a winter storm NYE/NYD on 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 UKMET at 72 isn’t even same league as NAM and GFS. There continues to be a big split on the 24th with the American models vs the UKMET/Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mm maybe... It was, as of yesterday, drawing up a two week long negative curve, plumbing to some -2.5 SD mid way at the CDC only. The CPC did not indicate that same variance showing most members and the mean of all members, combined, nearly neutral right out to the end ..some two week's worth. Both can be valid projectors for the NAO. So which one does one choose? ...Naturally, the one that indicates the deeper curve right? heh Seriously though, there's that, ...and, it was relatively new as a signal to begin with - the new numbers tend to publish the morning after the nightly computations, which is any moment ..so we'll see if CDC's numbers might have been the beginning of something. I tend to think not though? At least ...preliminarily ... because, the CDC is not benefiting from 'continuity and confidence' ... Continuity in this context means a consistent trend ... without it, the bad weather forecaster allows themselves to being led on by the peregrinations of fractals... ( tongue-in-cheek for excursions imposed in/of/by chaos ). I mean... we're moving along in over a week of neutral butt-bone NAO; we can either light the torches for the opening winter games ceremonies, or... look at it intelligently and stay the course until a more substantive reason to alter. But I'm lecturing and ranting over morning coffee... point being, I wouldn't trust that - for now. But again, we'll see if the CPC curves at least dent for f sake... I appreciate both lectures and coffee. Thanks Tip (and Baroclinic Zone for the earlier response). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Big New Year's Signal on the models, its still 10+ days away, but the signal is increasing for a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 35 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: UKMET at 72 isn’t even same league as NAM and GFS. There continues to be a big split on the 24th with the American models vs the UKMET/Euro Well American models don’t show an event so hoping u are infering Europe’s are a solid dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Well American models don’t show an event so hoping u are infering Europe’s are a solid dusting The GFS has shown something on and off but basically flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 You can see the ssw starting to poke through at the tail end of the op at h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The GFS has shown something on and off but basically flurries Can you elaborate just a tad.....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 I dont know if you guys noticed, but pivotalweather now has soundings available for anywhere in north america for the rdps, nam, gfs, fv3 gfs, and GDPS. Pretty cool. GDPS and RDPS soundings have notoriously been hard to come by. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2018122000&fh=12&r=ca_e&dpdt=&mc= 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 And just like that the FV3 says no snow for you on Christmas eve, but I will give you rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Euro looks pretty good for Christmas Eve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Little sharper with that trough for the 24th, Some lt snows now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Euro would prob be enough to get it done for a white Xmas for most of SNE. It's a little dry on qpf with like 0.05 but I like the vortmax tracking where it does with the neg tilt there. That usually overperformer look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Euro has a potent vort but surprised how dry it is. It can’t really get a surface reflection and inflow Going. Despite that, probably a mid level magic band somewhere in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1-3” lolli 4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: 1-3” lolli 4” I think it’s less than that. Probably an inch maybe two in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Christmas saved once again. Back to back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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