ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: I wonder if people were worried about global warming on New Year's 1876? Watching the ball drop in times square with thy swimming trousers on? Oxen hath not need the wool blankets. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nice bagginess there SE of LI. Strong HP quite evident Turning that event in a CAD SWFE would be a nice way to turn the tide on the month so far. Esp if we can get something small on the 24th or 26th as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We didn't get a grinch last year. Didn't take me long to falsify the statement. I actually falsified it 7 minutes before you did lol...but exactly right...it snowed last xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 This would be ok if this were to happen. Really need that EPO to turn negative. A very negative NAO is great but need a negative EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Turning that event in a CAD SWFE would be a nice way to turn the tide on the month so far. Esp if we can get something small on the 24th or 26th as well. I’d prefer 1-3” on the 24th if given the choice , though that one seems like a far reach around. Does the EPS give it any support at all? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’d prefer 1-3” on the 24th if given the choice , though that one seems like a far reach around. Does the EPS give it any support at all? EPS has a weak signal...but yeah, it's moisture starved at the moment. Still enough time though for it to sharpen just enough for an inch or two, so we can see if that happens over the next couple days. Model guidance prob needs to get this obscene cutter out of the way first. 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I actually falsified it 7 minutes before you did lol...but exactly right...it snowed last xmas. Yeah what was supposed to be last year's grinch on 12/22-23 turned into a pretty nice ice storm....even Scooter was prancing through icicles hanging from the trees in Weymouth which isn't easy to do in mid winter...nevermind in December. Then we got the Xmas morning snow two days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS has a weak signal...but yeah, it's moisture starved at the moment. Still enough time though for it to sharpen just enough for an inch or two, so we can see if that happens over the next couple days. Model guidance prob needs to get this obscene cutter out of the way first. Yeah what was supposed to be last year's grinch on 12/22-23 turned into a pretty nice ice storm....even Scooter was prancing through icicles hanging from the trees in Weymouth which isn't easy to do in mid winter...nevermind in December. Then we got the Xmas morning snow two days later. It was nice to get a taste of Worcester for a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Some more slow improvement in the 11-15 day too. Still gradient like, but certainly not getting worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 58 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: The fact that this has happened every year in recent memory definitely has something to do with a shifting climate. It’s not normal and I know for a fact it makes most in this forum uneasy. I’m 72 years old. I remember numerous times in my childhood when we would see spectacular heat in winter. It’s 1 day. If Coastals that bury us were 400 miles further west we’d see it then as well. With that said, there is climate change but events that are warm outliers don’t prove it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 End of EPS are also starting to look like week 3 the other day....showing some real promise...still need the real PNA push, but you can see it building. Wouldn't surprise me if we had a shot or two near or just after New Years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: I’m 72 years old. I remember numerous times in my childhood when we would see spectacular heat in winter. It’s 1 day. If Coastals that bury us were 400 miles further west we’d see it then as well. With that said, we there is climate change but events that are warm outliers don’t prove it. IF he wants to point to a set of events, prob the back to back Feb warm spells of that magnitude in 2017 and 2018 are a better example. The frequency of such type events would increase with CC. Cutters in December happen all the time...they happen in mid winter too. The only difference CC would produce is maybe you hit 67F in 2018 instead of 65-66F in 1975....but that is a minimal sensible wx difference. 2-3 days of 70F in February is much tougher to achieve...and having it happen twice in two years is more of a "Footprint" of CC than cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: End of EPS are also starting to look like week 3 the other day....showing some real promise...still need the real PNA push, but you can see it building. Wouldn't surprise me if we had a shot or two near or just after New Years. Yeah I posted above the improvements near the west coast look better. Getting a better Pacific for sure and some hints of an event or two as you said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Also some signs of ridging into greenland and maybe trying for the davis Straits too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Like Ray, I have no concern whatsoever that our time to rock will come, but admittedly, I've had so many bad wx days right around Christmas that it'd really feel nice to just have some wintry appeal. Last year in DC wasn't bad, but I haven't seen a snowy Christmas period since 2002. Yeah you missed it by one year....last year was pretty cool. 2013-2016 was a pretty bad stretch....so at least you weren't here for those....2013 was painful....had like 17-18" pack nearly wiped out and for many it all was. 2014 and 2015 never had anything to begin with in December and 2016 was a bit frustrating with the front ender on 12/17-18 not being able to CAD enough to avoid the long warm sector. We did have some fun in the 2000s though....we still had some grinches, but some years we avoided them and others we made up for it. Like 2012 we had about inch of currier and ives snow Christmas morning. I drove trhough a warm front on the way to NJ though that morning and almost barfed in CT when I saw everything go brown and my car thermo spike to 50F. 2010 was cold and white when the retro storm of 12/20-21 got us enough to put 2-3" on the ground....and then boxing day added to it the day after Xmas. 2007 and 2008 were super fun leading into Xmas but the grinch got us both years on 12/24....brutal. The snowpack survived but it wasn't as nice looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I posted above the improvements near the west coast look better. Getting a better Pacific for sure and some hints of an event or two as you said. 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Also some signs of ridging into greenland and maybe trying for the davis Straits too. Yep, that was def the best EPS run in a while...I'd expect they slowly get better as we get closer to the changes. Hopefully no major setbacks, but that one had some actual promise getting inside 2 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 It’s coming, just stay positive and patient. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 4 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Got my first cell phone in 01, and could text then, so 03 for sure. yea was gonna say we texted in 03 on my work phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Definitely not overly favorable for the last 10-days of December to have this for a Euro snow map. Hopeful for a few inches up here to freshen things up for Xmas but Nature needs to share the wealth a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 1 hour ago, LurkerBoy said: 46/45/40...? Ginx post doesn’t come close Dumb 3 days ave max temp records Dec 23rd to 26th Boston area, suck on this for awhile climate change guru Maximum 3-Day Mean Max Temperature for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 62.3 2015-12-25 0 2 62.0 2015-12-26 0 3 58.0 1888-12-26 0 4 56.0 1893-12-26 1 5 55.7 1893-12-25 0 6 55.3 2003-12-25 0 7 55.0 1915-12-26 0 8 54.7 1964-12-26 0 - 54.7 1889-12-26 0 10 54.3 1982-12-26 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 What a melt from Lurking Weenie. If the pattern dictates a cutter here, but snow for the Midwest, I guess that is AGW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: IF he wants to point to a set of events, prob the back to back Feb warm spells of that magnitude in 2017 and 2018 are a better example. The frequency of such type events would increase with CC. Cutters in December happen all the time...they happen in mid winter too. The only difference CC would produce is maybe you hit 67F in 2018 instead of 65-66F in 1975....but that is a minimal sensible wx difference. 2-3 days of 70F in February is much tougher to achieve...and having it happen twice in two years is more of a "Footprint" of CC than cutters. 1930 was the 2nd warmest 5 and 3 day stretch in Boston history in Feb behind 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 16 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Definitely not overly favorable for the last 10-days of December to have this for a Euro snow map. Hopeful for a few inches up here to freshen things up for Xmas but Nature needs to share the wealth a bit more. Any snow before the ball drops is gravy in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 19 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Definitely not overly favorable for the last 10-days of December to have this for a Euro snow map. Hopeful for a few inches up here to freshen things up for Xmas but Nature needs to share the wealth a bit more. December futility at ORH ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 So with a favorable eps track and op track , we’re discussing day 7 snow maps? I mean people that don’t know wx do that. We are better than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 You can see the decent snow in PA...you get that to come eastward with a bit better vortmax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: December futility at ORH ? At BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: December futility at ORH ? Would need to stay at a trace to tie the record in Dec 1999. Pretty unlikely given the pattern isn't a disaster the final week of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Would need to stay at a trace to tie the record in Dec 1999. Pretty unlikely given the pattern isn't a disaster the final week of the month. Would u say the set up toward end of the month has a potential icing look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Would u say the set up toward end of the month has a potential icing look Still too early to say much...but the EPS today def looked icier and more SWFE-ish than the previous runs...it could easily flip back to less CAD in subsequent runs, but it is something to watch. 12/23 last year actually didn't start looking icier until once we got to about D4-5, and we're still 9 days out from the 12/28 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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