WinterWolf Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 45 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: yes, I lived in Bristol Ct at the time and picked up a quick 8 inches...right on the northern extent of the better snow......forecast up til that morning was 15-20, something didn't phase together I guess and a 24 hr event turned into a 6 hr one still a solid hit and it snowed briefly 3/hr If I remember correctly....that was the Virga Storm here??? Virga for the whole afternoon and early evening...snow couldn’t bust through here for hours...we lost a ton of precipitation to that here...thats why we ended up with like 8 or 9 inches, instead of the big amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Winter kicks into gear next week. We’re on the cusp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Winter kicks into gear next week. We’re on the cusp I hope so. The Goofus still looks bleak. But it’s the goofus after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: I hope so. The Goofus still looks bleak. But it’s the goofus after all. Modeling today other than op Gfs starting to pick up Mjo moving into stage 7-8. Once that started getting picked up, we’ve started to see subtle moves in a faster direction . Started with weeklies last night . Probably kind of a step down week next week and if timed right we get a snower or two 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: You can regenerate precip on a stalled system with spokes of vorticity going around the ULL...the precip just tends to be more localized as already mentioned. We saw this in march 2001 in spots in NH that got around 40 inches. The other way is to basically have completely separate waves along a stalled frontal boundary and in that case, the precip shields would remain much more robust...but then you are almost talking about more than one storm even if the snow is nearly continuous. Moncton NB managed 63.4 inches from jan 31st to Feb 2nd 1992. Really cool looking evolution. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 58 minutes ago, Hoth said: One wonders if the upper bound on one of those extreme systems is a bit higher in the present climate. More available moisture, higher water temp anomalies, etc. What would a repeat of 1888 max out at now? Wonder what type of measurement techniques they were using back then, if any? I mean 58" in Saratoga NY is pretty insane if they were just sticking a ruler in at the end and measuring depth. Almost seems impossible--especially for a spot that isnt getting much orographic help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Modeling today other than op Gfs starting to pick up Mjo moving into stage 7-8. Once that started getting picked up, we’ve started to see subtle moves in a faster direction . Started with weeklies last night . Probably kind of a step down week next week and if timed right we get a snower or two Weeklies have it there but week 3 and beyond. No guidance has MJO in 7/8 next week or the week after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Weeklies have it there but week 3 and beyond. No guidance has MJO in 7/8 next week or the week after. The point was they started sensing the forcing this week . The reason they had delayed things until mid month was they were stalling it in stage 4. Now it’s continuously sped up each cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: The point was they started sensing the forcing this week . The reason they had delayed things until mid month was they were stalling it in stage 4. Now it’s continuously sped up each cycle I don’t think this is fact. The natural progression brings it back to the left side of the circle barring unforeseen circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Funny...how would he know Worcester beat him so handidly? A telegram arrives in the mail some 10 days later...aunt Hilda laments the death of the crops in waist high drifts...scooter rips the telegram in two pieces and kicks a rooster lol Two weeks later Dendrite receives word of his kicking the rooster and bans him from the news sheet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 2 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, there aren't many ways to really get that done. Stall the system and remain in the narrow moisture flux is definitely one. But historical tales of widespread 4 ft monster blizzards are most likely exaggerations of our typical blockbusters. The extreme totals happen on a much more localized scale. March 1888 and February 1969 are likely the upper bounds of what a nor'easter can produce on a regional scale before petering out. Gotta add in a meso-scale component like upslope or lake effect to take those storms into new territory. Like those events that leave 60" in 4 days once every few years for the mountains. But yeah regional scale without added lift from some secondary mechanism that's very difficult to do 36+ with purely synoptic scale lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 21 minutes ago, weathafella said: Weeklies have it there but week 3 and beyond. No guidance has MJO in 7/8 next week or the week after. He's rushing the pattern it's no earlier than after the new year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: He's rushing the pattern it's no earlier than after the new year Post 1/1 (NLT 1/10) and we’re rocking. Normal caveats apply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 48 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Moncton NB managed 63.4 inches from jan 31st to Feb 2nd 1992. Really cool looking evolution. You know I was thinking about this discussion on the way home, yes just like this. Great find Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 2 hours ago, mreaves said: Slamming the telegraph tapper in rage. Slant stickers in Lunenburg stop Stole my snow stop Sleighing decidedly poor this spring stop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Slant stickers in Lunenburg stop Stole my snow stop Sleighing decidedly poor this spring stop ... .-.. .- -. - ... - .. -.-. -.- . .-. ... .. -. .-.. ..- -. . -. -... ..- .-. --. ... - --- .--. ... - --- .-.. . -- -.-- ... -. --- .-- ... - --- .--. ... .-.. . .. --. .... .. -. --. -.. . -.-. .. -.. . -.. .-.. -.-- .--. --- --- .-. - .... .. ... ... .--. .-. .. -. --. ... - --- .--. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 It's gonna get wet. The Grinch commeth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It's gonna get wet. The Grinch commeth. Dayum, 4"? I might move up another spot in the wettest year rankings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Just now, Hoth said: Dayum, 4"? I might move up another spot in the wettest year rankings. Euro has about 2.5" for your area, that's still a really wet day, ha... either way, going to be some decent rains over a wide area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Lol,.2.7" here should be fun It's gonna get wet. The Grinch commeth.Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 4” for my hood..I don’t buy that at all lol. GFS will cut that in half or more by Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Euro has about 2.5" for your area, that's still a really wet day, ha... either way, going to be some decent rains over a wide area. Wanna trade places? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 41 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You know I was thinking about this discussion on the way home, yes just like this. Great find I took a road trip to Camden ME for that storm. Big snows forecast for ME never materialized...4" with near blizzard conditions.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 I wish that warm front would just blast through here. I really don’t need any extra low level forcing over the CAD cold dome. 18z GFS has low/mid 60s for much of SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 26 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It's gonna get wet. The Grinch commeth. I'll cross my fingers that the downsloping shown there verifies for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: I wish that warm front would just blast through here. I really don’t need any extra low level forcing over the CAD cold dome. 18z GFS has low/mid 60s for much of SNE. Overdone but we will watch as some runs have developed a sts like meso embedded in the huge tropical feed. Tors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Jan 04 was a nightmare at work for me but I learned a lot of lessons that proved useful for last year's epic cold stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: He's rushing the pattern it's no earlier than after the new year More like mid January, pattern still looks like garbage before that. MJO still stuck in phase 5 into the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Overdone but we will watch as some runs have developed a sts like meso embedded in the huge tropical feed. Tors? lol C NH...where S winds go to die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 The rainfall totals on the models cover some decent geographical areas. Seems to be two axis of lift. Here's the new 00z NAM lol. You'd guess the heaviest axis may be a bit tighter than this, not as widespread. Quite the moisture train on most of these runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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