psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: If we transition to more of an EPO ridge vs a PNA ridge there won’t be any blocking on the Atlantic side. At this stage it’s too early to say for sure this will be entirely PNA induced An epo ridge dominant pattern is colder but way less snowy than a nao blocking based pattern. I'm not in favor of that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not a good EPS run towards the end. Hopefully just a bad run. I been busy today, but just glanced over today's guidance. This here is a sh*t the bed run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 An epo ridge dominant pattern is colder but way less snowy than a nao blocking based pattern. I'm not in favor of that trend. Lol dont see an epo ridge either on that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: An epo ridge dominant pattern is colder but way less snowy than a nao blocking based pattern. I'm not in favor of that trend. I’d be shocked at this point if we don’t get a solid period of -NAO in Jan/Feb. Too much guidance out there consistently pointing to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Wonderdog said: That was an attempt at humor. Well i'm having a bad day..... sorry. I'll laugh next time.....promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 16 minutes ago, Ji said: 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: An epo ridge dominant pattern is colder but way less snowy than a nao blocking based pattern. I'm not in favor of that trend. Lol dont see an epo ridge either on that map There isn't one. That being said, not sure why the Goose thinks there wont be any NA blocking if there is an EPO ridge. Maybe its one of those meteorological impossibilities. I suppose the EPS weeklies need to be reprogrammed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 28 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Without blocking I assume storms may form and track under us but not slow down and deepen so timing becomes more of a factor. its not the worst thing as long as NS is in the MA. also as long as the STJ meets up in the middle of the conus, you could have overrunning events. Were that not the case, yeah bits and pieces come through with little/no fanfare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Not a good EPS run towards the end. Hopefully just a bad run. The polar vortex centered over the North Pole....go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: There isn't. That being said, not sure why the Goose thinks there wont be any NA blocking if there is an EPO ridge. Maybe its one of those meteorological impossibilities. I suppose the EPS weeklies need to be reprogrammed. It pretty much is impossible. DT has has videos before explaining that. The downstream pattern makes it extremely hard. You might be able to get an east based weak -NAO but that’s about it. See 93-94 and 14-15 where more or less the NAO was positive the entire winter both times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 20 minutes ago, Ji said: 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: An epo ridge dominant pattern is colder but way less snowy than a nao blocking based pattern. I'm not in favor of that trend. Lol dont see an epo ridge either on that map There is that too lol. But I was simply dealing with his statement. Not sure what it had to do with my EPS comment. This run simply consolidated the PV over the pole and lost both the epo and nao ridging. Probably just a bad run given all the trends the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It pretty much is impossible. DT has has videos before explaining that. The downstream pattern makes it extremely hard. You might be able to get an east based weak -NAO but that’s about it. See 93-94 and 14-15 where more or less the NAO was positive the entire winter both times So this.... what the weeklies (and cfs/U.K./jma) are all showing, is impossible? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is that too lol. But I was simply dealing with his statement. Not sure what it had to do with my EPS comment. This run simply consolidated the PV over the pole and lost both the epo and nao ridging. Probably just a bad run given all the trends the last few days. Really not worth worrying about it unless this becomes a habit over the next couple of days. Even then I probably won't be concerned because..... Vegas, baby!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It pretty much is impossible. DT has has videos before explaining that. The downstream pattern makes it extremely hard. You might be able to get an east based weak -NAO but that’s about it. See 93-94 and 14-15 where more or less the NAO was positive the entire winter both times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It pretty much is impossible. DT has has videos before explaining that. The downstream pattern makes it extremely hard. You might be able to get an east based weak -NAO but that’s about it. See 93-94 and 14-15 where more or less the NAO was positive the entire winter both times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It pretty much is impossible. DT has has videos before explaining that. The downstream pattern makes it extremely hard. You might be able to get an east based weak -NAO but that’s about it. See 93-94 and 14-15 where more or less the NAO was positive the entire winter both times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It pretty much is impossible. DT has has videos before explaining that. The downstream pattern makes it extremely hard. You might be able to get an east based weak -NAO but that’s about it. See 93-94 and 14-15 where more or less the NAO was positive the entire winter both times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So this.... what the weeklies (and cfs/U.K./jma) are all showing, is impossible? That was my question. Of course, his answer was that DT showed that it was, well, pretty much impossible. And we all know he is the master of meteorological impossibilities. Looks like we may need to get some of the model physics updated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Someone help me out here. I think @psuhoffmanis trying to tell us something. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 28 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It pretty much is impossible. DT has has videos before explaining that. The downstream pattern makes it extremely hard. You might be able to get an east based weak -NAO but that’s about it. See 93-94 and 14-15 where more or less the NAO was positive the entire winter both times Many of our best snow periods came during a -epo and -nao regime. That is what seasonal guidance has advertised for Jan and feb. Thats why many are excited. A -epo + nao pattern is "ok" but not something to be that excited about. Sometimes they work but often they are better for places north of philly and ice or mix to rain events here. It's difficult to get a -nao if the epo ridge is too extreme as that would tend to favor troughing downstream in response. But if the epo ridge isn't too extreme you can get a ridge bridging across into the nao domain too. That's actually our ideal look for snow in the mid Atlantic. It requires an extremely weak PV and negative AO but that's what the idea was. Furthermore the EPS doesn't show an epo ridge. It simply lost the ridging on both sides so I have no idea what your post had to do with my comment on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Lol I've seen many things that dt said were meteorolgically impossible happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Many of our best snow periods came during a -epo and -nao regime. That is what seasonal guidance has advertised for Jan and feb. Thats why many are excited. A -epo + nao pattern is "ok" but not something to be that excited about. Sometimes they work but often they are better for places north of philly and ice or mix to rain events here. It's difficult to get a -nao if the epo ridge is too extreme as that would tend to favor troughing downstream in response. But if the epo ridge isn't too extreme you can get a ridge bridging across into the nao domain too. That's actually our ideal look for snow in the mid Atlantic. It requires an extremely weak PV and negative AO but that's what the idea was. Furthermore the EPS doesn't show an epo ridge. It simply lost the ridging on both sides so I have no idea what your post had to do with my comment on the EPS. I think that's what he meant. An extreme EPO ridge and western -NAO block probably wouldn't be able to coexist, but a slightly negative EPO and NAO would. His statement was a bit misleading though and one would interpret his words as him saying ridging cannot occur in both areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just now, Ji said: Lol I've seen many things that dt said were meteorolgically impossible happen Yeah that's essentially the point I was making, but without even mentioning DT initially. Then he tries to back up his odd and illogical statement by literally saying 'because DT said so'. lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 44 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Really not worth worrying about it unless this becomes a habit over the next couple of days. Even then I probably won't be concerned because..... Vegas, baby!!! Always high pressure in the casino. Pressure to eat, gamble, drink, ladies. You will need a vacation after that vacation. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 21 minutes ago, Ji said: Lol I've seen many things that dt said were meteorolgically impossible happen Yup - and with few exceptions most folks here are not trying to sell advertising space on their web site with a motive to have the dramatic incite interest/followers and thus raise revenue. Thus the more followers, the more dramatic the drama becomes - a self feeding frenzy. Still think if someone actually put together the right team with the focus on weather in the right way, they could put TWC out of business. Heck, there's probably about a dozen or so of the mainstream posters here who could do that very thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Always high pressure in the casino. Pressure to eat, gamble, drink, ladies. You will need a vacation after that vacation. And did you ever notice that once you get inside, how difficult it is to find the exit? They do that on purpose to keep you there - just one more spin, one more hand, one more roll. The psychological and neurological elements at play in the design of a casino are more complex than the win percentage of the DC snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 The euro was kind of jumping right to the end result. The cfs weeklies get there but a week slower. They look a lot like the euro at the end early January. I think we still get there either way but maybe the analogs that suggest it's January 15-20th on are going to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 18 minutes ago, RDM said: And did you ever notice that once you get inside, how difficult it is to find the exit? They do that on purpose to keep you there - just one more spin, one more hand, one more roll. The psychological and neurological elements at play in the design of a casino are more complex than the win percentage of the DC snow hole. Thin line between gambling and weather...most times you lose but you remember the big wins and it keeps you coming back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The euro was kind of jumping right to the end result. The cfs weeklies get there but a week slower. They look a lot like the euro at the end early January. I think we still get there either way but maybe the analogs that suggest it's January 15-20th on are going to be right. Cue the ‘this feels like the winter where the great pattern never gets here and we don’t see another 1” of snow until 2020.’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 18z GEFS flips heights AN in the AO/NAO domains right before the new year and continues to build from there through the end of the run. Pacific evolving but not quite there yet at the end of the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Cue the ‘this feels like the winter where the great pattern never gets here and we don’t see another 1” of snow until 2020.’ In 5-4-3-2....roll ‘em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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