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WinterWxLuvr

December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

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Great look on the EPS in January. GEFS keeps bouncing between meh and good. Maybe related to it flip flopping on the strat?

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44 minutes ago, Ji said:

here is the FV3 at 384..January 5th. The pattern looks horrible and a week of January is already in the books

 

fv3p_z500a_namer_65.png

384 op run and your cancelling?  Come on Debbie.  Sounds like Maestro bit you.  At least show an ensemble.  Your better than this...and you know it :) 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_65.png

 

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Great look on the EPS in January. GEFS keeps bouncing between meh and good. Maybe related to it flip flopping on the strat?

Good to hear.  Wondering when the "official" SSW alarm will be (or was) sounded, cause then we can factor it into when it shows up on the models.  Thinking the end of the LR Ens might be a reflection??  30ish days is lag time from my limited knowledge.

Anyone have thoughts or knowledge and want to hedge a guess?

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

384 op run and your cancelling?  Come on Debbie.  Sounds like Maestro bit you.  At least show an ensemble.  Your better than this...and you know it :) 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_65.png

 

Look at the Pacific tho. Just half of that setup is enough to cancel the party. We're probably overdue for this kind of setup.

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21 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Not ideal but this is a pretty good luck on the EPS....

EPS 336.png

Everything is right on track. Today's EPS day 15 is amazingly consistent with the weeklies for the same time from the 0z Monday run. For a 15/18 day prog this is amazing consistency. Yea the trough over the Conus is weaker but the look that matters for the pattern evolution up top is identical. Same in pna nao and epo domains. The pattern is progressing exactly as it's supposed too. 

Todays EPS for Jan 4

IMG_8025.thumb.PNG.e25ed6e8c639a3cb1a1bf90bea5dd064.PNG

weeklies from Monday for Jan 4

IMG_8024.thumb.PNG.8d64fc11259cdbfa093af6da67d23311.PNG

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1 minute ago, Vice-Regent said:

Look at the Pacific tho. Just half of that setup is enough to cancel the party. We're probably overdue for this kind of setup.

Unfortunately we were overdue for you to chime in. 

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3 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Look at the Pacific tho. Just half of that setup is enough to cancel the party. We're probably overdue for this kind of setup.

Agreed.  Not saying its good verbatim, but to @psuhoffman's point, pattern evolution may be rushed, and we can both agree that while theres no arctic express as depicted, PNA looks to be headed + and we lost the stupid red flame ball in the midwest.  It's not perty, but its progress.  

 

edit.....see psu's post above.  He types w/ all 10....I type w/ 2...

 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Unfortunately we were overdue for you to chime in. 

It's all cutter city garbage pattern. I would chime in if it was noteworthy. We need everything in our court these days to get snow at the shore.

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Just now, Vice-Regent said:

It's all cutter city garbage pattern. I would chime in if it was noteworthy. We need everything in our court these days to get snow at the shore.

Aren't you under water yet?

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Just now, Vice-Regent said:

It's all cutter city garbage pattern. I would chime in if it was noteworthy. We need everything in our court these days to get snow at the shore.

WTF? 

I'm not playing along.....go back to your corner and commence kickin stones.  Put safety glasses on though cause your vision already seems suspect.   

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22 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

It's all cutter city garbage pattern. I would chime in if it was noteworthy. We need everything in our court these days to get snow at the shore.

You complained about the torch pattern last February and we got a sequence of 4 nor'easters in March, 2 of which gave a decent bit of us measurable snow. 

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16 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

You complained about the torch pattern last February and we got a sequence of 4 nor'easters in March, 2 of which gave a decent bit of us measurable snow. 

A broken clock is right twice a day as it were. The jet stream seems to get all whacked out in March. I would count on us scoring big as much as torching this year.

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44 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Great look on the EPS in January. GEFS keeps bouncing between meh and good. Maybe related to it flip flopping on the strat?

Yes, I have been reading that around certain sites that the focus on the strat the MJO has been causing issues. I read that based where the model thinks the MJO will be, and all that goes with it ,causes some issues at times in it's forecast of the strat and hence the look up top. Today it has been flip and flopping. I believe more consistency with the Euro and the strat. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS starting to get colorful day 10-15

IMG_8027.thumb.PNG.6c7869d4a2add309b0914d33f30d5942.PNG

 

Those look pretty nice... did the other half of the EPS members just not have that many pretty colors as this half does?

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

Those look pretty nice... did the other half of the EPS members just not have that many pretty colors as this half does?

Yeah, he picked the better members. :) The other 25 members have some good hits as well but not to the degree these do. Like seeing a continual improvement on the mean though. Keeps inching up slowly but surely where we now have 2 1/2 inch mean through the cities and 4 inch on the PA line.

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This is highly relevant and most interesting, as I was wondering about this myself, regarding the consequences of a major strat warming ( with wind reversal ) versus a split. 

I copied and brought this over here as I think you guys might enjoy it.  This is an exchange between the co-founder of the site and Earthlight 

  1 hour ago, 33andrain said:

Well, we've lost a sizable chunk of GEFS members over the last 3 runs. We've dramatically lost the GEPS today. I mean...major changes toward PV consolidation. And the Euro is delaying any split day by day; now back to d10, after showing 3 days earlier just a couple of runs ago. Not saying it's not happening, but it's not trending the way of a split. Other people are content with the reversal. I am not content relying on that. A reversal yields a few weeks of Winter. A split keeps us in deep winter through February.

 

The bolded parts of this statement above are not correct. I think there is a bit of a misconception here regarding the stratosphere and the effects of a split. First of all, there is no trend toward SPV consolidation. The SPV is at an extremely weak state on all models and uwind at 65N at 10hPa is forecast to drop dramatically. The SPV is, at the very dramatic least, going to be extremely disrupted, displaced, and abnormally and anomalously weak for this time of year. Second, there is no research or data backing up what you're saying in regards to a reversal vs a split.

 

A significant reversal of zonal winds at the pole is a major warming event of the stratosphere. While impacts are not guaranteed, it almost always suggests high latitude blocking and a propensity for colder than normal air to move into unusual position. A split of the stratospheric polar vortex at multiple levels is an entirely different thing and can lead to varying impacts depending on where the split ends up, how the troposphere is involved, the heat flux involved, downwelling, etc. It's just not as simple as what's bolded above. Here's the deal. The stratosphere is about to undergo significant warming and a very, very notable zonal wind reduction and perhaps reversal. The stratospheric polar vortex is going to be extremely disrupted and displaced, perhaps split. Research suggests that during these significant warming events - even if a split doesn't occur right away - the likelihood of high latitude blocking and cold in the North/Eastern USA and parts of Europe increases dramatically. 

 

My suggestion: Worry less about whether a split happens or not on the OP models. It's going to happen eventually, just a matter of time. The signal we consistently see moving up in time is a major warming event and major reduction of westerlies near the pole. This is more than sufficient to suggest that high latitude blocking will develop and the pattern across North America, particularly the Northern 1/3 of the USA and Canada, will turn colder and more stormy. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, frd said:

This is highly relevant and most interesting, as I was wondering about this myself, regarding the consequences of a major strat warming ( with wind reversal ) versus a split. 

I copied and brought this over here as I think you guys might enjoy it.  This is an exchange between the co-founder of the site and Earthlight 

  1 hour ago, 33andrain said:

Well, we've lost a sizable chunk of GEFS members over the last 3 runs. We've dramatically lost the GEPS today. I mean...major changes toward PV consolidation. And the Euro is delaying any split day by day; now back to d10, after showing 3 days earlier just a couple of runs ago. Not saying it's not happening, but it's not trending the way of a split. Other people are content with the reversal. I am not content relying on that. A reversal yields a few weeks of Winter. A split keeps us in deep winter through February.

 

The bolded parts of this statement above are not correct. I think there is a bit of a misconception here regarding the stratosphere and the effects of a split. First of all, there is no trend toward SPV consolidation. The SPV is at an extremely weak state on all models and uwind at 65N at 10hPa is forecast to drop dramatically. The SPV is, at the very dramatic least, going to be extremely disrupted, displaced, and abnormally and anomalously weak for this time of year. Second, there is no research or data backing up what you're saying in regards to a reversal vs a split.

 

A significant reversal of zonal winds at the pole is a major warming event of the stratosphere. While impacts are not guaranteed, it almost always suggests high latitude blocking and a propensity for colder than normal air to move into unusual position. A split of the stratospheric polar vortex at multiple levels is an entirely different thing and can lead to varying impacts depending on where the split ends up, how the troposphere is involved, the heat flux involved, downwelling, etc. It's just not as simple as what's bolded above. Here's the deal. The stratosphere is about to undergo significant warming and a very, very notable zonal wind reduction and perhaps reversal. The stratospheric polar vortex is going to be extremely disrupted and displaced, perhaps split. Research suggests that during these significant warming events - even if a split doesn't occur right away - the likelihood of high latitude blocking and cold in the North/Eastern USA and parts of Europe increases dramatically. 

 

My suggestion: Worry less about whether a split happens or not on the OP models. It's going to happen eventually, just a matter of time. The signal we consistently see moving up in time is a major warming event and major reduction of westerlies near the pole. This is more than sufficient to suggest that high latitude blocking will develop and the pattern across North America, particularly the Northern 1/3 of the USA and Canada, will turn colder and more stormy. 

 

 

So essentially...the strat warming is gonna happen regardless (and the PV remains weak)...and the only real debate is over this "split"?

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6 hours ago, frd said:

Wonder what the accuracy of the Euro is to the GFS in this area of the strat.

I would simply assume that the superior physics of the Euro would equate to a better, more accurate forecast. 

 

I  am not sure about the outcomes here for our areas versus a split or no split. Seems the Euro and the Canadian have it and the GFS no . 

Judah says too difficult to tell at this time.

I know a couple days ago the GFS ensembles vs the op were not even on the same page.  

Alexey Karpechko gave a talk on SSW predictability. He found that last year's event was hinted at by EPS members 12-13 days out, predicted by 30% of ensembles 11 days out, predicted by 100% of ensembles 4 days out. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So essentially...the strat warming is gonna happen regardless (and the PV remains weak)...and the only real debate is over this "split"?

Correct. 

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9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So essentially...the strat warming is gonna happen regardless (and the PV remains weak)...and the only real debate is over this "split"?

Yes, overall things are progressing well for sensible weather impacts here.

There are three outcomes regarding the strat and I highly recommend you check out Isotherm's answer to my question he posted a few minutes ago, on his seasonal outlook post.  

You will get all the answers you need there. 

In a nut shell one specific outcome would raise the ante for a more severe sensible weather outcome, as Isotherm mentioned we just have to see how things progress. 

Again please go and read the update, its very informational and you will see a tie in to the MJO and a historical reference to something that happened before when the MJO was in a similiar location as to where it is now .  Isotherm's update is great as always.   

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The strat stuff is interesting and frd I love your updates so please don't mistake this for me saying I don't like your posts...but some are placing way too much emphasis on just the ssw. We have had some extremely snowy periods without a ssw. We have had blocking without a ssw. There are tropospheric forces that can disrupt the PV and we have seen those working so far also. The long range seasonal guidance was already predicting a blocking pattern well before a ssw was on the radar. There is also a chicken or the egg factor here. And I've seen some mention that there may be some correlation between a ssw and warm mjo phases so there might be a link between our warm intermission right now and this ssw.  But before the mjo and soi decides to throw up on us for 2/3 weeks the pattern was progressing just fine. And it now looks to resume where it left off around New Years. 

Now this is like all volcanoes are mountains but not all mountains are volcanoes. Yea a ssw is a good thing. We need a weak PV to sustain a block but not every ssw results in a nao block and not ever nao block is from a ssw. 

Additionally the obsession with the split is irrelevant to our snow chase. I think I would actually prefer it not to split. A severely weakened and perturbed PV is good enough and more predictable and stable. When the underlying factors are lined up favorably anyways stable is good. A total split could lead to a lot of volitility and perhaps even make it harder to get a stable favorable longwave pattern to lock in. Yea there could be some crazy results like a superstorm or arctic blast but it might not be here and it's less likely to be a stance 5-6 week pattern. Be careful what you wish for. We don't need exteme. Everything is lined up in our favor pattern wise to begin with. 

This stuff is fascinating and it's great to track and a ssw can help but I don't think it's the end all be all some seem to be making it. 

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The strat stuff is interesting and frd I love your updates so please don't mistake this for me saying I don't like your posts...but some are placing way too much emphasis on just the ssw. We have had some extremely snowy periods without a ssw.

Of course psu, likewise I love your updates, and there have indeed been many great winters without a SSW. There is way more to the upcoming pattern than just the evolution of this SSW event, or even the event itself. I still find the topic fascinating though, mother nature at her best.   

We have a lot to look forward to, and all the signs, even from months ago, gave us hope this winter would deliver, long before the strat stuff even showed up.  

Wishing we both get our wish of active tracking and and a snowy winter :

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The strat stuff is interesting and frd I love your updates so please don't mistake this for me saying I don't like your posts...but some are placing way too much emphasis on just the ssw. We have had some extremely snowy periods without a ssw. We have had blocking without a ssw. There are tropospheric forces that can disrupt the PV and we have seen those working so far also. The long range seasonal guidance was already predicting a blocking pattern well before a ssw was on the radar. There is also a chicken or the egg factor here. And I've seen some mention that there may be some correlation between a ssw and warm mjo phases so there might be a link between our warm intermission right now and this ssw.  But before the mjo and soi decides to throw up on us for 2/3 weeks the pattern was progressing just fine. And it now looks to resume where it left off around New Years. 

Now this is like all volcanoes are mountains but not all mountains are volcanoes. Yea a ssw is a good thing. We need a weak PV to sustain a block but not every ssw results in a nao block and not ever nao block is from a ssw. 

Additionally the obsession with the split is irrelevant to our snow chase. I think I would actually prefer it not to split. A severely weakened and perturbed PV is good enough and more predictable and stable. When the underlying factors are lined up favorably anyways stable is good. A total split could lead to a lot of volitility and perhaps even make it harder to get a stable favorable longwave pattern to lock in. Yea there could be some crazy results like a superstorm or arctic blast but it might not be here and it's less likely to be a stance 5-6 week pattern. Be careful what you wish for. We don't need exteme. Everything is lined up in our favor pattern wise to begin with. 

This stuff is fascinating and it's great to track and a ssw can help but I don't think it's the end all be all some seem to be making it. 

Great post. Considered writing something similar up as well but deferred because I didn't want to seem critical. I enjoy reading his posts because he does provide much useful information that I otherwise normally wouldn't see. Always seems that pv splits and ssw's are brought up when things seem dire but I think that is very far from the case here as everything looks promising for a great winter as is. I would be perfectly happy with just a continual disruption of the pv which seems to be the case for the foreseeable future anyway. So split or no split I am perfectly content where we stand at this point. And as you said, we see a split it and we are essentially rolling the dice on the outcome. Could roll a 7 and get a block buster winter but we could also roll snake eyes. 

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